[IKO] Amen Thompson to undergo MRI. Left arena in walking boot and crutches.

Correct. It’s shocking how bad they’ve been with Durant and Booker healthy. Not to mention they have one of the hardest schedules remaining. Top heavy teams just don’t work anymore in the NBA like in the past.

 

I think a top-heavy team can work. The Suns just have no one after Booker and Durant. As a team, they got a ton of shooters. Very little else.

 

They are 27-19 when they both play which is a 48 win pace. They just have absolutely no margin for error because they are pathetically constructed and can't absorb anything.

2-11 when Durant is out, 1-5 when Booker is out.

 

SAESON"S OVER

 

Something I learned the hard way once upon a time about ankle injuries:

There's absolutely no proof that braces and tapes and high tops prevent foot injuries. None, zero. For preventing the first time injury, there is no data whatsoever to support it which is very damning. For preventing re-injury, there seems to be a minuscule effect but all of the research papers behind them are funded by shoe and apparel companies.

The only real effect these things have shown is that if you are a person with chronic ankle issues, it will make you move more carefully and be more aware of your feet, that's all.

If you want to prevent ankle issues, any and all exercises to strengthen your ankle and the muscles that connect to your ankle have real results and do actually reduce the incidence of injury. Icing your ankles helps the tendons and ligaments last longer.

The reason you've been asking yourself "why doesn't every NBA player do this??" is because they know this. NBA trainers especially know this. The players who wear them are maybe the less scientific minded ones, and most likely like Curry they are doing it for superstitious reasons. Keep a lucky thing going. Could give them a feeling of safety, that allows them to focus on their game maybe.

It's the kind of thing that seems like it makes sense. But if you think just a little further about the force required for you to explode and land your body weight, those things don't stand a chance. If you were living in a placebo I apologize but placebos don't last long anyway, you're better off taking care of and strengthening your ankles.

 

Interesting, I didn't realize there's been some actual research on this. I always just assumed they helped because that was the common belief.

 

I know how it works, though your explanation isn't quite right. They don't try to 'make sure they win more than they lose' - they try to get equal money on both sides, have half the games go over and half under, and make their money on the odds spread. And in general, for teams or games without huge public interest, the line doesn't move much and it isn't set far from expected reality because the sharps will jump on it. On occasion they will try to 'win more than they lose' by taking one side, but in general they build the expensive marble casinos from the vig, not by winning bets. For the record, I consulted for a major gambling house - I'm not talking from theory.

Regardless, I was very precise in my wording. I didn't say Vegas predicted reality, I said Vegas is the best "when it comes to understanding the collective expectations". The line is set where they think half the population (and half the pros) will feel one way and half the other. So if they set the Rockets at 42.5 and the Magic at 47.5, they believe that the general public will agree the Magic are about 5 games better. Those were the general public expectations when the year began.

To come back now as some have done (not you necessarily) and say 'we all knew the Rockets would be better and 48-50 wins is a disappointment', is just wrong. If the average person truly believed that, they would have bet on it and the line would have moved to entice more to the other side.

 

^ exactly... vegas just wants a 50/50 split on the prop and they collect their vig from half of the betters...

the line has nothing to do with prognosticating.... except for maybe trying to predict public opinion to get that 50/50 split...

 

The first sentence is definitely correct. The second ... not so much. They absolutely have to prognosticate well. It isn't public opinion that moves the line (for most teams), it is the sharps. And if the line is bad, they will pounce. The line will move to compensate, but the casinos don't want the line moving too much because it's harder to balance early and late action, and they might get huge professional action on one side early that they can't balance and risk losing.

So while it sounds sophisticated to say the line is not a prediction but a way to balance bets, the reality is that the line does BOTH. Ultimately it is about the latter, but if you don't set an accurate line, you generally cannot achieve balance. Only a few situations (hugely popular teams or games) move more on public bets than on professionals.

Vegas predicts both public opinion AND actual outcomes better than anyone - they just do the latter to enable the former. (Again, in general. For some teams with huge public action it is different, but that is a tiny minority of lines)

 

"The Suns just have no one after Booker and Durant" - that's basically a top-heavy team

 

Denver is top heavy as well and they won a championship just 2 years ago. The Suns heavy part of the roster isn't the problem.

It is the $107M spent on no one. You can be top heavy with players better than 3-15 for the Suns.

 

All good - I thought your wording was very specific and I wasn't sure if that was by design or you were implying something else - that's why I opened with the statement "maybe I'm misunderstanding" - I now see it was the former. Thanks for clarifying!

 

I guess the real question is, who as a fan would you have expected to give you a higher pick without knowing a damn thing that would happen this season:

• The Suns with KD/Booker/Beal
• The Nets with Bridges and company

The Suns played in the competitive West and the Nets played in the shitty east. I accepted the trade from a long term perspective but was a little upset that we gave up this year's pick. However, I never did expect for Brooklyn to ever be as low in the standings as they are now. There was zero incentive for this team to tank, so the best case scenario would have been to win as much as possible, and for as horrible as the east is this year, the Nets would likely be looking at trying to get a spot in the play in.

So it's easy to prefer the Nets pick seeing the results thus far, but if the Nets were going to attempt to stay competitive with Bridges then really, the only best thing I expected is to have small odds at the lottery. So the fact that the Suns have imploded this year and we are likely around the same range that the Nets would of landed us, doesn't really mean much to me. At least we didn't lose a lottery pick, that's all. I doubt the Nets would be looking at the odds they have now have they kept Bridges.

 

as we agree... the goal is to get a 50/50 split - period. Nothing to do with predicting the outcome - just trying to influence the wagers that are being placed to get that 50/50.

if u prefer, they try to predict the opinion of the bettors (public or sharps) and set the line accordingly in an attempt to garner that 50/50 split. A lot of money goes down on 1 side, then the line moves to try to entice action to the other side of the prop. Again, nothing to do with predicting the outcome - just trying to influence where the money gets laid to get that 50/50.

 

Thank God! Hopeful Rocket highlights exciting to watch........ or worth watching........back in a couple of weeks...........

 

As I was saying.

 

The 94 Rockets were extremely top heavy. The 95 Rockets were also top heavy… just slightly less-so.

 

Hopefully he comes right in time to get some warm up games to get his legs back before the playoffs start.

 

I won’t repeat myself again, but it is just wrong to say “nothing to do with predicting the outcome.” People love to say that because it close to reality and sounds sophisticated, but it’s not truly accurate. They DO start almost all lines predicting the outcome. If they don’t, sharp money goes the other way. The line moves, but the exposure often remains. A bookie goes broke quickly if they set lines that are systematically different from real outcomes. The goal is 50/50 - on that we agree - but the only way to do that is to predict well on average.

Again, I personally know this - I’m not guessing or debating theory.

 

The problem is not necessarily 'top heavy team' so much as it is that the new CBA destroyed the buyout market loophole creating a pipeline of aging ex-All Stars to stacked teams to help fill out depth and give your top heavy guys rest against lesser competition. If Phoenix wants to win any game at all, they gotta play two of Durant/Beal/Booker significant minutes - there are no late career Blake Griffin, Boris Diaw, Marcus Morris coming in to gobble up some minutes to keep your team afloat two months before the playoffs and providing super sub abilities when your team needs it most.

But I would argue similar to you that in this case, Durant/Booker/Beal is paid like a top heavy team, but are not a top heavy team on talent necessarily which just exacerbates the issue.