Paging BimaThug: How much cap space can we have if we decline FVV, trade Cam/Reed?

Considering the opponent's records, an average team should have finished with a record of 10-9 in the games without FVV. Considering the Rockets have a 66% winning percentage with FVV, the Rockets going 10-9 without FVV suggests that FVV is worth about 11.5 wins in 63 games (assuming he doesn't get hurt again). 11.5 wins is fringe 1st Team All-NBA.

I know FVV isn't worth 11.5 wins as the Rockets are weak at guard such that losing him hurts more than it should, but there is no way the Rockets going 10-9 over a weak schedule should cause anyone to think FVV (Edit: or another ballhandler) isn't critical.

 

I just don't see an improvement unless it is a star trade like Booker. Booker wouldn't be the PG, but he's a good enough playmaker to bring Amen along slowly at the PG. Going cap space route hurts too much. MLE PGs aren't better.

Granted, I'm kind of souring on Booker as I think Amen is ready to start at SG, FVV is a great PG fit with him (low usage, plus off ball defender, always in the right place) and the cost for Booker would be high.

 

Here’s a question: can the Rockets push FVV to a 3/$75m contract, trade Dillon/Jabari/filler for Durant at 125% and sign Harden to the full MLE?

FVV/Harden
Green/Reed
Amen/Tari
Durant/Tari
Sengun/Adams

 

I’m trying to think which teams are going to be lining up to give Fred $30+mil per year. Maybe a team like the Rockets were a couple of years ago. A young bad team with lots of cap space. But, would Fred want to play for a team like that at this stage in his career.

I would say that the Rockets and Fred appear to be a good match if they can come to a reasonable agreement. Rockets need a PG and Fred probably would like to play for a contender. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

I think a lot people really seem to focus on if FVV is a good enough starting PG and that the Rockets need a better backcourt.

I think it's much less about a specific player or position. The rockets need an elite playmaker and/or perimeter scorer. It doesn't really matter what position he plays. If you have that elite player, you can mix and match lower tier guys around him.

If Jalen Green was on Anthony Edwards' level we could easily find a guy that can go stand in the corner to play next to him.

I also don't think getting a center really changes what our primary need is.

There's a 0% chance Harden turns down his $36MM player option to play for the mid-level and be FVV's backup.

 

There is no need to trade Cam or Reed for a couple of years, they are cheap......now Alpi and Jalen are not, and FVV is very expensive for what he does.


DD

 

That's not totally fair though because the issue then wasn't just that our backup PG sucked, it was that 2 of our 3 PGs on the roster were injured and Jalen was filling the role as a starter because we didn't have a PG at all who could hang with starters (Apologies to Aaron Holiday but he gives up too much size for 30+ minutes on most nights against opposing team's PGs)

FWIW, I think a point guard is critical - just not a $44mil one - Fred is the 5th most expensive PG in the league right now - I would take Derrick White(23rd) or Jrue Holiday(16th) over him and given Boston is likely going to have to get rid of one of those guys this offseason to control costs, I think they might actually be "gettable"....but hell, give me Colin Sexton or Marcus Smart for far less money while you are bringing along Amen/Reed for the role.

I like Fred and hope he stays with the team but his money and his minutes both need to come down for him to make sense here because we need to either be developing a long term solution or trying to acquire an upgrade. Unless Fred goes "Toronto title, Fred" in the playoffs, I don't see any reason to keep Fred around at the cap hold/minutes he currently has.

 

If we were to decline his option, I think Fred would go find three or four years somewhere and get about 25 million a year.

 

Very small chance he gives up even more money than he already has, but in the above scenario he would obviously play more than FVV.