This sounds like a movie I would have watched before I was married and then started going to church...
Right but as far as I know there aren’t any publicly available stats for minor league spring training games.
https://www.milb.com/corpus-christi/roster/transactions/houston-astros A bunch of guys were reassigned to AAA ahead of tonight’s game. My guess is all of those guys will be in either Corpus or Sugar Land, since to me it doesn’t make sense to have a kid fly from Florida to Houston for 2 games then fly all the way back to Fayetteville or Asheville. If that’s true then the big surprises would be Tyler Whitaker and Joseph Sullivan being assigned to the upper levels. We’ll see if my guess is true in a couple days.
Quincy Hamilton and Collin Price are having a pretty good night. Hamilton homered and scored twice, while Price finished a home run shy of the cycle.
Notes from Astros Dev tweets: 19 year old Mexican P Juan Fraide up to 96 in DSL ST IF Hector Salas crushing balls in DSL ST (notable he was not brought to the US after hitting well in the DSL last season and being 20 years old) P Amilcar Chirinos up to 96 C Jason Schiavone with a 434’ 109mph HR in minor league ST game yesterday. Rough exit velo barometer: 115+ means a player has elite power potential (Yordan’s max is 118) 112-114 means a player has at least plus power potential (Altuve, Diaz, Walker, Paredes, Meyers all have max EV in this range) 109-112 means a player has at least average power potential 104-108 means a player has at least viable power If a player can’t post triple digit max exit velo, they are probably very limited offensively. I’m starting to wonder if the gun they’re using in ST is hot by a tick or two.
Reports had Fraide was up to 95 when he signed a few months ago. Nothing you've posted so far has seemed exaggerated, imo. At least not anymore than can be expected from an account whose job is to hype prospects. Schiavone will be an interesting follow. I usually am more excited for 11th round picks than most of the day 2 picks, as it's usually a pretty good spot to sign an overslot guy (eg Ochoa, Clifford, and Gusto). Schiavone seems much more comparable to Chad Stevens (2021 draft) as an up the middle defender with power potential and a questionable hit tool. It also seemed a little inefficient to use the 11th round pick on a college catcher after taking Janek in the first. With Boettcher playing football, the only 4 year college hitters from the draft are Janek, Sullivan, Schiavone, and Vogel. Obviously Dana and co know a lot more than me, but I have a hard time believing that a guy who struck out a quarter of the time in his best season at James Madison is going to hit in the pros.
I think they skippped the 7th batter slot. The radio guys went from Dazenzo hitting the back to back home run, to Dubon with the double. Only problem is that Caratini's original slot was between those two.
Logan VanWey with 1.2 scoreless and Wilmy Sanchez striking out two in a 1-2-3 9th inning was very nice to see. Sanchez did very well at both A stops last season so I'm hoping he starts off in Corpus.
Initial reaction is shock at how many guys are not listed and must be either hurt or kept in the complex to focus on a particular adjustment. Nehomar Ochoa, Yamal Encarnacion, Zach Cole, German Ramirez, Anthony Huezo, Jeron Williams, and Abel Mercedes are all notable prospects with full season experience who are nowhere to be found. Oliver Carrillo, Fernando Caldera, Ray Gaither, Glenn Otto, Cole McDonald, Jean Pinto, Engel David Peralta, Sandy Mejia, Walker Brockhouse, and Jack Blomgren were also MIA. Overall some pretty conservative assignments, which will hopefully translate to early good individual stats and minor league wins.
Further minor league roster thoughts: AAA: Excellent bullpen Decent rotation; Walter is a super sleeper Very good lineup with both high end talent and depth, Leon and Short will be added AA: Utterly stacked pitching staff Shallow lineup with no top prospects outside of Baez; Cole and Williams will help if added 5 catchers?! High A: Excellent sign for Brito and Bello to be assigned one stop from AA; risky but talented pitching staff overall Deep lineup with 8 high ceiling players but carries lots of risk A: Stacked pitching staff Weak OF but I really like Valencia; Nehomar being added would help 4 catchers?! Average IF but has some decent ceiling; German Ramirez would help
See the tweet I posted 2 comments above. I did just notice on the transactions page that Melton was assigned to AA; it’s also odd that on that tweet about rosters, Meltons name is the only one not in alphabetical order.
Snake Diggit's Top 120 Astros Prospects for Opening Day 2025: I went all out this year and it ended up being 40k+ characters so I've split it up over several posts. I think there's a lack of attention on deeper prospects, and a lot of future big league players spent at least some time not making Top 30 lists. Please keep in mind, I am a pure amateur and this is all just for fun. Spoiler: Snake Diggit's 2025 Astros Prospects: Grade 50+ (1-9) Grade 55+ (borderline stars): 1. RF/3B Cam Smith: I’m not going to regurgitate all the hype produced since Houston traded for Smith, but will just say that for now he looks like a truly elite prospect who could be a Kris Bryant level player. The only things keeping him from a higher grade are that he’s not at the top of the defensive spectrum and he has a short pro track record. But it was tempting to slap a 60 on him. Grade 50+ (a contending team’s 4th-6th best position player/pitcher): 2. 2B/SS/3B Brice Matthews: Matthews carries high strikeout risk, as evidenced by his 39.6% k rate in his small AAA sample last season. But there’s reason to believe his k rate to this point is inflated due to how aggressively he was promoted. He will still likely be a high strikeout hitter, but his other tools (well above average power, speed, and defense at 2B) could still make him a good player. For now he comps to someone like Zack Gelof, but Matthews is entering just his 2nd full pro season, and so there’s room for him to level up into a true star level player (in terms of value, think Brandon Lowe with more steals). The front office seems very high on Matthews, and I’m sure Dana Brown feels very invested in him since he was his first 1st round pick as a GM. 3. OF/IF Zach Dezenzo: Dezenzo is difficult to pin down because it’s hard to take much away from last season because he was hurt for most of the year, and it’s hard to get a firm opinion of his defensive value because he’s missed so much time and moved around a lot. He’s the type of player projection systems typically underrate, because based on his minor league numbers, he shouldn’t be that good in the majors. But factor in that his minor league numbers were deflated by injury, and that his deeper stats like exit velocity point to him having elite potential, and he looks a lot better. I’m a believer, and a .250/.320/.470 line seems very possible. I expect Dezenzo to get 300+ pa in the majors this season. How he’s handled early this season in the majors will be a big indicator as to how the front office feels about his future. Grade 50 (a contending team’s 7th-9th best position player/pitcher): 4. CF/RF Jacob Melton: Melton carries platoon and overall strikeout risk, along with carrying a bit of injury history, so for me he slots slightly below Matthews and Dezenzo in terms of overall value. But Melton has elite speed and baserunning value, carries plus raw power, and has shown that he’s likely to be a fine defensive outfielder (either in RF or CF), so he has a higher floor than either Matthews or Dezenzo. Brandon Marsh type of production would be a good outcome for Melton, but there’s room for more (or a lot less). 5. P Ethan Pecko: I’m playing the hype and a hunch here, but in his first full pro season and into this spring, Pecko’s stock has steadily risen, to the point where there’s a legitimate argument that he’s the best pitching prospect in Houston’s system. A 3.07 xFIP in AA in year 1 of pro ball is a pretty great sign, and the underlying numbers are there. Pitching prospects are always a dice roll, but I see Pecko as the best bet in the system to become an average or better SP. 6. C Walker Janek: It’s hard to believe that Janek was taken just 14 players after Cam Smith in last year’s draft. I won’t give much weight to his debut numbers, but those combined with the lack of time he’s gotten in big league spring games and the general early feedback on him has not been that positive. Still, for now we can anchor back to the fact that Janek was the consensus best catcher available in last year’s draft, with an elite arm and enough power potential to project as an everyday catcher. 7. P Miguel Ullola: It’s generally accepted that Ullola has one of the best fastballs in the entire minor leagues, and there’s enough talk about Ullola to peg him as a top prospect. I also like that Ulloa has back to back seasons of full, increasing workloads without significant injury history (although his exit from his last spring appearance was worrisome). The question will be to what degree can Ullola keep the walks in check. He has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the system, and has shown enough to project as at least an enigmatic bullpen arm. 8. P AJ Blubaugh: It seems like his prospect trajectory flattened over the offseason, and he didn’t get as much attention as Ullola and some others during the spring. But there’s a lot to like about Blubaugh: 3 potential above average pitches, back to back seasons of full workloads without significant injury, and solid underlying statistics. It’s easy to see a #4 SP there. 9. IF/OF Shay Whitcomb: I’m coming in high on Whitcomb, and its mostly because I am bought in on his 2024 AAA season, which was just short of dominant: 25 HR, 26 SB, 11% bb, 20% k, 123 wRC+ in 108 games. Projection systems have Whitcomb posting a very high k rate with middling power numbers, and while I don’t expect him to post the kind of power he showed last season, I also expect his k rate to be much lower than the 29% he’s projected for, since the projection systems aren’t set up to recognize when a player makes a sudden sustainable adjustment like Whitcomb did last season. His ZIPs projections have him as a league-average hitter with plus defensive value, a 2.5 fwar player, and that’s with the 29% k rate. I think Whitcomb has a great chance to be a very good bench player in the majors, with ceiling to be an above average everyday 2B or LF.
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's 2025 Astros Prospects: Grade 45+ (10-22) Grade 45+ (a contending team’s 10th-12th best position player/pitcher): 10. OF Kenni Gomez: A big part of this high ranking is me buying in on how Gomez looked in the extensive big league time he got this spring. He is just 20 but looked very comfortable out there against guys who mostly project for the upper levels and even some big leaguers. So far his hit tool looks better than it was graded, and it also looks like he’ll get to his raw power. He has a chance to be a really good, very well-rounded player. 11. IF Chase Jaworsky: Jaworsky has upgraded his defensive and baserunning projection since this time last year. He more than held his own in full season ball as a teenager, and has a chance to really break out if his power starts showing up in Asheville. His assignment to High A puts him in position to reach Corpus at age 20; any success in AA would likely leave him as a Top 100 prospect by the end of the year. 12. P Jackson Nezuh: A breakout 2023 draftee, Nezuh put up better numbers in pro ball than he did in college. I like that he’s had back to back seasons of 90+ ip. He looked fantastic in the Spring Breakout game. Success in Corpus could have him projecting as another Arrighetti level pitcher. 13. P Anderson Brito: a major breakout last year has his stock very high entering his age 20 season. His assignment in High A was a very good sign; he has a chance to move quickly past Asheville and get to AA at a very young age. Success in Corpus this season would see him on most Top 100 lists this offseason. He doesn’t have an ace’s build but he has ace level stuff. 14. OF Luis Baez: There are big questions about Baez’s defensive value, and that’s why he’s further down on my list. I feel confident he will be limited to a corner, and not be very good defensively there, so he’s going to have to hit, a lot. The good news is there’s not much question that he will have a big league caliber bat; it’s more to what degree he will produce. He has 30 HR, 130 wRC+ potential. 15. OF Joseph Sullivan: Fast-rising stock for Sullivan has him in position for a breakout 2025. Not a big kid, Sullivan still looks like an excellent athlete with speed, on-base skills, average power, and a high defensive value. He reminds me a bit of Joey Loperfido. 16. OF Kevin Alvarez: Alvarez was probably the best hitter available in this year’s international signing period. There’s a lot to find out about his defensive value but he’s as sure of a hitter as a 17 year old can be. 17. P Ryan Gusto: Gusto projects as a workhorse BoR SP or solid multi-inning RP. He’s gotten 3 consecutive years of 90+ ip. As far as pitching prospects go, Gusto is a fairly high floor/low ceiling guy. 18. P James Hicks: Another 2023 draftee who broke out last season, he doesn’t quite have the stuff of Nezuh and projects more closely to someone like Gusto. He has some of the best command in the system. 19. P Colton Gordon: Gordon is a big lefty who’s turned in consecutive seasons of a full workload. He doesn’t have huge stuff but there’s plenty there to project him as a #5 SP or bulk reliever. 20. P Juan Bello: being targeted by Dana Brown via trade all of a sudden becomes a reason to upgrade the ranking. But Bello was already coming off a really good season as a 20 year old in A ball and features a plus curve with 3 other potential average or better pitches. 21. OF Nehomar Ochoa Jr.: The 29% k rate in A ball is more of a yellow flag than red, because Ochoa was only 18, and his numbers around swing decisions and contact ability were pretty good. He has a cannon arm for RF, monster power potential, and underrated speed, all of which could get a lot of attention in Asheville if/when he gets there. He could shoot up this list over the next 4 months. 22. P Ryan Forcucci: He’s this low solely because of injury history. He would have been a 1st or 2nd round pick had he not gotten hurt. He just had surgery in June, so he likely won’t pitch in an organized game this season but will enter ’26 poised to move quickly under a monitored workload.
