Hot Take: Meyers is the best OF* the Astros have, and it doesn't look close. *Assuming Alvarez isn't counted as an OF.
I mean- if he hits with a 120 ops plus sure. I don't think that's going to last. Even if he can be average for the year that's pretty valuable dude. I think Pena has leveled up by the way. I'm buying stock in him having a 5 or 6 WAR year and finishing well over average in his ops+ (like 115-130 range.
Meyers isn't the problem. Smith, paredes, pena and now Walker ND Yainer are not the problem. Yordan had been a problem but likely to turn it around Altuve has been a problem and who knows about turning it around. Second base is where we could really use an upgrade. If Matthews can get hot for 3 weeks, I'd bring him up and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle
I'm not sure any of the OFs hit much over 100 wRC+ (or OPS+). Not counting Chas, I think Meyers can spot 25 points of wRC+ to the other OFs and still be as good an OF if not better.
I could buy that. Yeah- basically he needs to get to 100 ops plus- if you think Altuve can still be a 125 guy that probably makes them equally valuable. Smith has some dang good WAR for a 660 ops guy- if he gets to 110 he's probably better than Meyers from a value perspective. Maybe?
I'm doubtful Altuve gets to 125. On Cam, he'd probably need to be around 125 wRC+ to be better than a 100 wRC+ Meyers as I expect a wide margin in their defense even if the stats suggests it should be closer now (i.e., I expect both Cam's defense and Jake's offense to regress). I'm guessing Meyers will be in the 90s going forward. I'd think Cam would need to be at least 115 in wRC+.
Agreed on Altuve (unfortunately) and think you are right about Meyers headed forward. I think Cam could get to 115. I'm really high on him though.
Per 790: Alvarez hit in the batting cages today ___ He's eligible to return tomorrow, but Wexler doesn't think he plays this series.
It depends on what you are referring to. If you are talking about playing OF, he is among the best in MLB much less the Astros If you are talking about players, who happen to play OF he has been fine, but the issue is Altuve, Smith, and Dezenzo (maybe Chas?) should all be better when all aspects of the game are considered, by the end of the season. Who is better does not concern me as long as at least 3 of them are good as the season unfolds.
Brendan Rodgers is posting dramatic improvements in launch angle, barrel %, and hard hit %. He’s posting the lowest GB% of his career. His xwOBA is .320. So by the underlying numbers he has been an above average hitter. He doesn’t have a low BABIP, so it boils down to strikeout rate, which is by far the highest of his career. But even without an improvement there, he should be a .240/.310/.420 wRC+ ~110 player. An improvement in his k rate could have him in star hitter territory. After digging into it, I want him playing everyday for another 4-6 weeks and I’m comfortable with Houston riding him until the deadline.
I want to see Rodgers and Smith playing every day. Dezenzo should also play most days across RF, LF, 1B, and DH. Dubon, Caratini, and McCormick need to take a back seat for the next month while Houston finishes evaluating Rodgers, Smith, and Dezenzo. Caratini can still get worked in at C every 4th game or so and can PH when a LHH is called for. McCormick can still be a defensive sub in RF/LF and PH against LHP, which means he should get in most games but only start once every other week or so. Dubon can back up SS, 2B, and 3B which means he should only play every 3rd or 4th game.
Astros ended April 16-14 which was only a game off where I hoped they’d be. They are 4-6 in May when I hoped they’d be 6-4. So they’re ~3 games off where I felt like they’d be in a realistic good-case scenario. They need a hot streak, and having it come against the Rangers and Mariners would be ideal. Finishing these last 18 games in May 11-7 would be good. The June schedule is light so that’s when they’ll need to make hay and take the division lead.
The downside to this is that when Yordan comes back, this squeezes out either Smith or Dezenzo. It feels like as both of those guys continue to progress as MLB players, Altuve is playing more and more 2b. Playing Rodgers every day takes away that avenue of playing time for the rookies. Not for or against - just pointing it out. Edit - it just feels that way because he has played 2b the last 2. Before that it had been 11 games since he played 2b. He has played 38 games First 13: LF-10, 2b-2, DH-1 Next 13: LF-7, 2b-3, DH-3 Last 12: LF-7, 2b-2, DH-3 I expect him (hope) to DH today with Framber on the mound and Caratini seriously beat up.
I think the roster can handle 10 guys playing 90% of the time, that of course just comes at the “cost” of dramatically less playing time for Dubon and McCormick.
I feel like McCormick's days are numbered. If/when Smith has enough practice reps in CF and the Astros decide he can play there, Chas becomes expendable. And they aren't exactly playing him now. For him, the one good thing is the lack of options to replace him on the roster - Whitcomb?
