Yes, most of the PCL is offensively offensive. eta: I believe the ERA leader last year was at about 3.6ish
eta3: upon further review, I totally screwed that up because I am moron. I quit. Here's the stats: https://www.milb.com/stats/pitching/pacific-coast/innings-pitched/2024?playerPool=ALL Gusto, Blubaugh, and Gordon stood out last year
Juan Bello @ Rome: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 unearned runs, 2 K Cole Hertzler vs. Fredericksburg: 4.1 IP, 2 H, ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Joseph Sullivan's 4th home run of the season was a three-run blast that put Asheville up 4-0 in Rome. It's tied at 4 now as Anderson Brito is struggling on the mound.
Walker Janek and Chase Jaworsky went 2-5 at the top of the Asheville lineup today. They both had two-run singles; Janek also stole two bases, giving him 6 on the year.
Kedaur Trujillo got Saturday off, but he homered in his second consecutive game to help Fayetteville score a 7-1 win over Fredericksburg. He now has three home runs this year. Trujillo is normally a catcher and his bat has played in the complex leagues. But with Jancel Villarroel and Carlos Cauro also on the Fayetteville roster, he may find time behind the plate a bit hard to come by, so that's going to put a little more pressure on the bat. Cauro also homered for the Woodpeckers; that was his second home run of the season. Ramsey David allowed two hits, walked one, and struck out four over three scoreless. Bryce Mayer got the win by throwing 3.1 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and striking out six.
Early 2025 returns on 2024 draft picks (wRC+ or FIP): 1. C Walker Janek 78 (no walks no power) 3. P Ryan Forcucci DNP (TJS recovery) 4. P Parker Smith DNP 5. P Cole Hertzler 2.40 6. SS Caden Powell 121 7. OF Joseph Sullivan 148 8. P Dylan Howard DNP 9. P Ryan Smith 4.51 10. P Ramsey David 6.21 (walks) 11. C Jason Schiavone 126 12. P Ryan Verdugo DNP 13. OF Bryce Boettcher DNP (college football) 14. P Ryan Mathieson DNP (out for season) 15. SS Drew Vogel 100 16. P Bryce Mayer 3.72 17. OF Ethan Wagner DNP (FCL) 18. P Grant Burleson 4.29 19. P Twine Palmer 2.62 So of 18 picks that signed: 5 pitchers haven’t pitched. 3 pitchers throwing well. 3 hitters hitting well. 2 pitchers throwing mediocre. 2 position players haven’t played. 1 hitting hitting mediocre. 1 pitcher throwing poorly. 1 hitter hitting poorly.
Jancel Villarroel is over 50 pa and has walked as much as he’s struck out. He’s yet to hit a HR but he does have 4 doubles and 5 steals. Hes played C, 2B, and LF. He’s only 20 so there’s a chance he could add some power. Well rounded on-base skills, defensive versatility including the ability to play catcher, enough speed and power to be a threat. He still has probably 2-3 years of development in him, but he’s a very interesting prospect and one of the few early pleasant surprises on the position player side this season. Hes probably the Astros prospect with the best odds of ever posting an MLB season with a .300+ batting average. Kenedy Corona quietly had a nice week. His k rate is under 30% and he’s got a double digit walk rate. He's not hitting for power but even if he just maintains what he’s done so far, his slash line will improve and he’ll profile as a solid MLB 4th OF. There was an article on MLB.com hyping Pascanel Ferreras, but I’m not seeing it. I don’t see him being viable at SS, he’s not hitting for power, and he’s striking out in 36% of his plate appearances. Hes a nice story as someone drafted so late having some success, but I just don’t see him as much more than a AAAA player. The sample sizes are all still too small, but there are a lot of good signs on the pitching side of Houston’s farm. AJ Blubaugh is performing like a future ToR SP. Jose Fleury looks extremely good. I’m really hoping Cole Hertzler and Bryce Mayer are moved up soon; they’re dominating A ball but at their age it’s hard to get too excited until they get to AA.
Overall I am pretty happy with this draft. I still have very high expectations for #3 Forcucci and #4 Smith when they get going. Hertzler, Powell, & Sullivan #5, #6, & #7 are all playing above expectations. Teen agers Palmer #19 (already looking pretty good), Wagner and Beck (have not played yet) all have a good chance to contribute. There are lots of guys we won't even see till after the next draft and that is the thing that really excites me. It shows a real change in philosophy that could see more players developed per year. After a few years of drafts like this one we could be competing with higher pick teams for good players developed per year. I like it a lot and hope it continues despite the the pain of not seeing a lot of results the first couple of years.
Mostly it’s just way too early to tell because so many pitchers are hurt and the sample sizes are so small. With only one big bonus draftee in Janek the expectations should be really low, and so far the pitchers are that are pitching are exceeding their draft slot. I am very cautiously excited about Mayer and Hertzler and Palmer. Sullivan’s strikeout rate is disappointing but it’s early and overall he’s been productive.
All of Houston’s farm teams have losing records. One thing I realized recently is that the Astros tandem starting pitching system (especially the teams who use 5 tandems instead of 4) very likely costs them minor league wins. Their very best pitchers are limited to 5 innings per start and only starting every 10th game, and their 10th best pitcher on each roster is starting every 10th game and getting 4+ innings every 5th game.
I don't think wins are important in the minor leagues. I would much, much rather have half a dozen legitimate prospects like many other organizations and have a bunch of 500 teams than win the AAA championship and still have to sign $20M per year FAs or trade players away to fill holes because there is nobody ready to step in as a starter when FAs leave. Full disclosure: I loved the Walker signing and still do. I love the Tucker trade. But internal replacements like Pena for Correa and Tucker for Springer/Reddick are much better and more sustainable.
I don’t think minor league wins should be any kind of priority, but I do think they matter, not just as a reflection of the quality of the farm system but mainly as part of developing a winning culture. Especially for younger players, you don’t want them spending their first 2 seasons as a pro getting used to losing. One of the things I thought Jeff Luhnow did well was highlighting minor league championships. That may have just been because he was trying to distract from how bad the big league team was during the rebuild, but I also think it was part of his strategy to develop and encourage a winning culture throughout the organization.
Sugar Land beat Tacoma 4-1 in the early game today. Brandon Walter allowed three hits and struck out seven over five shutout innings.
