[Pain] HUGE, self-inflicted Recession incoming due to Trump/Musk

He is clueless.

FDR's policies, the great deal, resusitated the US economy, kept it afloat, until the Great Depression ended, some 10 years later.

The US's pivotol role (military victories) in ending WW2---NOT THE GREAT DEPRESSION---led to decades global influence towards having its currency as the de facto global reserve.

 

This false belief that tariffs will increase domestic production is similar to the trickle down nonsense.

Republicans want to believe something they like will get a result they want and will makeup whatever BS to support it.

You’re not going to bring manufacturing back without enough subsidy to offset the labor costs.

It’s really just nonsensical. On one hand you want to extend tax cuts on corporations under the guise of job creation. On the other hand you want to charge these same corporations tariffs knowing full well they will just increase prices. The end result will be increased corporate profits on the backs of the middle class. Leading to increased stock prices = billionaires getting richer.

 

The accuracy.

Have you talked to your maga pops recently?

 

It also took around a decade of heavy postwar financial repression to un**** that 120% debt to GDP ratio. Rationing and forced war bond buying continued a couple years after Japan surrendered.
People were built differently back then. There were no Cares 1&2 helicopter drops to celebrate winning by surviving.

Interest rates from customer banks were capped to national rates while those bonds only offered 2-3%. Some of those policies like aggressive estate taxes and rate caps lasted to the 80s and onwards.

Trump and the billionaire adoption to crypto is more than a get rich quick infinite ponzi scheme.

 

I can only laugh atp

he’s now asking the MAGAts for money, and we know they’ll give it after losing their jobs and getting their benefits cut because they’re low IQ NPCs stuck in a cult

 

Does this mean it will be a 24-48 hour hard head fake?

 

The insider trading profits going on must be crazy.

 

I'd estimate that my IQ is 60 points higher than the average poster on this BBS. And 80+ points higher than yours.


GOOD DAY

 

Imagine boasting about your IQ LOL

 

The Grift is real.

 

All of trumps tariffs crap is performative. It will last less than a week and then he will declare he forced concessions from___, and MAGA will eat it up. Meanwhile, him and his cronies make bank shorting the market

 

The initial investment was in 2020. The initial investment is what we are talking about in terms of getting the ball rolling. Not everything is 1 party loves it, the other hates it. The plan from both parties has been to strip reliance on China region and domesticize chip production. It's not exclusive to democrats or democrat policies. Things were well on their way during Trump's term and covid shortages sped it up. Time , and spending on capex, will tell if tariffs help but it's a roll of the dice with merit.

https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm



We think that TSMC will be picking up the pace of bringing foundry three online, and will be similarly trying to get foundries four, five, and six up and running a bit more quickly. Say, before the end of Trump’s second term. But no one has said anything about that. What CC Wei did say – and this is important – is that TSMC would be producing the most advanced AI chips in America and that it would also be adding a research and development center in Arizona alongside those six foundries and two packaging centers.

This is really important because TSMC is going to spread its brain trust over two geographic locations, again mitigating its risks. And doing so might just keep World War III from happening in at least one potential scenario, which is a good thing. Now, we need to get to work on the other scenarios that are still out there.

One last thing: It is important to put that $100 billion investment into in perspective. TSMC spent $30.45 billion in 2023 and $29.76 billion in 2024 on capital expenses, and said a few weeks ago it was spending $40 billion in 2025. There is an average of $25 billion in incremental spending just announced per year over the next four years, but it is not clear if this is really incremental of if it is being shifted away from Taiwan and towards the United States. If capital spending goes back down to an average of $30 billion a year, then we know almost all of TSMC’s spending has shifted to the United States, and if it holds at around $40 billion a year, then the US will still represent two thirds of capital spending. It would not be long before as much advanced foundry capacity exists in the United States as in Taiwan.

The actual spending on capex in the US and Taiwan will tell us just how worried TSMC is about putative tariffs and Chinese invasion.

 

Open border with 300k illegals a month is gambling with lives. This is a trade negotiation tactic that should add jobs to domestic manufacturing and allow the GOP to parrot America first (even if stats don't overwhelmingly show it)

Howard Lutnick, the primary voice in Trumps ear about tariffs, has already said there could be a reduction in tariffs for Canada and Mexico. I don't see Canada being in the crosshairs for long at all.

Lutnick says Trump could reduce Mexico, Canada tariffs Wednesday - POLITICO

There are enough people who see this as a way for domestic businesses to spend and higher paying jobs to those in the bottom 90% who aren't a part of spending economy. We should all support more disposable income from working class salaries instead of managerial class only.

MICHAEL SCHULMAN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, RUNNING POINT CAPITAL ADVISORS

"Cutting taxes on individuals and domestic manufacturing and 100% immediate capex deductions will incentivize business spending as long as corporations believe the consumer will be there to spend. Investor reaction should overall be positive since disposable income may rise when these policies are passed"

 

Ok simple Jack

 

Thip CHIP act was signed into law in 2021, Biden's first year in office.
from the CHIP act, Biden provided financial incentives to TSMC---amidst loud / unwarranted criticism from the GOP and MAGA crowd---who then committed to a 2nd and 3rd facility in AZ

this directly contradicts your previous claim, on several posts, that Biden had nothing to do with AI

once again, your confused and all mixed-up. the US had never relied on China for chip production; China doesn't have the mfg capability to produce chip for itself,

you need to deal with the REAL WORLD, and stop "shoulding" around





i wish that you'd stop embarrassing yourself

 

The CHIPS act has brought back alot more manufacturing than just TSMC. Micron and SAMSUNG have announced plants as well. TSMC only announced their most advanced factory coming to USA after they were granted the funds by the biden admin.

Again you morons are going to pretend that the manufacturing booom that happened under biden is the results of Trumps tariffs and its hilarious. We're not morons in a cult. Zero republicans voted for the iRA which is responsible for hundreds of battery plants coming to USA.

We didnt manufacture solar panels before we passed the IRA. We have onshore the entire supply chain now even the wafers.

 

Trump 1.0 had nothing to do with it; no incentives provided, no announcement by the Trump admin..

Trump’s promised ‘manufacturing miracle’ in Wisconsin failed to materialize

​

in 2020, Team Trump avoided TSMC's initial investment in AZ like a plague​

 

Great to see the stock market powering higher today. Tax cuts, deregulation, cuts to wasteful spending (via DOGE), and the GAINS made from tariff negotiations will lead to incredible prosperity.

Investing Warning: Don't miss out on a powerful move higher simply because you can't separate your emotions relating to politics from objective fundamental analysis.

GOOD DAY

 

lol

It's not a subject of debate - it's a fact. You clearly are comfortable in your echo chamber and don't feel shame at wasting other people's time. This will be my last response to your trolling - as the definitive voice on semiconductor imports. The push to domesticize was fast tracked due to COVID showing how reliant the US was on the asia / china region for all chips (used in everything from cars to appliances to electronics), and the only exception to the semiconductor trade deficit was in 2018 when Trump placed sanctions on China.

You're welcome.

U.S. Overreliance on Imports: Impacts on Manufacturing | Manufacturing Industries | advancedmanufacturing.org
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed how 40 years of increasing dependence on imports and the resulting hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing has created unacceptable national vulnerabilities.

For instance, despite the fact that the United States is a world leader in semiconductor design and R&D, chip manufacturing occurs mostly in Asia. Only 12 percent of the world’s semiconductor chips are made in the United States, down from 37 percent in 1990. The overdependence of the United States on imports creates national and economic security risks.

US Exposure to Taiwanese Semiconductor Industry

But over the past decade, they have been become critical inputs in the production of a wide range of goods, such as computers, toys, appliances, and automobiles. Because of their critical nature in the production process and the difficulty (or impossibility) of finding viable substitutes, semiconductor shortages have had important global effects.

The result of these trends has been a systematic decline in U.S. net exports of semiconductors—that is, an increase in the U.S. semiconductor trade deficit. (One exception is the spike in 2018 that resulted from sanctions against China imposed during the Trump administration.4) Thus, the U.S. has become increasingly dependent on other countries to access semiconductors.



Figure 2 shows the breakdown of U.S. exports and imports of semiconductors across destinations and origins for 2021. Malaysia, Taiwan, and China are the largest sources of U.S. imports and important destinations for U.S. exports of semiconductors. More generally, East and Southeast Asia are critically important partners for U.S. semiconductor trade.