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It's the economy stupid, 2024 edition

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Aug 29, 2024.

  1. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Turns out Trump went above the 10-20% tariff on all imports (before he pause it), and 60% tariff on Chinese imports. That would already have been devastating. But I didn't think he would go above that so fast and so abruptly. The confusion and chaos was, however, fully expected. Still, I honestly didn't think that our economy would turn around this fast.

    Within a short 100 days, we went from being "the envy of the world" (as The Economist described it in October 2024) to possibly facing years of stagnation. The last time we experienced similar economic stagnation was during the Carter years, which was caused by multiple factors including the oil crisis, high inflation, and rising unemployment. But this time, it's all caused by tariff policies of this administration.

    10/19/24:
    The envy of the world | Oct 19th 2024 | The Economist
    The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust. Expect that to continue, argue Simon Rabinovitch and Henry Curr

    4/27/2024:
    Stagflation warning: It's time to talk about that 'dirty word' as markets wobble | Fortune
    There’s been a steady drumbeat of concerns about stagflation as recent data showed economic growth slowing sharply and inflation picking up.

    He described the first-quarter GDP report on Thursday as terrible, noting growth decelerated much more than expected to 1.6% from 3.4% in the fourth quarter.

    Meanwhile, the report also showed that inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, accelerated to 3.4% from 1.8% in the prior quarter.
     
  2. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Dems and libs still not owning up to their failures, hoping and preying on Trump failures to boost midterm chances.

    Maybe that's why we're headed to monarchal autarky.
     
  3. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Wait. Policies that are designed to slow down trade hurts the economy. Who would have thought?
     
  4. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    The Dems have to figure things out and move forward eventually but when the other side calls this shitshow governing they will probably win by default in the midterms...if we have legit elections. Who knows at this point?
     
    Invisible Fan likes this.
  5. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    I hear this a lot - about not owning up to their failures. I don’t know what you mean when you say it, but when I hear it over and over, it mostly sounds like fluff.

    Harris’s team knows full well that "it’s the economy, stupid," and they did focus on proposals to address that. But it wasn’t well received (though it’s 1000x times better than the mess we’re in - but whatever). What the Dems failed to do was propose something new - and exciting - that people could actually buy into. People weren’t willing to go for incremental changes, only sweeping overhauls. That’s their failure: not being able to offer something people can believe in. The real “owning up” should be about that - not about failing to grasp the economy’s importance.

    As it stands now, the Dems winning back one or both chambers of Congress would serve as nothing more than a check on the executive. They can’t push through any proposals - assuming they even have any - until there’s a new administration.
     
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  6. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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