Hummel, Trammell, Hamilton, and Barber are almost certainly bench/AAAA players. Gomez is still in the lower minors. He has a high ceiling but his numbers so far do not project him as an everyday player. That could change quickly. Cole is one of the 2-3 best athletes in the system and has an immense ceiling, but his numbers so far paint him as a frustrating AAAA player. That also could change quickly. Melton is the only player on that list that projects as a surefire big league contributor and even he might just be a platoon guy, although he has a decent chance of being an everyday player and a non-zero chance of being a real star.
Melton would be the perfect fit for this team on Opening Day, if just platooning, but I think they'll keep him in the minors for a bit for both the extra year of control and to work on improving against LHP. Really hoping he has a strong spring.
My conspiracy theory is that Hummel and Trammell will be competing in spring training to be the strong side of a platoon in the OF to start the year, as a placeholder for Melton and/or Dezenzo. I strongly suspect that at least one of Melton or Dezenzo will be up in an everyday role by June 1st.
As we get <70 days from minor league rosters being set, I am really liking how the AAA roster is shaping up. I think the Astros AAA lineup will feature 6-7 very high ceiling players, all of whom should have the positional versatility to be able to help the big league team in some way if they perform offensively: Dezenzo: 3B, 1B, LF, RF Leon: CF, RF, LF, 2B Matthews: SS, 3B, 2B, CF Whitcomb: 3B, 1B, LF, RF, 2B Melton: CF, RF, LF Corona: CF, RF, LF All 6 of those guys have 3+ war ceiling and can play at least 3 positions. Lesser players like Salazar (C, 1B, 2B), Hamilton (LF, RF, CF), and Sacco/Bastidas/Short (SS, 3B, 2B) all offer defensive versatility as well, albeit with lower ceilings/floors. Catchers Joe Hudson and Miguel Palma are the only position players projected to that roster that don’t play at least 3 positions, and each of them can play 1B in addition to C.
Gomez has 86 total PAs at high A. I woukd not say he's in the upper minors But I do have hope for him. Just not until 2027 at the earliest. And since he hasn't even graduated A+ ball yet, he is far from a sure thing.
I looked at the wrong rosters. My current rosters and my projected post Spring training rosters are both in the same file as they are both works in progress. A mistake but I do think he comes in to the 25 season in AA due to some thinning of the current upper level OF prospects.
If left handedness is a highly important consideration to the team (it's not) Cole makes the team as the left fielder. He is a real possibility in my opinion but not the only one. Hummel has the advantage of positional versatility to get a bench bat spot making him worth watching. These are not our best OF prospects, they are left handed prospects. I have seen the Astros ignore handedness year after year, it should not surprise anyone that they would do it again this year.
Stumbled across this video from Ethan Wagner, Houston’s sole HS draftee from the 2024 draft: Kid seems jacked. He’ll be one to watch when FCL games kick off this summer.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-100-prospects-by-club-2025#alwest Smith (#59) was the only Astro on the mlb.com top 100. A’s had 2, Angels 2, Rangers 3, and Mariners a whopping 7.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bello-002jua https://www.milb.com/player/juan-bello-805694
Juan Bello is a 20-year-old (21 on April 6) righthander from Colombia. In 22 starts with Class A Myrtle Beach last year (89.2 IP) he went 4-5 with a 3.21 ERA. Bello allowed 32 runs on 73 hits (5 HR), walked 28, and struck out 91. Fayetteville faced him twice last season and they didn't do much. In 8.2 innings, Bello allowed a run, a hit, walked 4, and struck out 11.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/...an-impact-including-kyle-tucker-trade-return/ With all that out of the way, let's get to ranking the top three prospects in the Houston Astros system. 1. Cam Smith, 3B The short hook: Promising corner bat, but which corner? Smith ascended from a so-so first season at Florida State to being made the 14th pick in the draft thanks to a tweaked swing that allowed him to greatly reduce his strikeout rate. He's now capable of contributing in each of the triple-slash categories, with his above-average strength in particular giving him middle-of-the-order potential. (To wit, none of his seven professional home runs were total pull jobs; they were all hit to left-center, center, or right field.) Questions remain about his long-term defensive home. Evaluators have expressed the belief he could slide from third base to a different corner in due time. The Astros, who obtained Smith in the Kyle Tucker trade, have stated they intend to crosstrain him at each corner position as a means of improving his and their optionality alike. MLB ETA: Summer 2025 2. Jacob Melton, CF The short hook: Dynamic center fielder with power Melton is an athletic center fielder with an intriguing left-handed bat. His exit velocity last season peaked at 113.6 mph, putting him in the same neighborhood as Bryce Harper and Matt Olson, among other notable big-league sluggers. Melton certainly has the strength to leave the park to all fields (seven of his 15 home runs went out to left or left-center field), but in the near term his power might play more in the form of doubles; that's because he had an average launch angle in the single digits in Triple-A, along with a ground-ball percentage over 50%. Melton's offensive capacity could be hampered by a swing-happy approach that contains plenty of swing-and-miss, too. On the bright side, he should be able to claw back value on the basepaths, where he successfully swiped 30 bases during the 2024 season. There are some intriguing potential outcomes here if Melton can further optimize his swing plane and gameplan. MLB ETA: Summer 2025 3. Brice Matthews, SS/3B The short hook: Dynamic infielder with power Matthews had an interesting season, jetting all the way to Triple-A just about a year after being selected 28th overall. He notched 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases across 79 games, all the while striking out in more than 31% of his trips to the plate. The industry is more forgiving of strikeouts now than at any other point in history, but Matthews will test that tolerance; only one qualified MLB batter, Zack Gelof, struck out more frequently. At the same time, Matthews would appear to have one major point working in his favor: his employer. His ability to pull fly balls to left field should come in handy in Houston, where he could become fond of the Crawford Boxes. Of course, Matthews will still have to make enough contact for that possibility to materialize. For now, he's someone to keep tabs on. MLB ETA: Summer 2025
I wouldn’t classify him as a lottery ticket. He’s not a top prospect but he’s a legit prospect who will probably slot in the 20-25 range on Houston’s org list. Pressly’s contract was slightly underwater, and he required some add’l money to make up the tax difference in order for him to approve the trade. So if Pressly is worth ~$11M, and he’s making ~$16M, Houston paying $5.5M barely gets him back in the black, so $500k is a good value for Bello.
I thought Pressly was making $14M. I also not grok if the Astros are now under the CBT after the trade how they will stay under the CBT after they sign Bregman ... even if they trade Caratini.
