Playing Alvarez in LF and Singleton at DH against RH makes a lot of sense. Singleton should never start against a LH pitcher again as an Astro. Walker is going to need rest days this year as well, so Singleton could start anywhere between 40-60 games this year and be a capable LH pinch hitter. That's a pretty valuable 13 position player to have.
The Singleton problem is that signs point to Yordan playing less in the field this season. He played 53 games last year in left, let's say he drops to 40ish. There's not a place for Singleton to play 40 other than a few games as Walker's backup and moving Yordan off DH into the field. Last season, Diaz and Caratini played a combined 60 non-catching starts at 1B/DH, so they'd really use up all of those backup 1B / non-Yordan DH starts. And 80% of those were Diaz, and I don't think we are hoping to reduce his ABs in favor of big Jon. And I understand we have lots of young guys we can cycle through the RH spots and one of them may produce. But every time someone fails at it, you've wasted 100 or so ABs on a guy who didn't produce. So if 3 of them underproduce, that's 50% of a bad starter for a season. Last year, Loperfido/Cabbage/Dezenzo/Whitcomb/Kessinger/Leon produced 336 largely unproductive ABs, adding to the 113 super shitty ABs by Abreu. An optimized approach would avoid a bunch of "ifs and buts". Hopefully guys establish themselves in the RH part of the OF early in the season, or it could be a long year.
Excellent points. Between Yordan being confined to DH (I actually think he will play <30 games in the field barring a series of injuries to OF) and Walker being expected to play 150+ games at 1B, I just don’t see a place for Singleton except as a good clubhouse presence and pinch hitter against RHP. That may very well be enough to justify him as a 13th man, but I think there are half a dozen other options that present more value. Houston desperately needs good pitching health and over performing young OF in the first 2 months of the season. I don’t think they can afford to get in the kind of hole they were in last season. I see 2 spots available for a player who can hit RHP and in order of who I think is in the mix: Gamel Dezenzo Guillorme Trammell Whitcomb Melton Rodgers (big gap) Hummel Singleton Salazar Leon Short Corona Bastidas Hamilton Sacco
Walker only played 130 games last year. If healthy, Walker is going to want to play all 162 games, in his 34 y.o. season. We will see. The value proposition for Singleton is that he is an average pinch hitter versus RHP, which might be enough value to land the 13th position. If Singleton gets 30-ish games as the backup 1B, that is just a bonus.
Yeah I said Yordan would be my LF in houston and Boston (maybe NY) against RHP with brown or Framber on the mound. Call it 40 starts for big Jon there. 15 or 20 as a backup 1B. Couple DH starts when Yordan rests. 15 DH starts when Yordan is on the shelf for a month (Altuve gets the rest). LHH PH for Jake or Chas or Pena late in the game against RH closers. That’s 250-300 AB’s. Thats reasonable for 13th player. you are right the biggest problem is if we waste 100 or 150 AB’s against RHP early in the season figuring it out, 2 or 3 times. I’m just not all that worried. I think Gamel and Dezenzo will be fine as long as they don’t face LHP.
I like the signing. Good depth and if Altuve is moving to LF on at least a semi-permanent basis, I'd feel great having Rodgers at 2B.
Time will tell - I think he has a lot left in the tank. He is a career 300 hitter against lefties with an OPS of like .850. Against righties he has an OPS of like .680. I have always been critical of Coors "creations", but Rodgers is one of the few guys to complain about it when he was still in Coors. Said that his swing had to be different in Coors than away because of the air and how it impacts pitchers. At 27, and able to have a more consistent approach - he may break out. He was pretty good in 2021 and 2022, before being injured in 2023.
We need to be careful assuming that Singleton is going to hit righties really well again - for his career he hasn't hit righties all that well, and actually has hit lefties better. Granted his at bats have been very spread out, but I am not entirely sure he is going to be a really good hitter against righties next season.
Why? I mean, to some degree, there's some truth to it - you'd like to roll out 8 everyday players. But I don't think there's any harm in pairing players who attack different pitchers to make, essentially, one highly-effective player. Chas, Dubon and Meyers all thrive against LHP and struggle with RHP. Selectively playing them against lefties - assuming you have a counter-punch v RHP (Heyward, Gamel) - is smart baseball, IMO.
The more I look, the more I see none of the top 6-10 candidates for the final 2 roster spots really stand out. They all have different plusses and minuses which will ultimately end up determining which ones are chosen, but none are head and shoulders above another. Gamel hits lefty and plays a position of need and has no options, but there is really no upside or hope of getting above average production. Singleton is the most dependable vs RHP which is a team weakness and has no options, but he is limited to a position where at least 4 other guys can play, and has no defensive or baserunning value. Rodgers brings all-star level talent and is only 28. He has never lived up to that talent but its possible Coors just messed him up. He is the only experienced guy in this group with everyday starter level upside. They may already have a handshake deal prompting him to choose Houston over other options. However, he would make the team even more RH heavy and would need to be added to the 40. Dezenzo has the upside the team should be looking at and has always hit RH pitching. But he has options, has very limited OF experience, is not a natural platoon match for any of the projected regulars, and is at a point in his career where he should be getting regular playing time. Guillorme would bring a LH bat and proven veteran infield and clubhouse presence. But has no upside left, would need to be added to the 40, and isn't a good hitter which counteracts any advantage of him hitting lefty. Leon has 30/30 tools and can play all 3 OF positions. He has done everything he needs to in AAA so no need to worry about continuing to play him everyday or developing him. But he strikes out a ton, has options, and doesn't help the RH/LH balance issue. Trammell hits LH and has fared ok vs RHP. He can play all 3 OF positions and has no options which improves his chances. He has been brutally bad (he wishes he was nearly as good as Meyers' is vs RHP) vs LHP and there is a legitimate chance he is a AAAA player. Whitcomb has the bat to stick and brings defensive versatility and some baserunning value. Unfortunately he isn't very good anywhere in the field, hits RH, and has options remaining. His strengths appear to coincide with areas the Astros have already covered so he's a poor fit. Those are the highlights, I don't have time to do the other fringe guys in camp, lol. It will be interesting to see where they go. My prediction is that Rodgers and Gamel make the team and play regularly at 2b and RF respectively.
The gold glove in 2022 says he was awesome that year. But every other year of his career, he's been average or worse. His defensive runs saved has been slightly negative the past two seasons. Just doesn't get to as many balls as he once did. Metrics show he's slow and has a weak arm, it's not just statistical noise. IDK if he got injured or what.
If Walker stays healthy and only plays 130 games, that's another problem for the Astros. I think we've been imagining writing the lineup in pen with Walker/Altuve/Yordan/Paredes/Diaz/Pena and in pencil at the 3 OF spots as we figure them out (and Pena really there for his defense). If our starters like Altuve and Walker need to sit out 20% of games due to age, I get it, but that's a lot of days where we are missing one of the engines of this top-heavy lineup. I'm fine with Jon as a PH but he's career .170 / .270 / .340 splits as a substitute. He's .180 / .243 / .281 in "late and close" situations. He's not exactly Jim Leyritz off the bench.
This seems the most likely direction that the Astros are heading. I would not be surprised, if Gamel makes the team as the RF starter, that Leon is moved for an opportunity elsewhere. Spending Leon back to AAA wastes both the Astros and Leon's time.
Sword laying down the sword today To: "I told Chasy the leash was long last year. It's going to be shorter this year." Another one that caught my attention.. "I had a conversation with Jake. He needs to put the ball in play. Make productive at bats. Defense matters and I don't want to take him out because of his at bats. But I will do it again." Damn homie. I like it.
Chas has responded to demotion twice with improved play. Last season he was finally given a chance as a no questions asked starter and he knew that all offseason. He responded by being by far the worst version of himself we've seen. There's not enough evidence to say something like this with confidence, but maybe he's a guy that needs to have some heat on him to perform.
I think Espada can maximize Jeremy Pena’s production by sticking him in the two hole between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Peña’s strength is hitting fastballs, and his big weakness is identifying and laying off sliders low and away. If you hit him sixth in front of one of the Astros outfielders, he’s going to see a steady diet of low-and-away sliders until he proves he will not swing at them because opposing pitchers feel they can attack the guys behind him. If Espada bats Peña between Altuve and Alvarez, he’s going to see more fastballs than he will batting lower in the lineup because opposing pitchers do not want to face Yordan with runners on base and nowhere to put him. My top six would be: Altuve Peña Alvarez Walker Diaz Paredes
Against lefties the 2 hole makes sense for Pena. Against righties I’d rather see him 9th (in front of Altuve).
