I dunno. I'd argue if we're comparing now vs right after the draft that his ceiling is just as high or maybe even higher. Post-draft we have summer league and him going down to the G League and dropping 49 in pretty spectacular fashion. Also some of the flashes he shows in games like the ridiculous stocks rate show what is possible with him. Some guys recover from really unproductive rookie years like Suggs. If he was playing 25-30 minutes a game in Washington and doing this I'd probably lower the ceiling a lot more but it's a tough situation to evaluate with him vs a normal top 3 pick since he's not in a position where he's going to get minutes to develop at the expense of the team winning games. The big difference to me is the floor is way lower than I thought. At absolute worst I though he could be an undersized combo guard who could hit ~36+% from 3 and be a 9th/10th man. If he's a 27% shooter from three permanently he's not going to be in the league for more than a few years.
He doesnt have ridiculous stock rate he has ridiculous deflection rate but since he has trex arms and short wingspan he usually doesnt get the steal or block. Tari Eason and Amen are the ones who have ridiculous stock rate, Sheppard is better than Jalen Green but is worse than those two so he has above average stock rate IMO. Scoring 49 in GLeague just shows gap between NBA and the rest of the league. It doesnt show Sheppard's ceiling since even Tyty Wash scored 53 pts in GLeague. Sheppard like Tyty before or Bronny now, he is too good for GLeague but not yet at NBA level. Rather than his floor I am more worried about Sheppard's ceiling. We all know he will shoot better than 27% eventually, but I dont know much he will improve.
This seems like a pretty good list to be a part of for stocks IMO. You think he’d just just need to be like #1 all time on his own to be impressed with it?
The odds of this are basically zero, that's a 0th percentile outcome for him. He certainly has not been as bad as scoot last year, or as suggs was, but he's still been bad. Generally guys who start this bad don't become stars, though it's not impossible.
Where are you getting this from? KD shot 28% from 3 as a rookie. Melo shot 26% in his second year. CP3 shot 28% as a rookie. Mike Bibby shot 20%. Maxey shot 30% as a rookie. Most players aren't stars but there are plenty of examples of really good players that didn't shoot well early in their careers. Reed is only half way through his rookie season.
U gonna bring up their FG% as well? Reed is shooting 31% from the field. There’s not shooting well from three, and there’s not shooting well from 3 while also shooting one of the worst percentages from the field you’re ever gonna see.
Reed isn't doing much besides shooting 3s. He's only taking 4 shots a game and 2.5 of those are from 3.
because that’s the only type of shot he can get off he’s 24-65 on 2 point attempts which is an appalling 37%, and he’s only taken 10 free throws on the season
Yeah, he's not an iso player right now and might not ever be but they also aren't running plays for him. The extent of his game right now on this team is taking 3s.
All we really have to judge Reed on right now is 3 point shooting. He's not ask to do much more. They don't run plays for him and he only takes 1 shot a game that isn't a 3.
He sure looks NBA ready in his first start. Shocking what can happen when a young player doesn't have a short leash and can get in a rhythm.
Credit to Reed Sheppard for playing well and against top 1 seed OKC. If he can keep this up I will admit I was wrong about him.
