THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU JUST SAID. "Jalen doesn't help the team win all that much." Yet he is the ONLY player who has started each game, he LEADS the team in scoring, and they are 4th in the West. Yet, he doesn't help the team all that much? Make it make sense.
I'm not denying he doesn't have his flaws. But the amount of brushback that he gets, I think is overkill. He just turned 23! I was still going to clubs and hanging out at that age, just 5yrs out of high school....As most on this board was too! Is he Ant-man? No. Luka?, No! Or even Tre Young? No! But I think he has the ability to reach a higher plateau. I've said it before, I think if we give him and Amen time, maybe until next yr, we will have a special tandem. Jalen is a flat out score, who can score 40 pts any given night and he can rebound and playmake, that's not in Cam. Cam is a perfect 6th man, not Jalen. Cam can come off the bench and get 10 - 15 pts easily. Jalen has to have a feel for the game, that's why he tends to have great 3rd quarters.....ITS A DIFFERENCE
he is not a difference maker, if he were out the team would be just as good or better. He is just a guy, nothing more. DD
Jalen's "hot" pattern has completely changed this season. In the past, he always started out bad. Then he got much better after the AS break and peaked at March. Then he dipped again in April. (I don't have time to check with records. Just on top of my head from memory.) This season, he started red hot, which got all of us perked up. Then he dipped in December, only to get hot again in January. Now he's in a downward swing. I don't even know what to expect for the rest of the season. His individual defense seems to have improved quite a bit by eye test. But @Joe Joe showed that his team impact was quite negative. So who knows.
This? https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced?dir=D&sort=NET_RATING So if you really believe in the stat we should be benching the next two guys who suck right? Since it's being used as a teammate comparison stat. So there goes Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson the 2nd and 3rd worst, they're out. Then we should start the best guys Nate Williams, Jasean Tate and Cam Whitmore. Sengun Williams Tate Whitmore FVV That's what that stat would have us do if there's no context or eye test. You get the picture. That stat is not reliable. In general with stats that are disasters with ranking, by now it's pretty common not to use them in this way. It's a very well known problem. You can use this stat to track a players own improvement, but it's unreliable otherwise.
Look at the gap between jalen and dillon/amen, it's massive. I 100% believe that jalen and brooks are our 2 worst starters though.
I get it but I doubt others do. Basically, stats do not tell the whole story and if you RELY on stats they can be deceiving. Because we know that Williams, Tate and Cam do not produce or impact winning as much as Jalen....simple to some, difficult to others.
The rockets have 7 players who have played meaningful minutes this season, here are there on/off splits: FVV +5.8 Alpi +2.9 Tari +2.7 Jabari +1.9 Amen -0.8 Brooks -1.3 Jalen -11.8 The rockets are between +3.3 and +6.2 when each of those players are on the court, and only a +0.1 with jalen on the court. To be fair, there is a lot of noise/randomness to stuff like this in small samples (outside of the very top superstars) and even a full season isn't a very big sample, however the numbers for jalen are pretty brutal.
The problem isn't really the "season totals" ..... even at the .348,.332 & .338 he's averaged over the first 3 seasons he's averaged from 3 point range, you could deal with that if it was consistent - it isn't. It's the wild swing between good and bad on a game by game basis that's the real issue. This year he has 21 games shooting .250 or less from 3. He has 19 games shooting .400 or better. That averages out to a fairly decent 35%. Each year has been similar - The percentage of good vs bad shooting nights has been within 1.6% in each of his 4 seasons - he's been incredibly consistent at being inconsistent. The overall shooting numbers are very similar. In a league where the average FG percentage is ~46.5%, he's shot an incredibly consistent .422 average over 4 years - .426, .416, .423 & .425. Literally no variance. This year - 28 games .391 or lower from the field 13 games .400-.460 14 games .470 or higher. The first 3 seasons the percentage of good bad and indifferent were very similar. It's really tough to win when your highest volume shooter is at least below average in 74.5% of games and terrible in half of them. It's that other 25% that keeps us hanging onto hope ....
Mobley and Sengun would've been a great fit. You can find guards like Jalen anywhere, but a big that can protect the rim and switch on the perimeter is golden in today's nba
1 .000 2 .000 3 .000 4 .000 5 .000 6 .000 7 .111 8 .111 9 .125 10 .125 11 .125 12 .167 13 .167 14 .167 15 .167 16 .200 17 .200 18 .250 19 .250 20 .250 21 .250 22 .267 23 .273 24 .300 25 .300 26 .333 27 .333 28 .333 29 .333 30 .333 31 .357 32 .375 33 .375 34 .375 35 .385 36 .385 37 .400 38 .417 39 .429 40 .444 41 .455 42 .467 43 .500 44 .500 45 .500 46 .500 47 .500 48 .500 49 .538 50 .545 51 .600 52 .625 53 .667 54 .667 55 .833 See The Problem?
I admit, I do flipflop on Jalen. There is the potential that if you trade him, he makes that GM look like an idiot because IF he ever figures out how to shoot consistently, he will be a special player. That's why I haven't totally given up on him. In the mean time, he's consistently inconsistent, fantastic highs and disappointing lows .....
Dude maybe you're being facetious by you're literally now injecting your bias into the data. As you said, their on/off would disagree with you. Jalen is by far the worst number but Amen and Brooks are also dramatically worse than Nate Williams. We should absolutely not start them either if the data is true about Jalen. If the data is saying Jalen is that bad, then it's impossible to avoid it's saying we should bench those two. It's a silly conclusion to draw. For comparing teammates, which is how you're using it, the results all appear to be random. You could easily argue it's better to build a team with the 3 worst players ranked there over the 3 best. That's absurd. It's a mickey mouse stat. We can't use it selectively to promote an eye test.
Why are you bringing up nate Williams? He hasn’t played, super random. Look at the 7 guys who actually play this season, jalen has a nearly -12 on/off. That’s an INSANE number even if you’re in the math is fake club. Obviously stuff like shooting luck on offense/defense will impact those numbers, but by THAT much? I don’t think it’s possible that a player can have an on/off that horrific AND be a good/positive player.
Kudos to him but I think the West is just too tough to do a killing shooting wise unless your name is Curry not Cocaine. I do not even blame Reed Sheppard, he would have been good in the East and on a lesser team.
Honestly I think stats can tell you most of the story. I love advanced stats and metrics. I love applying context to them too. There's nothing wrong with this stat. You use it to track someone. If Jalen is -12 now, what was he before? Can he improve or not on his own performance? It's useful to track his own improvement. The only problem is astros was misusing it to rank and compare players which it's incapable of doing. I don't know if he's aware of the limitations either. If you have a hardworking defensive but low-efficiency offensive 3 quarters, play good defense and make the clutch shots to close the game in the 4th you will rank poorly in that stat but no coach will ever agree with that. I know from previous conversations @astrosrule treats clutch shots the same as shots in the first quarter, so you can see where the cracks form in its reliability. With stats we can't be wishy washy. We can't say it's fuzzy how often it applies. We can't say it applies 100%. We can't say all stats are equally context dependent - I don't need context to know plain PPG. The most important of all is: we can't assume a new stat is useful just because they put it on a fancy website. Otherwise everyone will simply be applying their bias to cherry picked stats. It's sad we literally have to entertain someone implying Jalen is the worst player on the roster and Amen is a distant 3rd worst on the roster.
Dude, you have to first establish if this stat can be used to rank players in your roster. It can't. I can't believe you're going in circles on this chief. This is a mickey mouse stat, you can't keep bringing your bias into it to legitimize it: - Ignore such and such players - This gap is valid the other is not - ignore that Jasean Tate and Cam Whitmore are two of our best players Once you've accepted the this means Green is x distance from the best player, you're legitimizing all the data. Context is not bias in case that's what you think you're doing with those exceptions. Context is not bias. They are totally distinct. Context is data that hasn't been quantified yet because the science is still in its infancy. Honestly I won't even entertain it, I made my points in my previous post and very confident to stick with those side by side with what you're saying here. Green is not the worst player on the team, Brooks and Amen are not the distant 2nd and 3rd worst players on the team. Brooks and Amen are not comparable.
