I'm not so sure that the luxury tax is the line in the sand anymore, the 2nd apron is what teams want to avoid. What's your plan for the PG spot next season?
They should offer Jeff Green + Landale + future non-Suns FRP or Reed Sheppard + Landale for Collin Sexton. If they did this move now, it would not have any effect on this year’s salary or luxury tax. Depending on how they fill out their roster next year, they would be over the luxury tax, but below the first apron even while keeping FVV. If they decide not to pick up FVV’s option, they would be $12-15m under the cap with multiple roster spots to fill. I’d like to see them make a move like this that helps in the stretch run and sets up some options for them this offseason. As it stands now, they pretty much have to pick up FVV’s option.
You are right, FVV is better than anything you are likely to get with the MLE or any potentially available cap space - that's why I've been saying that we need to use his salary to bring back his replacement. Any of the expiring's that we'd prefer to use along with draft capital expire this season. Tate, Adams, Green all expire, you don't have them in the offseason. Apli, Jalen, Brooks, Jabari, Tari, Amen, Shepard, Cam, Jock & Holiday are the only players under contract for next season other than FVV is you pick up the option - are you going to trade them to solve your PG issue? You start next season with 11 players on the roster if you pick up the FVV option and you are over the cap by $34m. Decline FVV's option and you are under the cap by $10m. Sure, you can decline Landale's option and gain another $8m .... but now you have 3 incomplete roster charges totaling $3.8m so you really only have $14,181,393 out of the 18m available which is slightly less than the NT-MLE.
1. I've been an Amen guy since City Reapers, but you're not living in reality if you think we go into next season with Amen as the 36 mpg primary ball handler. We will 100% have someone with mature primary ball handler skills next year (i.e., not Jalen or Amen). Assuming no "big trade", that means FVV. 2. Totally untenable IMO to tell Cam in his contract year that he's the 5th wing in the rotation and at best an ~18mpg 8th man. Organizationally, player-agent relationship wise, signaling to future draft prospects, reputationally. Can't do it. At a certain point you actually are messing with a guy's money and would be a place young players don't want to be. Also can't and shouldn't bench Dillon, obviously. One of them isn't going to be here next year, because Amen, Tari, Jabari will be.
I want Tyus Jones. Helps us and hurts PHX. Reed Sheppard just put up 49 in gleague he might be the answer next year.
Cam is just the 18th pick and he hasnt played like a superstar when given PT. Sure he shows flashes but just like JG the inconsistency is there. If he is putting up a b**** fit rn when he is only 20 then he isnt a winning player and wont be a good fit for this team just like Kmart Jr.
I believe Amen will be our best player but still not sold on him as the primary ball handler. Unless we have a really good shooting SG next to Fred I actually like him better as a 6th man. But like you said, what’s the alternative at the point guard. Eventually it would be great if Reed was that guy; hard to know how much growth we’ll see by next season. The double edge sword with stockpiling prospects is exactly what u said. No one wants to spend 2 yrs fighting for a rotation spot. But I think the upside with Cam is too high to move off him. The problem is I don’t see a real solution to his discontent. Regardless you have to give him minutes until you figure out what to do in the offseason.
We just disagree on Amen. People have created this narrative that because of his shooting and handles, he can't be the primary ball handler. Both are improving and with high usage the rest of this year in that capacity he will be ready to be the primary ball handler next year. Small sample size, but the last two games, Amen and Jalen have been the primary ball handlers and FVV has been playing off ball. I think that will be the case more often than not over the rest of the year. If it doesn't work than, yes, try to find another PG, but Fred is not the answer as his game does not match the rest of the roster, unless you are satisfied with mediocre.
Amen on/FVV and Holiday off lineups have a halfcourt PPP rating of 89.1 this year, which would be last place in the league, below the tanking teams. Forcing Amen to be the full time 35+ minutes primary ball handler next year would be doing him and us a disservice. He doesn’t need to do that next season to be on a superstar path. If we haven’t made the “big trade” by then, FVV is the obvious choice to be here in the Mike Conley role to begin next season. The question is whether it’s at like $15-20M AAV or more like ~$25-30M AAV, preferably 1 yr with a team option. There’s nobody even close to as good as FVV who we could get without expending assets and giving out long term money for what is ultimately a placeholder.
People use stats for funny things. That is for sure a small sample size stat. There was a graphic in another thread that showed 4 teammate combinations that pointed to 4 person combinations with Amen vs FVV and Amen vs Jalen. By far the Amen and Jalen combinations were better than the FVV combinations. I took that with a grain of salt, just like I take your small sample size stat. I'll just disagree and leave it at that. I hope we at least get to see for the rest of the year.
The Rockets have the second best record in the West with FVV mostly on ball (though I'm fine with him being a secondary ballhabndler) and Amen and Sengun have developed greatly with him on the floor. The Rockets are getting better. There is a large sample size that FVV is a very good guard.
I think this is the draft we need to move a few assets to get into. There are a couple of guys worth targeting and one I would like to see picked up is Ace Bailey. Dude is a 6'10" guard and has an impressive scoring package and has the defensive intensity that I think Udoka is looking for. I think he will be a star in the league that teams would build around. The only issue is he is only 18 so it's like restarting if we have to move someone like Jalen or Jabari, etc. and a couple future 1sts to get a pick like this but I think a future line up of Ace, Amen and Alpi could be the core for a long time.
Isn't he projected to go top 3? If we land around the 8-14 pick range, it will still take a lot to get him
Agreed. Rockets would have to think the same way to put together a package for him but I think if they wanted him, or anyone else, they have all the necessary assets to get into the top of this draft.
I understand what you mean. But I think more appropriately stated they need a veteran ball-handler. This is FVV's lowest APG & PPG in the last 6 years, his career low 3p%, and his post rookie-season low fg%. You should be able to get that guy on a 2/40 not be forced into thinking your only shot at him is a 1/43 unless there's something in the CBA which would prevent it. And I'm running on no sleep so it's possible I'm overlooking a significant detail.
I could get behind the idea of Jones .... solid shooter and a similar A/T ratio to FVV, above 4. What's the price tag? MLE money? More, less?
But until we actually acquire that player, we have to pick up the option. We have no backup plan. We should turn our expiring contracts into players that push our starters. We haven’t given ourselves any options at several positions. And we should be doing that now so that we can make informed decisions in the offseason.
Those are reasonable assessments. But I think it's difficult to blame the FO much as honestly who would have thought 36 games in to the year BBRef would have us as a 92% chance to be a top 4 seed? I LOVE my Rockets. But that would not have been the hill I chose to die on or my litmus for a successful year. So I think some of this is just also if it ain't broke don't fix it + playing catchup to our reality and analyzing in real-time if this is really who we are (seems like it is w/ each passing game).
