Agreed. But it needs to be structured as a player's option rather than an opt out, so the Astros get the AAV benefit. The Astros can still work something like that out, but each year needs to be less $$ to reduce the risk for the Astros. We know the Astros offered $26M per for 6 years, so they are good w/ that AAV. Bregman will want higher AAV for shorter deal (as he should) but we don't know how much, if any the Astros will be willing to go. $35M for 1 year feels like the number he needs to keep the possibility of hitting 7/$200M total. So: $30M Player option $22M w $5M b-o achieves that. After 2025, he is 32 and it is getting harder and harder for him to hit that goal w/o higher numbers those first 2 years. If he takes year 2, then he needs 5/$145M at ages 33-37 to get his $200M. Then again, if he takes it then he is either injured or has a poor 2025 and it's likely not on the table anyway. I would add $17M / $5M b-o as a 3rd year player option. Any thing more is a big risk for the Astros because of the snowball effect - he only takes year 3 if he's hurt or bad in yr 2 and he only takes year 2 if he's hurt or bad in yr 1. He's guaranteed $35M for 1 yr which is good and still gives him a chance at his $200M total goal. He also has a $22M insurance policy for 2026 which increases to $39 for 2026-2027 and if he needs to take both, $200M is WAY no longer on the table. Astros have $24M AAV which is a bit high for the risk but less than they had budgeted Lots of risk but avoids the long term commitment
Gotta pay to get a quality FA. With the Walker signing what picks would they have to give up? To add Walker/Santander it would be worth giving up draft picks/international money to get players that can help them win now. Part of the reason I believe this is, that I believe 2-3 of Smith/Matthews/Melton/Baez/Janek are going to hit in the next 2-3 years.
Sure, I would give him 7 years and it would look like this… year 1. 26 mil 2. 26 mil 3. 26 mil 4. 26 mil 5. 15 mil 6. 10 mil 7. 8 mil He can opt out after years 4,5, and 6
I believe we would lose our 3rd and 6th round picks as well. It looks like we wouldn’t lose anymore international money though.
No way Crane should do more than 5 yrs for Bregs and now that Walker has been signed it should be for 5-125 at the most. This would include trading Pressly/Caratini/Meyers etc.. to make room for Bregs money.
Another issue/ Bregman coming back is they don't get the extra draft pick for him signing elsewhere. Small consideration but not zero.
Is this based on cost of living AND state income taxes or what? It’s definitely not accurate if it’s just state income taxes.
It's not accurate, period. "Cost of living" includes gas, groceries, etc. Those amounts mean something to us, but don't mean anything to these multimillionaire ballplayers. The state income tax issue is more complicated based on visiting players being taxed in the stadiums they play in.
If the Astros offer Alex Bregman $156 million over six years and he resides in Texas, other teams from states with income taxes would need to offer higher contract amounts to match the take-home pay. Here’s the breakdown by state: Bregman with the Astros and living in Texas: • Federal Taxes: $156M × 37% = $57.72M. • Agent Fees: $156M × 5% = $7.8M. • State Taxes: $0 (Texas has no state income tax, and jock taxes are avoided by staying in Texas). • Total Taxes + Fees: $57.72M + $7.8M = $65.52M. • Take-Home Pay: $156M - $65.52M = $90.48M. Assumptions: 1. Target Take-Home: $90.48 million (Texas offer). 2. Federal Tax Rate: 37%. 3. Agent Fees: 5%. 4. State Taxes: • California: 13.3%. • New York (NYC): 14.78% (state + local). • Massachusetts: 5%. • Other states’ rates as needed. The equation to calculate the required gross contract value: 1. California: • Federal Tax: 37%. • State Tax: 13.3%. • Agent Fee: 5%. • Total Tax + Fee Rate: . California Offer: $202.38 million. 2. New York (NYC): • Federal Tax: 37%. • State + Local Tax: 14.78%. • Agent Fee: 5%. • Total Tax + Fee Rate: . New York (NYC) Offer: $209.34 million. 3. Massachusetts: • Federal Tax: 37%. • State Tax: 5%. • Agent Fee: 5%. • Total Tax + Fee Rate: . Massachusetts Offer: $170.70 million. 4. Other State Tax Rates: State State Tax Rate Required Contract Florida 0% $156.00M (same as Texas) Pennsylvania 3.07% $161.66M Illinois 4.95% $165.30M Arizona 4.54% $164.30M Wisconsin 7.65% $172.38M Georgia 5.75% $168.11M Summary: State Required Contract to Match $90.48M Take-Home Texas (Astros) $156.00M Florida $156.00M Massachusetts $170.70M Illinois $165.30M California $202.38M New York (NYC) $209.34M Insights: 1. States with no income tax (Texas, Florida, Washington) allow the $156M contract to maximize take-home pay. 2. High-tax states like California and New York (NYC) would need to offer substantially more ($202M–$209M) to match the Texas offer. 3. States with moderate tax rates (Massachusetts, Illinois, Georgia) require offers in the $165M–$170M range.
This is a non issue. Teams in cities with state income tax can easily defer money to after Bregman’s retirement when he can reside full time in a state without income tax.
Totally agree. Everyone is looking at 44 bombs and I get that but…He doesn't do much else well and he’s being highly overrated here imo. I understand the need to upgrade the lineup via outfield but I would not give this guy a 4 or 5 year deal. I’m looking to make a trade. Who? Not sure.
I don’t think you understand how “jock taxes” work. If he went to the Dodgers, he’s not paying 13% on his entire salary. Only on the games played in California. Secondly, state taxes are deductible when calculating the federal income tax. So his federal income tax amount owed will not be the same if he’s in Texas or California…it will be higher in Texas.
While this is true, they would still have to offer a higher amount to offset the decline in the NPV of the contract.
So more like this? Bregman’s take-home pay under these updated assumptions for playing with the Astros (Texas) vs. Dodgers (California): Astros (Texas): • Total salary: $156M. • Federal tax: 156M \times 37\% = 57.72M . • No state income tax. • Agent fees: 156M \times 5\% = 7.8M . • Take-home pay: 156M - 57.72M - 7.8M = 90.48M . Dodgers (California): • Total salary: $156M. • Federal tax (adjusted for SALT cap): Still 156M \times 37\% = 57.72M , as only $10K of California taxes is deductible. • California state tax (on 50% duty days): 13M/year \times 13.3\% \times 6 years = 10.374M . • Agent fees: 156M \times 5\% = 7.8M . • Take-home pay: 156M - 57.72M - 10.374M - 7.8M = 80.11M .
That’s closer but living in Texas doesn’t shield them from having to pay taxes on road games in California, etc. It’s never going to be $0 for state income taxes regardless of what team/state you sign with.
The cap on the SALT deduction expire in 2025 and Trump has intimated he wants the cap removed. That would change your math quite a bit.
