I think Amen's ceiling is higher than Jalen's simply because he has all of JG's athleticism (maybe even more) but pairs it with truly elite defense and he's taller, stronger, and has longer arms. Jalen is closer to his offensive ceiling and perhaps more likely to reach it if he continues trending in the right direction, but if Amen's ballhandling and shooting were to develop into their top 10% outcomes I think he would be even more dangerous than JG on offense.
Consistency is the part of Jalen's game that deserves the most criticism. He'll still have peaks and valleys for a while, we just hope his future valleys aren't as low and become shorter in duration.
Overreacting to a Jalen hot streak is as silly as overreacting to Reed's stats as a rookie on a team on pace for 55 wins. I'm not going to overreact to Reed emptying the clip and scoring 49 pts in the G League either. If Reed was allowed to shoot to his heart's content on a 20 win team I'm sure his percentages and stats would look much better. Both players have a lot more to prove. I'm just way more confident in one than the other. Let's hope we're both right (you about Jalen and me about Reed....not the other way around).
There's no realistic outcome where Amen's ceiling will include him being a #1 option superstar level offensive player.... We've seen that level from Jalen... It's just a matter of growth/progression and consistency... I truly think for Jalen it's always been a matter of focus and mindset... his areas of necessary continued improvement have largely been mental. Amen is stronger and faster than Jalen unquestionably.... Especially in transition or off ball... Jalen with the ball though is faster in the halfcourt because of his superior ballhandling.... I don't see any ceiling where Amen is a #1 scoring option... Which is a key component for the highest ceilings of any potential superstar... As far as outcomes it's a virtual lock that Amen's handle and shooting will never be as good as Jalen's currently... And I think Jalen in his prime has a strong potential to be a high volume... 37+% 3pt shooter.
Can't really disagree with that, it's all so hypothetical though. For all the excitement over this crazy 5 game stretch (and ya he had other good games before, but also bad ones mixed in) his efficiency is still not very good and his assists are at a career low (yes i know numbers aren't real and all that). I think you're talking about a 99.9999th percentile outcome and if you are gonna go to that extreme, you have to account for the possibility of amen following a kawhi style shooting improvement as well, and in that case jalen wouldn't be able to touch him.
Stretch that last 5 to over the last 20 games... Jalen is playing at an all-star level... Since the New Year it's been superstar level... projecting based on what he have seen and is a reasonable possibility... The likelihood of Jalen doing something that he's at least actually shown capable of doing just at a much more consistent rate is massively more likely and significantly less EXTREME than Amen doing something he's never shown any proficiency at much less literally gaining a new shooting stroke and becoming an elite 3 level scorer like Kawhi lol there's no way these two scenarios are on the same wavelength of possible outcomes.
Jalen's handle was not as good as it is now when he entered the league--it's one area where there's been noticeable improvement in the eye test even though it hasn't shown up much in the results yet. Conversely, I could argue to you that Amen has already shown himself to be much better than JG at the most important scoring skill in the NBA, which is still rim pressure. Not only is he bigger and stronger as mentioned, he also has better touch around the basket and better ability to change pace when he gets close to the rim. Jalen will probably never come close to Amen's 2P% in their respective careers. In any case, I think you're a little too optimistic about Jalen--I think his lower rim pressure and lack of elite shooting ability will put a cap on his ceiling at somewhere around that top 10-15 players level, he'll probably never be a true superstar--and a little too pessimistic about Amen's ability to develop his skills. But agree to disagree I guess.
We'll see, he also had that insane 8 game stretch last season, hopefully this one sticks though. The nice thing is his floor is higher since he's a good defender now. Those crazy stretches usually involve 45-50% 3 pt shooting though, idk how realistic that is since nobody has ever done it in nba history.
Jalen had a "guard level" handle to begin with in his rookie season... The improvements are marginal and generally that it's gotten tighter. Amen doesn't have a "guard level" handle and likely never will... It's mediocre, high, and loose... And he often has issues maintaining it when he's pressured or has to change directions in the half court... I've said it many times and I'll say it again... Drastic improvements in "handle" basically never happen... Just marginal improvements at best like "tightness" or in regards to ball security... but we're talking a whole other story when it comes to off the dribble creation, crossovers, hesi, tween, pullback, bagwork, etc. Jalen is 72% percent at the rim right now which is elite... And with far more unassisted buckets/drives than Amen... Yes Amen is stronger and a more efficient finisher especially in transition, but as I said the other day... this is why you don't just look at stats like 2P%, but you apply context to them... Amen is a role player/beneficiary on offense... He scores in transition on drives and largely AWAY from the primary actions in the halfcourt... transition drives, open catch and shoot, getting a feed to the dunker spot, a pass on a cut to the hoop, or crashing the glass from the weak side and getting a put back... Defenses are literally geared away from him and he's not the primary, secondary, and even tertiary focus of the D many nights... Defenders also sag off of him on the perimeter routinely... He's in a role on this team where he excels and best maximizes his strengths/efficiency. This doesn't mean he's incapable of creating his own offense or never has... He has, but rarely and it's not where he excels.... Jalen has been the primary focus of the defense many nights and in comparison to Amen it's not close... And that's not counting the shooting which will likely never be close. He always turns up post ASB... Every single season... This time it's much earlier which is a good sign if that trend were also to continue.... He doesn't have to maintain this "since new years" stretch of averages in regards to his efficiency... Cuz yeah that would be insane historic averages for a season... If his efficiency can reach just what it's been the last 20 games(38% from 3), then that's a significant jump to potential superstar level.
The funny thing is... Pace in November: 101.4, No. 7 in NBA Pace in December: 98.0, No. 27 in NBA Pace in January: 97.0, No. 25 in NBA
That was just so so well put, I usually just like to lurk but you made go figure out my log in and reset password just so could give you some props. Feel like Jalen is so polarizing and i understand why, but the things that Jalen can do that no one else can do on this team often gets overlooked, the type of pressure he puts on defenses, the way they react to the threat he poses and what that opens up. Especially when Jalen is seeing and understanding what the defense is doing in front of him and then making good decisions, which has been happening much more consistently. But by the same token, Amen does things no one else on this team can do either. All the comparing and pitting of one of our players against another gets so ****ing tiring sometimes. I think Amen and Jalen work REALLY well together, on so many overlapping fronts. I've been the biggest Sengun fan since the beginning- and while his offense has been a bit down, I think he's made massive improvements on the others side of the ball. But I'm starting to envision a rockets team where he doesn't have to be the central hub all the time. I really think we are growing a complete team that is really going to devlop the ability to attack defenses in so many ways: get out in transition with the fast and athletic group, play through sengun when we need to slow it down in the half court, ability to attack the glass and get put backs, I just really see how this all could work.
I think people sometimes put too much stock in just looking at stats/efficiency without factoring in the context of how players are utilized on the court and the impact... Jalen is our best off the dribble shot creator and has tremendous superstar potential if he can maintain consistency... no one else on the roster comes close in that regard.... I've always said his issue to me is focus and mindset... We're seeing improvements in not just that he's making more shots, but yes that his process is getting better.... Subtle things where he's not just predetermining every action... like in that game when he got in the paint and instead of just trying to throw something with the defense in front of him at the rim... He gets in the lane on two feet, hesitates, and steps through for the finish past Edey... Or the play late in the game where he gives us the lead... He's out on the perimeter and JJJ comes to trap/double him and get the ball out of his hands... Instead of just accepting the double (which he could) and making the pass... He's in rhythm and has it going... He sees it coming and blows right around the double and goes right to the lane and finishes through contact. Amen is a defensive MENACE... And his greatest value that doesn't show up in the stats is how he can turn defense into offense in a blink... His defensive playmaking is special... Getting stops, grabbing the board, and pushing it in transition... Tari is really good at this too, but Amen is definitely the best on the squad in that regard. Sengun is still our most consistent overall player and I hope he's able to find his touch around the rim again that he had last season... It's been tremendously inconsistent this year.. and the FTs are alarming at times, but still he's our most reliable halfcourt initiator... Unlocking all 3 of those guys who are still 22 and younger is absolutely in play and we're in many ways ahead of schedule. Thanks and absolutely I agree... Many can't envision it now and the media definitely is behind on it, but there's a realistic outcome where they're a future "big 3" in this league... All homegrown drafted and developed stars... Ala the Warriors of the last decade.
Something has definitely shifted in him. He asking/demanding for the ball and playing with confidence now.
