Just for fun I looked up the trade on mlbtradevalues.com *full disclosure - They have been horrible in the past, but my opinion is that they have gotten much getter since they started charging for access. Therefore, I am not saying this is gospel, only that it is another piece of information/opinion on the value of this trade. They project total value: Blubaugh = $2.1M excess value Dezenzo $14.7 value - $4.4M salary =$10.3M Arrighetti $57.2M value - $32.7M salary =$24.5M Total trade value = $36.9M Donovan $45.2 value - $14.3M salary = $30.9M This may look like an overpay, but In this market, every team needs to pay above value to get an impact player. Looking at the perceived value to the Astros based on roster construction/needs this is very good value. These values are based on $9M per WAR, so they are only projecting Donovan to get 5 WAR from 2025-2027, which is extremely low in my opinion and an area of opportunity. (They project Arrighetti for about 6.4 WAR and Dezenzo for 1.6 WAR. Prospects are projected differently, so that isn't broken down for Blubaugh) To me this trade is perfect for the Astros.
It depends on what they got for him. Joe Musgrove. He has over 18 fWAR in his career, 3 different seasons of 3.3+, has averaged 3.1 fWAR per 30 games started, and has been an all star. He's also missing the entire 2025 season recovering from TJS which can happen to any SP, even Hunter Brown, and time. The Astros got Cole for him and don't miss him.
That value for Blubaugh is stupid. No other way to describe it. If you believe that nonsense then you have to agree that the Cards would still do the deal if Houston took Blubaugh out.
Not getting into the craziness of 3-way trades, and avoiding the idea of Houston trading Framber to an AL team (which I don’t think they’d do), I could see Framber to the Reds for a package headlined by Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, or Gavin Lux. The Cubs would probably avoid the Astros in trade talks, but Framber for Caissie and Triantos would be a fair deal. I like Cooper Pratt but MIL would need to add to it. The Mets have plenty of ammo to offer; a package around Baty or Acuna or Jett Williams makes sense.
I was simply entering another published opinion of values. I don't necessarily agree with ANY of them. I don't think Donovan will only get 5WAR in 3 years I don't think he will only make $14.3M in salary I don't think Dezenzo will only get 1.6 WAR in 6 seasons. And I don't think Blubaugh has a trade value of only $2.1M But I do think the trade is a fair one and good for the Astros. I don't know the Cardinals well enough to have an opinion if it's good for them.
*posts list of values from trade value site* “See? This trade is fair” … “I don’t actually agree with any of those values I just posted as evidence the trade is fair” lol well ok then
If you really like Donovan and are convinced of his breakout, cool. I’m just saying anybody can have a good stretch of 25 games to start the year, and over a full season last year, he was pretty ok. Certainly better than what we have at 2B. Betting on him producing 3.5+ WAR is something I would pass on. I can’t attach an all star level level price to this dude. I have problems contextualizing what 3.5 WAR means, so here are some position players in the 3.5-3.6 range from last year. Machado, Suzuki, Happ, Doyle, O’Neill Cruz, Bohm, teoscar Hernandez. It is possible I guess, but I don’t see it. He isn’t in that class. I’m certainly not assuming he can put up 3.5 for three years, never mind one break out year. Again, I’ll defer to others on trade valuation, but I just don’t want to pay 3.5 war price for a player who is a meaningful cut below that.
Here’s one from this list that makes some sense to me: Astros get: IF Gavin Lux IF Edwin Arroyo IF Sammy Stafura Reds get: SP Framber Valdez OF Chas McCormick Lux adds a lefthanded upside bat to the 2B mix and has another year of control. Arroyo and Stafura are very high upside infield prospects who fall just outside the top 100 but would sit firmly in Houston’s org top 6. A LOT would have to come together for this trade to make any sense. The Reds would need to be in the mix and feel like they have a shot. Houston would need to be in the mix and have several SP to show out to give them comfort in trading Framber.
I like this one. I think with the Reds hiring Francona, who is very close to retirement and w/ health issues, they need to be close to all-in and know it. I go back and forth on trading Framber. On the one hand, he really is at another level from every other starter on the roster, except Brown. On the other, the comp pick pales in comparison to what he can bring back in trade and he will, without question, be gone next year.
If you are talking about things that Dana might do if he has final word, I wouldn't disagree But unless the Astros fall totally out of it, there is zero chance Crane lets Dana sell on Framber
There is no way I would add Dezenzo to Arrighetti in that deal Donovan would be a great fit, no doubt. But Arrighetti isn't just a prospect anymore, he has proven the ability to get out guys at the MLB level. AND, he has the kind of high end stuff that "could" potentially make him a guy who is one of your 3 starters in an ALCS. Donovan has been unreal this year, and if you believe he is truly going to be a .950 OPS guy moving forward then you may be right But if he is more the high .700s guy he has been up to this month, Arrighetti and Blubaugh itself would be plenty
I'm not 100% convinced he will be gone Crane is totally opposed to LONG contracts. He isn't cheap though. 1. Framber will be 32 to begin next year, I don't think a lot of teams will be offering him deals over 4 years, even as good as he has been 2. Framber doesn't come across to me as the kind of guy who would want to go to the bright lights of NY, Boston, LA. I think one of those teams would have to offer a significant amount more than others (not just us) for him to want to go there. That doesn't mean there won't be other offers higher than ours, but it does take out a significan % of the teams likely to offer him huge money I think it's probably 60/40 that he goes, but I think he will want to stay as much as anyone has and he won't get the LONG term offers others have
I agree with most of what you said. Crane isn’t cheap. Crane would probably go $85M/4yrs today if Framber was willing. Crane would possibly even go to $110M/5yrs. But Framber is probably not that different from any of the other Astros pending free agents; he can see what other ToR SP have gotten and he probably sees something like $160M/6yrs as very realistic. Theres very likely a big gap, which is why Framber is a pending free agent and why he will likely reach the open market. I also have read that Framber loves NY.
He's a bit of a unicorn (being LH with a wicked curve and change) but ground-ball heavy pitchers have not typically aged well once their velocity drops over time.
Lourdes Gurriel and Jake McCarthy are sucking and Arizona has likely lost AJ Puk for the season. Astros get: IF LuJames Groover OF Jake McCarthy Diamondbacks get: OF Chas McCormick RP Bennett Sousa RP Forrest Whitley Groover was one of my favorite prospects in his draft year and his stock has risen since; he’s one of Arizonas top 5 prospects and I think he could be a long term answer at 2B or 3B. McCarthy is a LHH OF reclamation project. D-Backs get bullpen depth and an everyday LF. They have Lawler coming up so Groover is likely superfluous for them. I would consider this a steal for the Astros but on paper it’s a fair deal.
Yeah but Framber is a tank. Also, he actually struggles when he throws that damn sinker too hard. I think physically, he is as good a long term bet as there is. Mentally, less so. Still, he should get paid something just short of max fried.
I don’t see Houston’s needs changing very dramatically over the next 2 months. Here’s the list of lefthanded hitters on the expected sellers capable of playing 2B or CF: Brendan Donovan Gavin Lux O’Neil Cruz Lars Nootbaar Brandon Lowe lesser fits: Luis Angel Acuna Kameron Misner Alek Thomas Jackson Holiday Edouard Julien Willi Castro Jake Cronenworth Enmanuel Valdez Jake McCarthy Bret Baty Mike Yastrzemski Jake Mangum Noelvi Marte Edwin Arroyo
Framber is actually fine... just not as the ace. Take his mentality away from being the #1 and go get a true ace to take that role. Brown #2 and Framber can be our 3rd SP. Dude doesn't have the mental marbles
