It's not about promise, it's about probability. Cam johnson has a 100% chance to not take us to the next level. It's not 90%, it's 100%. That draft pick could be a bust, or could end up being 30th, or could end up not being used in a meaningful trade, but it's POSSIBLE that it does help.
So bird in the hand is worth 2 in bush analogy? I'm thinking Cam Johnson is the bird in the hand, the known commodity. The commodity that is actually needed on this Rockets team. But that's just me I guess. God only knows how much we need a core 15, or what that actually looks like.
I'm a math person so to me it's pretty simple. The best possible outcome with the pick is either 1. high draft pick or 2. used in a trade for a difference maker. The best possible outcome trading those level of picks for an ok starter is.......nothing. Literally nothing.
It's sweet but misses the point of our discussion. The promise is not about the unknown players but about our postseason opportunities. 2nd-3rd seed is not promised next season as the West has improved and will continue to improve while Rockets stand idle with Utopian daydreams of future probabilities.
Math works for me too. 41% 3P is not the equivalent of nothing. Not when the Rockets 3P% is bottom of the NBA. And trading the Rockets picks, not Suns or Nets, ensures a low first don't you agree?
The rockets may have to accept the Suns don't want to move Booker. So, they need to find a way to flip KD to a team that will value him and his timeline more than us and give us something we want back this offseason. Rockets get: Tyrese Maxey Sixers get: Kevin Durant Fred VanVleet (option picked up) Suns get: 2025 1st rd pick 2027 1st rd pick 2029 1st rd pick Paul George The rockets get a player that fits their timeline and addresses most of their needs. They also don't have to give up any other young assets. So, it gives the team more time to see who can step up and who may need to be moved. The Suns get ALL of their picks back but have to eat Paul George's contract. They can use the next year to rehab PG's value like CP3 in OKC and try to flip him mid season. Maybe even find a way to move assets for their 2026 swap rights back. The Sixers get a legit chance at a championship next year with KD who is still better than Maxey will ever be. They can use FVV as a connecter and locker room leader and extend him on a smaller deal. They also get out from under the PG contract.
Sixers say no. Morey might do it if he gets two of the picks and a late distant Rocket pick with the other going to Phoenix, but just because he’s Morey and the gatherer of the aged.
That logic wrt to PHX doesn’t make sense. At this point it’s pretty much guaranteed PHX will trade KD this summer and get under the second apron after trading Nurkic for expirings. PHX has two paths next - trade Booker for picks back and tank. or keep Booker without tanking and soft rebuild with whatever they get back for KD. Even us “giving them their picks back” only allows them to tank in 2026-27, not next year. They swapped their 2025-26 pick with three other teams and it’s irretrievably lost. So logically, a) if they keep Booker they won’t want their picks back from us, and b) even if they trade Booker the picks we can trade back aren’t that special for them. Ergo, trading our picks back to PHX probably won’t happen. We’ll likely use them in a trade elsewhere just as high value future lottery picks.
On b, the picks the Rockets can trade back to them are the only ones they can guarantee will be great picks with the exception of the '28 Phoenix pick Brooklyn has. I think the Suns should trade with Houston or some other team if Houston is just stubborn. I worry for the Rockets sake that the Suns wait until the 26 offseason to deal Booker. Mostly, I think Booker is great now and a good part of the value of trading for him is for the next 2 seasons for the Rockets. He'll still be valuable after that, but the Rockets won't have the benefit of Amen being on a rookie scale contract.
