Arbitration filing deadline is today. Wouldn’t shock me to see Paredes extended. Abreu is the only other realistic extension candidate but I’d be surprised to see him bite. I’d be shocked to see Framber, Dubon, McCormick, Pena, or Meyers extended.
I think it’s one of two things: either the FO knows he’s permanently injured and is just playing it out given his contract (and will just continue to post vague updates until he’s on the 60 day IL again), or even they are so beaten down by the last two years that they’re hedging their expectations. My guess is either McCullers pitches in the majors in April or his career is over.
This is pretty cool. I’m friends with his dad Big Mike who pitched in the minors in the late 80’s and early 90’s. Really nice guy. Hope his son figures it out with the Houston.
Caratini should want to be traded to a team that can offer him more playing time, he was very good last season for the Astros, but with us finally having a real 1B, Caratini's PT is going to even less than in 2024. Salazar is more than capable of providing that 20-30 games at league average salary than paying $6M to Caratini to sit on the bench for 130 games, though he did play LF/RF for 1 whole inning in 2017.
The, not so, short answer is that. 1) Caratini significantly outperformed his projections last year. He is a veteran, so that most likely is an outlier season and the Astros and their fans will be very disappointed this year if he remains on the team. 2) With 1b and DH taken by everyday players, back up catcher simply becomes a much less important spot that requires less financial investment to fill it. 3) Sure Crane CAN pay the tax, but WILL he? So far what he has shown is "No" and even the comments by various individuals in the organization reflect this. 4) Caratini is one of the few players on this roster who actually have trade value and it will require a trade to add to the outfield, because of the current payroll and Crane's priorities. 5) Salazar is a much better fit for this team. He makes the minimum, has skills/tools that translate to a guy who will be a 10 year backup MLB catcher, and this team needs Diaz to play as much as possible and catch as much as possible to continue getting better. There is no question that Caratini is one of the 13 best players on this roster. There is also no question that he is currently better than Salazar. It is also very very clear that Salazar is a much better fit for the 2025 Astros.
The only thing I would add to this is that Paredes was a TB Ray. We all know, beyond a shadow of a doubt that TB tried to extend him. I'm mot sure how likely it is. Maybe he didn't want to be in the Rays organization? Maybe he was worried he would sign and then get traded anyway? Maybe the Crawford boxes are important to his decision? Maybe having terrible results in Wrigley and/or the NL impact him wanting security?
Until this team adds in the OF, I am going to worry. I see some potential to hit RHP from Trammell, Dezenzo, Hummel, etc but I have no confidence that they will actually be put in the lineup.
One interesting note is that both Pena (3.000) and McCormick (4.000) sit on an exact even number of service time. Optioning either player for just a few weeks would grant the team another year of control. Unlikely in both cases but also might lend to make an extension slightly more likely. Extensions I’d offer: Valdez: $130M/6yrs (2025-2030) Abreu: $48M/6yrs (2025-2030) McCormick: $20M/3yrs+ 4th yr club/vesting option (2025-2027) Meyers: $15M/4yrs plus incentives (2025-2028) Pena: $50M/5yrs (2025-2029) Dubon: $13M/3yrs plus incentives (2025-2027)
If we miss out on Verdugo, how about Cedric Mullins? Lefty outfielder with similar numbers to Verdugo but much better WAR. Orioles were rumored to be shopping him this past deadline and they may be interested in trading for Pressley.
Would you rather have Caratini and Ben Gamel or Cesar Salazar and Anthony Santander? That's purely a hypothetical of course but everyone this side of Yordan and Altuve should have some sliding scale of consideration for the Astros to consider trading them.
I really like Mullins as long as he never starts vs a LHP. I also like the idea of him leading off and dropping Altuve to #2, Yordan at #3 vs RHP. I still think Pressly to Baltimore lines up as a good deal for him. Plus or minus $$/prospects to even out the value.
I suspect Meyers and Chas might take those deals, but I don't think the team makes those offers. I think Jake's a likely candidate to get dropped once his arbitration numbers get too big. Chas too if he delivers a 2025 anywhere close to his 2024. I think Abreu is going to want to close somewhere, and he's been the best reliever on the team for a couple years now. That's nowhere near a competitive offer for Valdez, who just saw Burnes get 6/210 and Snell get 5/182.
In 2025, I would rather have Salazar and Santander. But by 2026, 27, 28. . . I would wish they had spent his money somewhere else.
I agree with everything you said. Im not offering Valdez anywhere near market value. Too much risk especially given Houston’s financial constraints. Meyers is worth >$5M/yr strictly as a defensive replacement and platoon CF. As it stands he’s probably a non-tender candidate after 2026 so that offer would give him certainty (and protection in case of injury) and give the team a nice floor in CF. I actually went back and edited my offer for McCormick down to $20M. He’s probably not a realistic extension candidate given how bad he was last year.
Cots ( baseball prospectus) had his estimate at $4.55M. Mlbtraderumors had it at $4.6M It's close enough that it shouldn't be a sticking point, but that's $0.4-0.45M more payroll towards the CBT. I'm sure losing against him last year was a factor in this.
Mullins is on a one year 8.4 M contract and Press is owed 8.75 M contract for the next 2 years so it would be almost a clean swap. This team was already slow and we sorely need a good baserunner with Tuck leaving. Mullins stole 32 bags last season and is in the 82 percentile in base running value added. The Orioles may be hesitant to lose another OF once Santander leaves though
? Pressly is owed $14M in 2025 then a FA. The rumor is he wants an extension in order to agree to a trade.
