People were apoplectic last year too. A lot of it was directed at Abreu, which was legitimate. This year the fear is broader (but mostly focused on Walker and Espada).
I don’t buy that Walker is cooked like Abreu. The underlying metrics don’t support that, and he doesn’t look like a guy who has physically lost it. Abreu looked ancient, bat was slow, could not hit a middle middle fastball over 93 mph. Walker looks like he is pressing and chasing too much. A regular old slump to start the year. He doesn’t look like he belongs in a Senior living community the way Abreu did.
I haven't done a deep dive under the hood of Walker's numbers. I will say though that there is a very good chance he has been playing at less than 100%, and I say that based on his defense, he isn't moving like he has in past years. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his body, so it is unlikely that he has just overall slowed down. He had a pretty slow start back in 2022 and rebounded. He is a really good player - you can win with him, he plays very good defense, has a history of hitting elite pitchers and at key times - real grinder with power .... but he isn't a natural hitter, he has always had some weaknesses, is strikeout prone and has holes in his swing.... why he is ideally a 6th hole hitter.
really think a restructured lineup could help Pena Altuve Yordan Paredes Walker Diaz 2nd base Meyers Cam Smith I love having cam going oppo with Jake in a hit and run. I'm ok with Rogers/Dubon. Pena feels like he needs more exposure to capitalize on the first few weeks. Hitting him first feels like a no brainer right now (granted, little league coach view). Altuve needs a little protection to see some more strikes, I think the two spot makes some sense for him right now. The off day today will help. There are signs of life and I'm ready for more!
Altuve will never "see strikes". 15 years of swinging at pitches in the other batters box or at his shoulders is never going to be deleted in pitchers' minds by 2 weeks of laying off. And he isn't even doing that. Altuve isn't a perfect leadoff hitter, but he's the best this team has. Moving Altuve anywhere will not help him because he doesn't take pitches.
Last year, this team swung too early and too often. Not making pitchers work was a problem, and became an area of focus to improve this season. So far, it looks and feels like they have over corrected. The MLB average for strikeouts looking is 24.2% (% of Ks, not of PAs or ABs) Yordan 46.7% Smith 35.7% Meyers 33 3% Walker 30.4% Rodgers 28.6% Pena 25.0% Walker is particularly troubling to me. His looking strikeout % the last 2 years have been 17.3% and 15.8%. He's simply not swinging the bat and/or nit seeing the ball. Bright side: it's early and still a small sample size. The good news is that this feels like it could easily balance out as they get used to the new team hitting philosophy of taking more pitches.
Maybe it is like dieting. Better to go all in, lose 35 lbs, and have to regain 5, than half ass it, lose 6 lbs and still be 24 lbs too heavy.
Per Fangraphs 2026 projected games started. Hunter Brown 25 - 2.2 WAR Spencer Arrighetti 24 - 1.3 WAR Ronel Blanco 21 - 1.0 WAR Colton Gordon 21 - 1.1 WAR Ryan Gusto 20 - 0.9 WAR Luus Garcia 20 - 1.4 WAR AJ Blubaugh 19 - 1.0 WAR Miguel Ullola 19 - 0.5 WAR Cristian Javier 18 - 1.0 WAR Lance McCullers Jr 17 - 1.3 WAR Hayden Wesneski 14 - 0.7 WAR J P France 15 - 0.8 WAR Ethan Pecko 14 - 1.0 WAR As you can see, they don't project any high end, TOR type starters, but this organization is loaded with options who should be good enough to get at least .05 WAR per start (1.5 WAR over 30 starts) which makes the depth very good. Injuries to one of the top 2-3 starts may hurt, but outside of that, this rotation should be ablevto absorb several injuries without necessitating a trade, costing orospect depth, like in the past.
Here I go over this point again.. Tucker is a premium player entering his prime - he needs to be marketed as a Vlad Guerrero type game changer . Whether you agree with it or not, he has put up numbers in the same tier. As an organization, if you decide you can't give out $450 million+ contracts that's fine, but you don't keep letting marquee players run down for nothing when you have no farm. You assess whether your team is in mediocrity, which it was with both Bregman and Tucker, and get shopping early. Know the market and what prospects you like. Constant depletion over a 5 year period takes it's toll. 2023 the writing was on the wall, you squeek into the playoffs due to the weakness of everyone else, still lose to a terrible Rangers team, and deludedly tell yourself -- hey, we're almost there! Not even close. Procrastination is opportunity's assassin. Letting Breg run out with nothing in return, leaving it late and getting a very average Paredes for Tucker instead of Paredes and Suzuki + prospect Cam, it's a lot to overcome for an already mediocre team. I hate to see Alvarez and Altuve on such a meh team because they're big moment players, but you might have to give yourself a 2 year window to rebuild and deal them quick to make up for an inability to see the obvious the past couple years. It was all set up so beautifully by Luhnow.
I could not disagree with you about Tucker than I do right now. The return for Tucker was amazing. It is extremely likely that even if they traded him 2 years ago, thecretuen ends up being less. It was an absolute homerun. When you are a team trying to compete, you keep star players as long as possible until their value no longer exceeds their potential return. Trading him before last offseason would he sacrificing potential and some of that value . ( balance of value on the field vs trade value) The absolutely could have traded Bregman but wanted to keep him and made a legitimately good offer. I would not have changed anything about either of them. As for Framber, I still think trading him is a better option than getting a comp pick for him. No chance he is back in 2026.
You simply don't seem to understand what a one year rental player will fetch, even one as good as Tucker. Tucker is no different than Betts or other stars that got traded in their final year with a team. It also didn't help that Tucker was/is extremely interested in being a free agent and testing the market out (though there's some talk about him being open to an extension with the Cubs now).
Yes, I agree with you and think that we have been adjusting to that new emphasis. Walker in particular, has also been rung up on some really great/ borderline pitches early on. One or two of those called balls could impact the sample size. Yordan I'm not worried about , but i just wish for more. There is an extremely high chance the dude rebounds and posts an OPS + above or around 150. I feel like he sometimes doesnt want to swing hard. I want my sluggers to want to crack the lumber. I mean , he is a great hitter tho. I am kinda pissed about Tucker and Bregmans hot start. Feels like they never did that here. As much as we can seem to produce and help pitchers maximize, our hitting training is not doing the trick.
