Devers may very well be " the man" in March and April, but he won't be by September. And we disagree on motivation. Obviously, neither of us know for sure, but I think Alex views this as a chance to establish his legacy and rekindle his HOF chances. I fully expect him to have several very good seasons in Boston.
... meaning Bregman will surpass him? I'm dubious. Devers is better right now - and has been since at least 2021. Younger, too, so regression is far less likely. We're already seeing Bregman regress - or, at least, succumb to more of those nagging injuries that persist as you get older. And Sox fans LOVE Devers. So unless Bregman somehow finds his 2019 self lying around... he's going to be the 4th wheel in Boston, I suspect... I don't know how much self-awareness Bregman has - but he is MILES away from the HoF. He certainly isn't "several good seasons away" - unless those several good seasons are equal to his '17-'19 run, which, I find unlikely. Even with team success, he is unlikely to be the best player on the team. Bregman may believe all these things - I obviously don't know and certainly don't think he'll rest on his laurels - but I think getting $40M AAV cements Bregman's legacy.
Bregman doesn't seem close to HoF for me. He's only been All-Star twice and that was more than 5 years ago.
Yep. The Astros kept the only 2 homegrown guys that are actually on a HoF track. Springer is in “was a good player” territory, Bregman, Correa, and Tucker are “Hall of Very Good” candidates. Yordan gets to 350 HR and Altuve gets to 3000 hits, they’re in.
Thank you. Posted a lot back in the day, fair bit of just logging in a reading for many of those years. To keep this on topic, what are realistic best and worst cases for Bregman? Both in terms of career stats and $$$? My prediction: He opts in, gets the $120M, and a 3 year $10-$15M per following that. Boston will be followed by a damp ending of a good career in Los Angeles, where his salary will be a rounding error. Ending up a bit better dollar-wise than in Houston, but not much. Career stats wise, no way does he reenter his prime. Slight increase across the board in everything except WAR both this year and next, then a fall off back to 2024 levels when he is playing for a contract in 2027. (Assuming the labor negotiations get kicked down the road a season or two). Hot take: The Astros return to the World Series before Bregman does.
None of the dudes that have left have won $hit, not Springer, Not Correa, Tucker is Harden of baseball so his chances are low, not Cole, not Verlander.... All them dudes seem to easily forget how magical that Astros run was based on how easily they left.... Luhnow and The Astros made all these dudes... Thanks for nothing, bye felicia....
Well sure, I just don't care about players once they chose to go.... He was going to get paid regardless....
I think this is right. I think Tuck has the talent but not the drive. Rest were very good but sub-HOF. Altuve has fallen off the pace for 3000, but it doesn't matter. He's a lock. Yordan will blow past 350, if he stays healthy. HOF is difficult to reach as a DH, but I think he can get to the Ortiz / Martinez / Baines level by the end of his career.
Yeah Altuve might not get to 3000 but he’s a pretty sure bet to get to 2700 if he doesn’t completely crater, and that’s probably the new threshold for HOF lock.
I agree. Bregman is not close. But he is young enough and has the talent to turn that around. He still has a chance. And in that park, he can do that. Right now, Alex projects to be better than Matt Chapman did this time last year. Alex is perfectly capable of having back to back 6 WAR seasons in that stadium. Then he has over 51 career WAR and a 7 year peak that matches Manny Machado and is much better than Paul Molitor going in to his age 33 season. He still has to do it, but I think he is perfectly capable.
Totally agree with this. Guys like Iso make me LOL. He loves Bregs, I do too, but you would think with Iso being a numbers guy, he would look at the numbers Bregs got paid and could see what the deal is. It's there in plain sight for all to see.
He had some setbacks with the shortened '20 covid season and the broken hand, but he is still on a good pace. I predict no major injuries for Jose and that he gets to 3,000 in July of 2029, the last year of his contract. I would LOVE to see one more 200 hit season. He had 185 last year, so not that far-fetched. If he duplicates last year in '25, he would only need to average 159 over the next 3 seasons to enter '29 with his sights set on getting there that summer.
