The scandal doesn’t mean he isn’t a lock. Fans of opposing teams may hate Altuve’s guts, but nearly every media member (those who vote on the Hall of Fame inductions) loves the guy and speaks highly of him. Also, he was considered the best player on a team that made seven straight appearances in the American League Championship Series and World Series, winning two World Series. In addition, he is second all-time with 27 home runs in the postseason, only trailing Manny Ramirez. Furthernore, comparing him to Dustin Pedroia is not a good comparison. Pedroia finished his career with 1,805 hits, 922 runs, 140 home runs, 725 rbis and 138 stolen bases. Pedroia’s career OPS is .805. Altuve has 2,232 hits, 1,156 runs, 229 home runs, 812 runs batted in and 315 stolen bases. His career OPS is .831. Comparing Altuve to Utley is better, but Altuve already has Utley beat in numerous statistical categories. Chase Utley had 1,885 career hits, 1,102 runs, 259 home runs, 1,025 runs batted in and 154 stolen bases. His career OPS is .823. Utley leads the group with 64.5 career WAR, and Altuve is already ahead of Pedroia with 52.8 compared to 51.9. Utley accomplished his WAR over 16 seasons. Altuve is entering year 15, and one year was a 60 game season.
There are several ways to look at their credentials. JAWS uses bWAR and has Pedoria a tick ahead of Altuve. Altuve is obviously not retiring and I think he a few seasons of productivity left so he'll sail past Pedoria real soon. I'm merely pushing back on the him being a lock *right now.* He needs a few more years. Beltran will be on his fourth ballot. He almost certainly sails in first ballot without the scandal, so - yeah, I think the scandal is having an impact. We don't know to what extent - but if you think Altuve is flying into Cooperstown without a contentious election.... And that gets back to being a lock *right now* - I'd argue his numbers have to not be borderline. He needs to be a no-doubter, statistically - enough to render the scandal (mostly) irrelevant.
All of which a % of voters will dismiss as being products of the scandal. I mean.... we've all been witness to the BBWAA using the HoF vote to retroactively police the steroid era, right? To dismiss it as a non-issue is wildly naïve, IMO. I'm not comparing him to Pedoria. By JAWS, Pedoria is a tick ahead of Altuve. Pedoria has two rings, an MVP (+ ROY); was the face of Boston's ~7-year run of dominance... Pedoria's also a more extreme reminder that middle infielders historically do not age well. Pedoria hit 30 on a HoF wave and essentially crashed. When these guys hit walls, man... the fall-off is sudden and quick. Altuve has remained very good into his early 30s - but if we agree he still needs a few more seasons... time might be running low. You're missing the point... you called Altuve a "lock", and here we are discussing two very similar candidates... and neither one is a lock. I'm not arguing Altuve isn't on pace; I'm arguing he isn't a lock. Not yet, IMO.
So we merging threads for this...? Why can't we have an ALEX BREGMAN AS A BOSTON RED SOX STAND-ALONE THREAD?
Carlos Beltran, the ring leader of the scandal, is going to be inducted next year on his fourth ballot. Therefore, I don’t see the scandal preventing Jose Altuve from getting in. Dustin Pedroia “hit a wall” because Manny Machado injured him on a dirty slide at second base and Pedroia’s knee was never the same. I understand your point. I just happen to disagree with you. You don’t think Jose Altuve would be elected to the Hall of Fame if he retired tomorrow. I do. When you combine his regular season stats, regular season accolades, postseason stats and team success, Altuve is getting in.
We shall see. That offer isn’t even remotely close to “much better” my man. Thats a “hope it works out ok” and I’m not pretzeling myself into any kind of logic over deferred money or taxes- they are both real things that exist. His PDV is 30M a year on those 3 years guaranteed. He will pay more in taxes up there. Those things are. It’s objective facts. he could have an mvp type year- opt out and come out way ahead. Or he could rip up his kneee, get dicky Thon’d or just continue to see Father Time erode his skills and get less than taking the Astros deal. saying this is clearly a much better deal is absurd.
I guess this is what all the "copium" type posts/references in here are citing? lol. The opt-outs after every year allow for a lot more flexibility that 100% favors the player. Nobody in here would ever want Crane to sign any player to that sort of deal. Nobody in here was predicting that he would get a better deal than what the Astros were offering. He's also now on a team projected to be in contention more-so than the Astros over the next 3 years... despite playing in a much tougher division... which honestly could be a singular reason (regardless of finances) as to why a competitive player who knows nothing other than being in the post-season would want to go.
There is no copium here man/ I didn’t particularly want him back, would have taken him under the right circumstances, and am fine with him moving on. Always said he had the right to do so. I am fully aware of the opt out details. You are ignoring deferred money. You are ignoring the taxes. There is a better than 50/50 chance that Bregman sees no more than a very negligible extra amount of net pay to him after his baseball career winds down than just taking the Astros deal and a decent chance that it’s significantly less money. Also- I’m happy to bet whatever you want that the Astros make it further in the playoffs the next 3 years than the Red Sox do. I’m not emotionally wrapped up in any way in this. I was with Correa and Springer. I’m telling you this: 1) Alex Bregman took a big risk on this deal 2) there is very little serious financial upside to this (though it exists) 3) there is decent amount of financial downside to him (I’d argue more likelihood of downside happening than upside) 4) he probably ends up net/net pretty close to the same when it’s all said and done 5) he gets to choose how to live his life and I hope he wants to be in Boston more than Houston because I doubt the money will make it make any sense at the end of the day.
I think BBS forums and podcasters are the only places where "state income tax" comes into the negotiations... they don't care (in addition to every houston player gets taxed on the non-texas earnings as is). On the one hand, people are complaining that "he can live on $26 million just fine!" (Astros offer).... and on the other hand, "big-time risk for him deferring money and he's 'only' going to get $30 million/year for the foreseeable future, and will have to wait on that other $30 that isn't inflation proof and subject to taxes...etc. etc. etc.". If the Astros made this sort of player-friendly offer to any of their previous FA's... they likely take it as well. Ideally (for him), he has a better year than last year and opts out. All bets are off after 2026 (in terms of work stoppages, new CBA with a likely floor/cap, etc.). And again... he gets to play on a team more expected to contend despite being in the tougher division.
I didn’t say anyone actually cared about taxes, I said it’s a real thing. He will play 99 tax free games as an Astro vs 18 I think as a redsox. Also, you can keep saying the Red Sox will be better contenders for the next 3 years but I will bet on the other side. He gets to play wherever he wants. He gets enough money either way where he’s absolutely fine. You are the one saying this deal is way better/ I’m saying that’s an absurd take. Maybe it ends up better for him. Maybe it doesn’t. We will see. It’s not a slam dunk or even particularly likely right now (that it’s a big difference financially).
The more I think on it, the more I am convinced that he wanted to go someplace to carve out his own legacy. I don't think it has anything to do with the cheating scandal. It has to do with Houston being a little brother in the pecking order of historical reference and national fans and media. It also has to do with being second fiddle on his team. He was always behind Altuve, Springer, and Correa then behind Altuve and Yordan. If he can be THE MAN and lead Boston to a W.S. title that is enormous for his legacy.
We already know your answer... but would you have been ok if Crane offered a player a similar deal with the opt outs after each year, etc.? I just don't see how anybody can fault Bregman (or any player) for taking this sort of deal... its extremely favorable.
Thats another coping mechanism strategy... Bregman won't be a legend in Boston's history.... even he knows that. He will always be a legend here. Could have been the 3B version of biggio/Bagwell... then again, the way those guys are treated around here now, not sure that's all that its cracked up to be, lol.
The math here still doesn't seem to add up: Alex Bregman's Huge Red Sox Contract Includes 'Significant' Deferrals Per the longtime MLB insider, a third of Bregman's deal is expected to be deferred— $40 million in deferred money. Which means, in the eyes of Boston's book-keeping operation, Bregman's deal is actually worth $90 million over three years. That would be quite the deferral for $40MM to turn into $10MM in current value.
It's not that deep. It was the best for him monetary wise and with a team that is somewhat in the playoffs hunt.
