That's exactly what you see in NCAA football/basketball and it's awful, I think. Great for bank accounts, but terrible for fans, coaches, even players in terms of building legacies, etc.
This is what Charlie Finley suggested when the courts made FA happen. Every player on a one year deal from year to year.
Just let Bregs go. Appreciate his time here. He's going to decline really bad (especially if he doesn't play d like he is)
Alex is not a physical freak. He, obviously has incredible hand-eye coordination and very good quickness, but he was not gifted great power or speed. What makes Alex good is his baseball I.Q., work ethic, and batting eye. He knows what pitchers are trying/likely to do when he is hitting and recognizes pitches quickly/early. He has a plan and executes instead of simply hacking when he sees a pitch close to the zone. If a pitch isn't where he needs it to be to accomplish his plan, he doesn't swing even if it's a strike - even if he hits that pitch the result likely won't be what he wants. On defense all these skills allow him to make the right decision instantly without needing to even think and process. His countless reps practicing physically and mentally tune his reflexes and muscles allowing him to perform nearly every play correctly and successfully. These are all things that should age well and sliw his regression in relation to the average player. I do not expect him to ever be a 6 WAR player again, and don't expect him to maintain his 4 WAR seasons into his mid-30s, but I fully expect him to be 2 WAR player pretty much as long as he wants to be.
This mostly makes sense except the dropoff can be dramatic when a guy with middling power loses a little bat speed or a guy with middling speed loses half a step. Bregman has also battled injuries in the past and that will get worse with age. I do think it’s possible that Bregman stays an above average player into his mid 30s but it wouldn’t surprise me if he falls off pretty quickly.
Power is one of those tools that ages the best, generally into the mid 30s. Unlike speed, which seems to peak a decade sooner and falls off for everyone over time. Every player in their mid-30s is a risk for regression. Nobody is a sure bet. But the tools Bregman brings, batting eye, smarts, those are the skills that tend to fall off least, or even improve, with age. He's got the right skillset to be one of the guys whose game ages well. And frankly, I enjoyed his bat-to-ball ability contrasted to a team of free swingers. When 150+ strikeout guys start populating our lineup like Leon or Bautista or Cabbage, I'll remember wistfully the seasons when Bregman walked more than he struck out.
I think Dustin Pedroia was a similar player to Bregman, with defense, plate discipline, and smarts as the hallmarks of his game (Bregman has more power but Pedroia struck out less). Pedroia’s age 32 season was his last as a productive major leaguer.
Yeah, because Pedroia's knee was ruined the next season. The knee got hurt by a late slide from Machado trying to break up a double play, and he ended up needing six surgeries. He didn't fall off at 33, he suffered a career-ending injury. If your point is that Bregman could suffer the same fate, sure. Anyone could. But it's incorrect to say that Pedroia fell off due to age. He didn't.
I love Bregs, but you wont remember last season if you like more walks than strikeouts. Also Bregs numbers have declined the last 3 sesons. I expect tis trend to continue. This is why I'm not surprised Crane moved on after he made his offer to Bregs.
...seems like by the eye test, OF defense falls off far more dramatically than IF defense likely to need for speed... Beltran, Andruw Jones didn't age well defensively while Yuli got his Gold Glove in his mid 30s.
Yeah, it's a slow decline though. He's one of the more consistent players in MLB in terms of delivering 4+ WAR every season. The slow start cost him last year in overall #s but he was excellent mid-May onward. He's not a Hall of Famer but he's going to put up good numbers for someone for the next 5+ seasons, barring catastrophic injury. I never felt like he was giving anything less than 100% during his time here. I'll remember the consistent approach and the gold glove defense. For what it's worth, Paredes also draws walks and doesn't strike out much. He maximizes his limited gifts. There's some carryover in the hitting approach, and the defensive drop off hopefully won't be too crazy.
Really what this comes down to is do you want to pay a guy who's declined the last 3 years, is 30 years old for 6 or 7 years and how much more decline will there be in his game. Signing Bregs to 6 or 7 years is a bad bet. 3-4 years is as long as I would go.
Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $120M Matchmaker Verdict: Boston Red Sox If the Mets do indeed re-sign Pete Alonso, that would seem to take them out of the running for Alex Bregman. They presumably still want to add a corner infielder, but only one. Mark Vientos can handle the other spot, ideally for years to come. Removing the Mets from the equation leaves Boston and Detroit as the only particularly logical landing spots, with Nolan Arenado's presence on the trade block a gigantic variable in that race. The scuttlebutt from The Athletic's Katie Woo from a week ago was that it's looking like 'Red Sox or bust' for Arenado to get traded this offseason, but with 'bust' being a real possibility, as it doesn't sound like they're particularly close to an agreeable deal. Amid the Arenado and Bregman rumors, there have been conflicting reports on whether Rafael Devers is willing to give up his spot at the hot corner. What about Bregman at second base, though? USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported back at the beginning of the offseason that Bregman would be "amenable" to a shift to second. And if Boston could make that happen, goodness gracious, what a lineup that would be, with center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela likely slated for the 9-hole after a season with 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases. For what it's worth, Bregman sure has loved that Green Monster over the course of his career. In 21 games played at Fenway Park, he has triple-slashed .375/.490/.750 with seven home runs and a total of 16 extra-base hits. Adding another bat would further block the path to regular big league ABs for top prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, but what a nice dilemma that would be, to have too many quality options. As far as finances are concerned, the Red Sox could afford to sign multiple Bregmans. Their current estimated payroll is $168M, but with the revenue they pull in on an annual basis, they could/should be one of the teams flirting with a $300M budget. As a result, they're likely to outbid Detroit. Spotrac's projection that Bregman would get a four-year, $120 million contract, which is less than he's reportedly been seeking, but might be as high as any team is willing to pay him at this point in the offseason.
so is Boras and Bregman just waiting for a team to change their mind? I would think Bregman and Alonso are probably both waiting for the other to get signed first but they have the same agent lol.
Depends - centerfield defense? I think you have a point, although there were some still really good up to 35. Corner outfield defense? Nah - there were guys pushing 40 that were still good. There are a lot of players that cannot play SS past 30 or so. Catchers also tend to lose it around early 30's. There are exceptions but high use guys a lot of times get beat up back there.
There aren't a lot of guys pushing 40. I'd guess most quality aging corner OFs were playing CF early in their career and shifted to a corner as their speed decreased, though there are special players that never see a sharp decline in speed. As to the premise, I think IF defense is harder as a player ages. Yuli was at 1B, which is very different from the rest of the IF. I'd attribute a lot of it to simply bulking up costing some agility/speed in the field.
