I trust the front office. If they end up passing on Polanco and run out one of the young guys, I’ll be excited to see how they do. If they sign Polanco, I will expect him to be good.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/dodgers-deferrals-a-misguided-focus.html Good article explaining why deferrals aren’t really a factor wrt the CBT.
Man I was so excited that we might have Alex back. But u are right. At this point it's getting kinda old. Dude either come back home or move on already. Those teams don't want u at that price. Why not come back were u are appreciated?
I just don't think he gets anywhere near that amount. I also don't see how a 31 year old with lower body injuries, and a long history of injuries, moving to the OF for the first time is a good idea? I do think he is a good candidate to rebound with the bat, when healthy. Seattle is an awful place for a hitter and just getting out of there would likely bring him back towards the mid to upper 700's in OPS where he was before going to Seattle. Is he even cleared for full participation yet?
Last report (from his surgeon) was that he would be full go for spring training. In his last 4 seasons, he’s posted 4.0, 1.7, 1.4, and 0.3 fwar, with wRC+ of 124, 118, 117, and 92. General trends point to declining defense and increasing strikeout rate. But even with varying/middling overall production, he’s been a very good hitter 3 of the last 4 seasons. Theres nothing in his statcast or batted ball data from last year that indicate a physical decline or deteriorating approach; he had a lower babip than normal so some of his bad 2024 appears to be bad luck. He’s projected as a league average hitter that will post 1-2 fwar playing 2B. Just based on his tools I think he’d be fine in LF (especially in Daikin) but I will leave that for the FO to determine. If you buy the notion that 1 fwar is worth ~$10M, based on what he’s done recently and what he’s projected to do, he’s worth $10M-$15M as a 2B. But he could be worth as little as $0M-$3M (if he repeats 2024 or declines) or as much as $40M (if he repeats his career season of 2021). I think $6M-$12M is a reasonable range for him. I’d definitely rather see Houston sign him for <$10M because of their financial constraints and internal alternatives, but at $8M he has quite a bit more upside than downside.
The DH/LF issue is something many of us pointed out when Altuve was extended. He simply isn't a viable 2b anymore and DH is spoken for. LF is the easiest, least impactful position in MLB. Houston's is the smallest, easiest LF in MLB to play. For this team to be at its best offensively, either Altuve or Yordan (or both) need to play significant games in LF so the other can DH. This is true regardless of who the other 11 players on the roster are.
Going into the offseason and assuming everyone outside of Javier and France would be healthy by opening day, Houston had organizational needs at 1B, 3B, LF, and in the farm system. It was estimated they had ~$10M-$20M to spend without going over the CBT. Here’s what’s happened so far: Out: RF Kyle Tucker, RP Ryan Pressly, IF Grae Kessinger In: IF Isaac Paredes, 1B Christian Walker, P Hayden Wesneski, OF Taylor Trammell, IF prospect Cam Smith, P prospect Juan Bello, RP Miguel Castro, RP Steven Okert, RP Blake Weiman, P Tyler Ivey, C Joe Hudson, IF Zack Short They also added an international signing class headlined by OF Kevin Alvarez. The moves they’ve made have actually been close to a net zero in terms of money. But just getting a little more information it looks like they’re probably closer to $10M under than $20M. They filled holes at 3B and 1B, and added 1 good prospect on the farm along with 2 2nd/3rd tier prospects. But they opened up a big hole in RF and weakened their bullpen. It’s also come out that Garcia and McCullers will start the season on the injured list. So the current sit rep: Needs: RF LF (depending on opinions of Trammell and other internal options) RP (depending on opinions of internal options) 1-2 MLB Top 75 prospects (depending on opinions of the farm system) SP (depending on opinions of internal options and expectations for when Garcia/Javier/McCullers will return) An “A+” offseason would very likely have meant trading Framber for a monster prospect haul while making home run free agent signings to backfill Tucker, Valdez, and Pressly and having Garcia and McCullers healthy by opening day. That’s not really in the cards at this point. But simply adding an OF who fits solidly into the everyday lineup would get this offseason to a solid “B”. Doing that AND getting Bregman back long term on a contract <$170M would get it to a “B+”, and doing those things along with getting a bargain pitcher or two would warrant an “A”. It’s looking likely that Houston will enter the season with an extremely deep lineup (it’s completness hinged on the emergence of a young player like Dezenzo or Trammell or Melton), an improved farm system (just how improved to be seen over the first half of the minor league season and subsequent draft and trade deadline), and a good but shallow pitching staff (with massive upside if injured guys get healthy or young arms quickly reach their ceiling, but massive downside if one for their 2 ToR or 2 elite RP guys gets hurt).
Yeah, what this article isn’t taking into account are the signing bonuses that are often given in these contracts with deferrals. Let’s take a look at Blake Snell’s deal. He got $182M for 5 years. $36.4M AAV if you just take the average with no PV calculation. Because he got $66M deferred, his CBT hit is $31.7M, a difference of nearly $5M annually from the average. This article is making the argument that the value to Snell is actually $31.7M so that’s fair…but what about the $52M signing bonus he receives right away? The value of getting that all up front pretty much offsets the deferred money. Yet, that’s not factored into the CBT figure. $5M is a pretty big difference for just one player.
My point had nothing to do with bonuses, just all the misplaced whining fans are doing about deferrals. But yes it does seem like signing bonuses should be effectively the reverse of deferrals (and thus have an increasing impact on CBT calculations just as deferrals have a decreasing impact). $5M is not a really a meaningful difference; I’m sure if big market teams were regularly giving out huge %s of big money contracts as signing bonuses, that would (and should) get a lot more attention, as it would legit be a wrongful manipulation of the system that affects competitive balance, which deferred money is not.
If just McCormick returns to 2023 form, we are 8 deep with the weak link a defensive specialist in CF. Well I may be including Alex.
Yeah, you’re not wrong. Even if they just took the actual PV of the cash flows throughout the contract or just took the average AAV with no calculation…it’s not going to stop the Dodgers from spending. They don’t care about the CBT like nearly all the other teams. Blake Snell was going to be a Dodgers regardless of the rules. And the significant tax benefit to the players taking these type deals is the real reason they’re happening with the players going to LA. In Snell’s case, he lives in Washington with no state tax so his signing bonus and deferred money all dodge state taxes. That’s a huge difference for him.
Seems like a high price to pay for someone with ok stats, coming off a bad season and shoulder surgery. But sure
Rays are probably betting on him regaining his 2023 form where he was a Gold Glover and led the Padres in WAR. Big gamble coming off that specific injury though.
I really would have loved to have him, but not nearly at that price. Hopefully he'll be healthy and productive for TB. Feel for their hundreds of fans.
