I forgot to mention this but I was in Chicago for the weekend and attended Opening Day at Wrigley. King Tuck received a standing ovation. Maldonado hit a homerun. Yuli started for the Padres. Wild.
Update on the players sent to Toronto for Kikuchi where everyone here lost their minds. Loperfido - hitting .192 with a 36% K rate in AAA, about to turn 26 years old Wagner - hitting .224 with no power, has been bad defensively and is about to turn 27 Bloss - 0-4 with a 7.31 ERA, 2.13 WHIP in AAA after going 0-4 with a 6.91 ERA in 8 starts in AAA after the trade last season This board loves to overrate our marginal prospects.
In this trade in particular, I don’t think it’s that we all thought the prospects were that great, it was that we didn’t expect Kikuchi to be that good, at least that was my take. Once Kikuchi was as good as he was then the opinion of the trade changed dramatically. I still think Wagner is the same as he projected at the time: a league average lefty bench bat who is limited defensively. I don’t think the book is written on Bloss at all; he was rushed and his development disrupted; he still has the MoR upside he did when he was traded. Loperfido is the only one whose stock has gone down significantly since the trade; he was a prospect with notable strikeout risk when he was traded, and that downside is showing up, but it’s been exacerbated by a lack of power, not sure why. But his stock is definitely down.
The Astros tried to get him back this Winter in a trade for pitching. They just couldn't come to a deal.
Yeah, that was definitely part of it. I saw some wild takes about Loperfido last year though. He struck out way too much to ever be an impact player. I think if anything this trade is a perfect example of what this organization has generally been good at over the years. Maximizing (and developing) pitchers and identifying the right prospects in the organization to include in trades.
Agreed on this. It sucks that they could not find a way to keep Kikuchi and trade Framber for potential 2025-2031 production. Brown is showing that he knows which prospects to keep and which to shop, just like his recent predecessors.
Yeah, trading Framber for a bat and signing Kikuchi would have been ideal. I don’t know what the potential returns we’re looking like for Framber or if Kikuchi would actually have chosen living in Houston over LA but seems like that was an obvious way to improve this team.
I don't get why there is this strong press to trade Framber Valdez. Brown offered him around the league at the same time Tucker was traded to see if there was anyone willing to overpay - no one was. The Astros can always try again at the deadline - but I personally would be trying to ADD to this team based on what I have seen the first month. The Astros pitching IMO is good enough to get to and win a World Series. They have top end talent with Valdez/Brown/Hader/Abreu and lots of very good depth, a deep and good bullpen and they have pitchers in the minors that can likely help them and McCullers and Whitley too. If anything - I would be carefully looking around the game to see the cost of adding another near all-star bat to this group. I think lengthening the line up in the middle will make a big difference.
I have no knowledge of what other teams offered. All I know is that he is a TOR stopper and that should bring back a good return. I am not advocating trading Framber for the sake of trading Framber. I agree that the pitching is deeper than many are giving them credit for, and that adding run production to the lineup is the need this team has. This, and the fact that he is not coming back in 2026 are the reason he is the bullet that needs to be used. But if the return does not accomplish that then he needs to remain an Astro until/unless 1 of 3 things happen. 1) Other starters progress/perform to the level that the team is as good and deep without him. 2) The team continues to under perform until the post season becomes unlikely. 3) The season/post season ends and he becomes a FA. If the deadline approaches, the team is still lacking run production, and Framber's market has not picked up then maybe a SP with more control like Blanco, Gusto, or Arrighetti will need to be traded instead.
People seem to forget Framber had elbow inflammation last April. We were all in a panic about it but it turned out to be minor. If the Astros were shopping Framber other teams would have some concerns and aren't likely to make a huge offer for him.
The Astros are an all star 2B away from having a pretty stacked roster, so ideally adding that would be the net of whatever moves they make between now and July. But if it ends up being another seller’s deadline and Houston can get a Cam Smith level prospect for Framber, they should do it. They can backfill him with a Kikuchi type trade if needed.
I think if Brown can get a prospect similar to Smith - he would do the deal this morning. From what I was told, the players offered for Valdez were guys that were reasonably high on some teams prospect list, but players that had been exposed and were not the same level of prospect as the hype level was. The Astros also tried dealing Valdez to the Red Sox for a deal with Abreu coming back to the Astros in a package, but the Sox decided to back out before it got too deep. As for second basemen - I think at this point Brandon Lowe is the most likely possible target. Brendan Donovan would be very nice and one the Astros were talking about in a deal for Arenado, but it didn't happen. Lowe is off to a slow start - put a long track record of being good but not great. He could hit just about anywhere in the line up.
If the Astros can get a Tucker-like deal, sure. Most likely, the Astros strongest team in the near future will be 2025. If at the deadline, the Astros are struggling, then look to trade Framber. Until then, Brown should be looking to improve the team in 2025 first. 2026 should be a secondary priority. 2027 and on should be much much lower priorities. The Astros should be looking at moving value from years 2028+ to 2025-2027 (the earlier the better).
