On base % last two years was .315 and .325, that’s not very good He does play defense well, but I would hate to see us go into the tax for a second season just to pick this guy up for three years, and at some point he would be playing because he is a vet over a guy like Matthews/Smith/Dezenzo getting a chance Arenado certainly doesn’t feel like a Dana Brown kind of move, feels like Jerry Crane is getting involved again Luckily Arenado doesn’t want to be here anyway
If Arenado rejects a trade to the Astros after they signed Christian Walker, it has nothing to do with concerns about the trajectory of the Astros’ future. The Astros with or without Arenado stand a way better chance of making the playoffs than the Cardinals.
If the Astros acquire Arenado, it means Cam Smith will be developed as the right fielder of the future, and Brice Matthews can battle Peña for shortstop when he’s ready or Peña can be traded for other things of need.
With Dana’s typical approach, a good year from them would have them up at some point this year. I know I’m in the minority, I just see a strong possibility of Arenado continuing to decline (almost every advanced stat says it’s happening) and we are having Abreu type discussions about 3B with better options on the bench. All while we are looking at draft/international money penalties cause he put us in the tax. The dude is strong defensively and defense is really underrated on boards like this. But the team needs a BAT added to the lineup more than anything and I see no evidence he is that guy
I think they know that, but it seems Brown is focusing defense in the diamond. Pitching imo is still a question mark, and they seem to be wanting to ensure they field the best defensive team out there. Yordan is going to play DH full time. Dubon is someone they plan to keep guys fresh.
Oh yea they will eat a lot of salary without a doubt But depending on which source you use, we have very little room left Personally I’d rather give guys like Dezenzo a shot rather than being in another declining veteran for 3 years, and use whatever salary we have left to spend on SP, which we are going to need at some point. We are scary thin in the rotation
The only real cost of going over the CBT in terms of something fans should care about is that it turns the draft pick they’ll get for Framber from a 2nd rounder to a 4th rounder. Pretty minor consequence. I don’t mind Jim Crane paying a few million extra to add a good player, especially because most of the dead money on the books can be traced back to when he approved a bunch of bad deals when he didn’t have a GM.
The CBT is just an excuse for owners to not spend. The CBT is 241m this year. Let's say you spend 281m. Then you get taxed 20% on the overage so 8m. If the CBT was $289m would you not spend to that figure then? Just pretend like the CBT is $350m and spend up to $325 and there you go, you're at $350m. The CBT should not be in any discussion or anywhere in the field of vision for any owner that is serious about trying to win. It should be completely irrelevant in the decision making process.
This isn't correct, I don't think: Competitive Balance Tax | Glossary | MLB.com The Astros would be in their 2nd year, so the base would be 30%. And it puts them in a position next year of needing to trim payroll or face an even bigger burden . In addition, there's the added surcharge on top of the 30%. and in your example, the Astros' first round pick moves down 10 spots. The reason fans should be concerned with the luxury tax is that owners are concerned with it, and if new signings cost 50-70% more than a non-luxury tax team would have to pay, the Astros would be a huge disadvantage in a competitive free market - non-tax teams can pay way more in salary for the same net cost than the Astros could in that scenario. For all the talk about how players should consider state income taxes when valuing free agent offers, the same applies to teams paying luxury taxes - it has to be accounted for in the total cost of a player. If the Tigers and Astros both valued Bregman at $30MM, the Tigers could actually offer him much more salary while shelling out the same of money as the Astros could. Thus, unless the Astros are willing to overpay - which they've shown they are not - they will almost never be able to offer equal salary to free agents as non-tax teams can.
I agree with your concerns about Arenado’s bat, but I think the Crawford Boxes would really help a pull hitter like him, and the Cardinals current organizational hitting philosophy leaves a lot to be desired. Look at how they have stagnated the development of numerous highly-rated prospect hitters in recent years like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson. It’s a risk, but I certainly understand the Astros’ interest when you consider the current state of their outfield.
The Astros and Cardinals will talk again. There would be a deal worked out if Arenado approved of a deal. The Astros and Cards have talked at least a half dozen times about Arenado. No promises but it’s there is still a real chance Arenado ends up in Houston with Cards eating money and Astros giving up an arm in minors.
Of all the low risk signings they could have made to add a bat, to trade for Arenado "hoping" he won't stay on his downward trajectory just seems foolish as hell. A lot of the arguments for why he will be good sound like the same ones we were making for Abreu after 2023. If he were a free agent I would have gladly been on board with a 1 year 5-10 million deal. He is still owed 64 million dollars, even if the Cardinals ate half of that it would still be way to rich for my blood. It feels like throwing money away for very little upside and a lot of downside. There's a real chance to me he won't even be a viable starter this season.
He was a 3 win player last year. He is worth way more than $5M/1yr. He probably isn’t a $30M/yr player going forward, but he has a MUCH better chance of being a good player than Abreu did when he pocketed $60M.
If we trade for him I hope you are right and we won't be paying 40 million dollars for 3rd base Jake Meyers.
His offense is still pretty good against RH pitching. Something we are sorely lacking. An infield of Arenado, Walker, Pena and Paredes will be one of the best defensively in the major leagues. With just one of our OF stepping up we would have a really good lineup. Altuve Yordan Paredes Walker Diaz Arenado McCormick Dicenzo Myers Pena That lineup along with our pitching would give us a very solid chance at the WS. Signing Arenado is well worth the risk.
