I’m reading the offer as 4/120. It’s a significant, but not huge AV difference (maybe 15%) for 2 fewer years and a lot less total guaranteed. The annual opt-out is valuable for a player, so it mostly depends on what he thinks the market will look like next year. I’d say it’s a worse offer unless Bregman has a lot of confidence in what his market will look like next year. Don’t know how he feels about the two organizations relative to each other.
I just don’t see how opt-outs have much value for an aging position player with injury history. Does he really expect he’s going to dial up another 2019 season? The overwhelming likelihood is that he has an average or worse season for his career and re-enters free agency as the same player but another year older.
Bregman's choices: 1) Swallow some pride and return to Houston for the best combination of after-tax dollars and home for his family. Build a legacy in Houston. The embarrassment is more on the side of Boras, who turned down Houston's market-leading offer... tried to do better, and found out he couldn't. 2) Take less money and fewer years to go to Chicago. High taxes, high crime, very cold. 3) Go to Canada and pay taxes through the nose and have to *live in Canada*. Takes cold to a new level. 4) Try to survive Mogadishu style living conditions in Detroit, a team who won't spend money over time and will be a mediocre team once Skubal leaves after next season. Ride out your last contract in anonymity in a media-ignored environment. Very little impact on legacy. We will welcome you back home Breggy!
The bottom line is Boras never was going to advise Bregman to decide until all the options were on the table and maximized. That has not happened yet because Alonso is still unsigned and the Mets can and may make the biggest/best offer if Alonso signs elsewhere. It's even likely that Boras and Stearns/Cohen have talked about this very thing giving Alex's team reason to wait. It is quite possible that Houston's current offer is best and if Boras feels Crane won't raise it, then Breggy returns on the 6/$156M. It's also possible that one of the other deals, likely Detroit or Toronto, are better in Alex's eyes and he chooses one of them. But I don't think Alex signs before Pete unless he feels the current offer he likes best is in danger of bring pulled, and since it's still out there a week before ST there isn't much chance of that.
Factor in income tax and Houston's offer is pretty competitive with that. Not sure I'd uproot my life to go to one of those 2 cities (I've heard Toronto is nice, but another country has its challenges moving there) for negligible actual dollars.
I said I believe the deal is worse and the value to Bregman is based on how he thinks his market will look.
Nobody in the media wants to talk about the elephant in the room with the Tigers. Their best player and AL Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal, is a free agent after the 2026 season, and he has Scott Boras as his agent. They either have to extend him by next offseason or trade him. If they add Bregman at a $30M AAV with Javier Baez’s 24M AAV on the books through 2027, where does the money come to keep Skubal? If they have to trade Skubal, they are taking a major step backwards in the short term. Realistically, the Tigers have a two-year window with Skubal and likely just this season. Not only that, but Comerica Park is a severe pitchers park and doesn’t play well with Bregman’s skill set. If A.J. Hinch didn’t manage the Tigers, Bregman would have no interest in playing for Detroit. Finally, when you factor Detroit only plays 12 guaranteed games in income-tax free states (3 each in Houston, Arlington, Seattle and Tampa Bay) and Houston plays 96 (81 in Houston, 6 each in Arlington and Seattle and 3 in Tampa Bay), that’s roughly 3.5 to 4 million more in taxes over the life of the Detroit contract compared to Houston’s 156M over six years. Is 10-12 million over six years worth leaving the Astros to play in Detroit?
This is the part that just sticks in my craw if he goes somewhere else. It's just such a negligible financial benefit to him to sign somewhere else, arguably actually worse, that what it says is Bregs didn't want to be in Houston at all and was looking for any chance to get out. That would sting, if I'm being honest. I won't hate him for it or anything but I will be sad that all the good times apparently meant not a whole hell of a lot to him if he's willing to uproot his family and leave Houston over less than a cost of living raise by percentage.
The state income tax thing makes sense to folks like us, but more and more I feel like ballplayers don't care...they have tax advisors that I am sure manage all of their tax liability and mitigate it through donations and other deductions to where it likely doesn't make a difference at the end.
I mean, I don't really go anywhere other than this forum on this board, or occasionally the Rockets or Garm, but I liked this post b/c I thought it was funny and probably tongue in cheek. Maybe I read that wrong, but I don't think anyone really thinks Detroit is Mogadishu but I think most would agree it's not an American garden spot (he says- traveling 3 or 4 times a year to Detroit metro area on business a year) and not an upgrade in living conditions on Houston. The other stuff about the cold, taxes taking a bite out of any potential difference in contract size (Gross is not Net!) and other teams having less chance at winning it all is certainly true.
Nah- ballplayers get hard core ****ed b/c they are w2 employees earning a wage- there isn't any way to hide the income or write it off. Their checks are getting savaged in a way that a business owners doesn't b/c you don't get to write off questionable ****.
Unfortunately it will never die imo. The commissioner that just passed away made a comment about how 2017 was handled. Not to rehash it, but people already made their minds up and it’s not going to change. The only issue I have is the Astros will always be the face of the cheating scandal while other teams were doing it. MLB knew it, and it’s one of the main reasons Houston was in one aspect let off easy in some respect by keeping the title. The players union and the owners would have a **** show on their hands had the punishment gone further. There are too many players on other teams that said it was a league problem. I just wished Houston was able to win it all in 2019 and 2023. 2022 helped a lot, but man it would have killed these writers and fans about Houston being able to win outside of 2017. I just hope Altuve will get into the hall of fame on his first try. Altuve has taken the brunt of this more than anyone and he is still standing 10 feet tall. I have a lot of respect for him.
I’ve seen his posts in the political forum. Trust me when I say this poster is intentional and consistent. Just enough style points and quasi intellectual humor to give plausible deniability and gloss behind the real intent (four letters, all caps, starts with a M, ends with AGA).
It would sting to me too. But, I do get the idea of going somewhere else, starting fresh, experiencing something new. Most of us have faced choices like this, whether it is going farther away for college to experience different culture, weather or geography, or changing jobs for those and other reasons, like the current place is good and you have many good friends, but it has gotten stale and you want something new. Applying this line of thought to Bregs, he could sign here and retire a lifetime Astro and join the ranks of Altuve, bags and biggio. But even if he leaves, he is a houston icon, no less than Correa, springer and Verlander. We can split hairs among those four in this group, but they are all fairly revered (although springer probably a little less, unfairly so). So it’s up to him how much this difference makes. The fans in Houston are likely to be more forgiving if/when he declines and the contract starts to age poorly. But then again, the sting of Chicago fans booing him at that stage will hurt less because he is not truly one of their own. And Bregs is thick skinned anyway. If the cubs (or insert any team) fail to make postseason glory, well, it’s not exactly his fault. They weren’t there to begin with. But if they do, he is probably part of the story and helped them get there. Ultimately, I don’t blame him if he wants to try something new. It will sting, but it is what it is.
The income tax difference between Detroit and Houston would be near the bottom of my considerations if I were Bregman. Skubal being a free agent after next season, and Comerica Park not being a good park for me to hit in would be much bigger considerations.
Or he simply wants to be respected by his organization and in pro sports, respect is shown through money. If Detroit is offering him more, that shows that they place a higher value on him. There are very few players that look at taxes as their metric. If they did, non-tax states would be signing all the best players in the NBA given that the offers from all the teams are equal in dollar values. And yet, people still want to play in LA or NY or other places.
If I were Bregman ( and I am clearly not,lol) I would prioritize: Only consider offers that include commitments of at least 5 years and preferably longer. As a borderline HOF candidate who still needs a few very good seasons to have a chance, consider the home park and opportunities given by potential teammates. How does the family and work/life balance fit in. How does moving the family effect the choice? Chances of winning another ring or more and commitment to winning throughout length of contract. How do taxes and cost of living impact the value of the offer. To me, it still keeps coming back to Houston being the best fit.
