Anyone checked Arenado’s WAR lately? Maybe he won’t be that bad - but it’s not like a guarantee that he will stay at 4 for the next five years and I doubt it’s going up. Dude missed out on a reasonable check. Now it’s a crap shoot. Maybe he will get the bag. Maybe.
He doesn't not need to stay at 4. There is more than just great and terrible. A 2 is not ideal, but still a reasonanable starting player.
Their numbers also haven't been in steady decline over the last 3 or so years. Altuve's decline is in the field. If he had his range of old the Stros probably win game 2 against the Tigers.
Age has changed a lot in baseball. The Steroid-era featured players playing a long time. When pitchers didn't throw as hard, players could last a longer time. Last year, 2 position players 35+ posted a 2.0 WAR. Miguel Rojas & Carlos Santana. There were only 25 position players 35+ last season period. 6 reached 1 WAR, 17, had a positive WAR. In the last 10 years, there have been 42 seasons (27 different players) in which a 35+ position player posted a 2 WAR. Compare that to 102 times done in the 10 years before that (59 different players).
I expected it to be small because I couldn't think of any aging position stars. Decided to look at pitchers just to see if there was a similar correlation. 2024: 4 had WARs over 2. Last 10 years: 51 seasons over 2 (35 pitchers). Previous 10 years: 92 seasons over 2. (47 pitchers) So a pretty similar drop, which was a bit surprising to me, but we had a lot of HOFers at the end of their careers (Rivera, Mussina, Maddux, Glavine, Unit, Wagner, and I'll throw in Clemens & Schilling since they would be if not for other reasons). The last 10 years feature Verlander, Scherzer, & Greinke who will go in.
This is the data which says Bregman will likely only earn his contract for 3 and possibly 4 seasons. His season 5 and 6 are going to be massive overpaid. No wonder Bregman is trying to squeeze a 7th season, because in the open market he’d never sniff anything over 10 million when he turns 38 years old. But It’s funny how the national sportswriters tried to shame the Astros for calling Boras bluff, and pivoting to players that actually want to be in Houston. Bregman and Tucker were always going to be about the money. Bregman got his security cash when he agreed to sell off his arbitration years (now that he is financially secure, he’s going to get every red penny he can). Tucker always has struck me as a guy who bet on himself early, he saw the Astros had no loyalty to his brother Preston Tucker, it’s just business for him - he has enough money to live off for the rest of his life if he lives humbly (so going for the 350-500 million dollar contract is a nice bet)
You can want to get paid and still want to be someplace. I will never understand fans on the side of ownership, shaming guys for wanting to finally get evenly compensated, or even get back some of the excess value they gave to the owners for the first 6+ years of their careers. Per Fangraphs and spotract, respectively, Bregman has been worth $317.3M and made $107.8M Crane could give Alex (and the fans) a thank you by spending a bit of that extra money that he helped make him and make him an Astro for life, just like he did with Altuve. Obviously, they can choose a budget and keep a hard line on it, but there is nothing wrong with Alex wanting to get paid after giving away his prime for quarters on the dollar.
Unless there’s an under the table handshake deal, Bregman is gone. Which sucks because he’s been one of my fav players. With his departure it’ll truly feel like the era is over. Altuve is in another stratosphere as he’s a lifer of course. But yeah, can’t say I’m really shocked. I’ve shared before, but from a close source after the season ended Alex’s wife said they weren’t hopeful. Definitely looks like Bregman and Boras gambled and came nowhere close.
When the Astros were building this juggernaut, I thought Altuve would be nothing more than a placeholder until Delino DeShields was ready to step into his Astros destiny at 2nd base. Well DeShields is long gone and never achieved those lofty expectations. I am genuinely and pleasantly surprised that through it all Altuve has been the face of this dynasty. Springer, Correa, Tucker, Verlander, were huge names, but steady ‘Tuve remains the engine that could, the guy that was here when they sucked to the tune of 100 loss seasons. And now with Bregman all but likely gone, Altuve is going to be the lone constant from the 2017 title run. I am aware McCullers has been here too, but due to his health he has not been dependable for most of the past 5 seasons. I remember when Keutchel and McCullers were the 2 aces, unfortunately injuries have hampered McCullers most of his career.
Well I do not figure I am siding with ownership. But the financial landscape in MLB is that the first half of a career player will be outplaying their contract. The second half of a career the player will be overpaid base on production and contract pay. Most of the time, teams are caught between a rock and a hard place and have no alternative but to pay their veteran free agents. The Astros were not in that dire situation, they have a team with talent that figures to be in the running to finish 1 or 2 in the American League west. They brought in Paredes who might be better offensively than Bregman, but not as good defensively. If Smith, Matthews, and Melton pan out, the youth influx may continue the current dynasty. Odds are that they won’t, but at this point it is very plausible they may continue pushing this era of elite baseball into a third generation of minor league success stories. The first wave was Altuve, Bregman, Springer, Correa, Keutchel, McCullers The second wave was Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, Abreu, MCCullers, Peña The 3rd wave has already started with Yainer Diaz, Blanco, Hunter, etc.
If Bregman were to have signed the offer the Astros put out to him his total earning including his arbitration years would have been 11 years 256 million. Assuming he would have made 56 million in 3 arbitration years, him not signing the original extension would be like him singing a 8 year 200 million dollar deal at age 29. I feel like these figures are more than fair for a player of his quality and he thought he could get both the early long term security and the first mega contract. Maybe in another offseason they could have, but it looks like now they overplayed their hand. I still think Bregman ends up signing a deal with similar years and value as what we offered him, but if he had to do it again he’d just stay in Houston. I also think there’s a disconnect between Bregman thinking he’s the same guy as the when MLB was clearly juicing balls for 2 years.
I also think there’s a disconnect between Bregman thinking he’s the same guy as the when MLB was clearly juicing balls for 2 years.[/QUOTE] And maybe (I ABSOLUTELY HATE thinking this) he’s thinking he’s the same guy as when he knew what pitches were coming.
Professional athletes in all sports are wired different. There is no world where Alex does not truly believe he is still as good as he has ever been and. 1) his next team will be getting a bargain at 7/$200M and be lucky to have him 2) 2025 will be his best ever season. He has never had less than 4 WAR in a full season he was healthy, and has averaged 5.8 per 162 games in just career. 2021 he was hurt, only played 91 games and was on pace for 3.7. 4 WAR is worth $32-$40M depending on who you believe/follow/agree with. I'm certain he absolutely believes his worth is $200M or more based on what he sees teams and other players doing
Here's my thought. What happens when a player signs a long contract (possibly career ending one) that they feel is below their worth, then over the years see others signing for more. Does that player not try as hard because "why" if money is not a factor anymore? Do they try hard in spurts to prolong their career, even if it means playing only 2/3rds of a season when they could ride it out? I wouldn't want anyone on our team that feels like their long term contract was beneath them, so glad he didn't settle originally. But if he were to come around now thinking the Astros had the best offer and he was okay with it, then I'd welcome him back. So good for him to explore just to make sure, but it may have cost him quite a bit in cash or wins.
Some players are straight-up bulldog alpha-male competitors, and some players get lazy and complacent.... Bregman does not strike me as the lazy type.
Paul Goldschmidt just signed a 1 year deal for 12.5M at age 37 after putting up just over 1 WAR last season. It’s certainly possible to think a 37 or 38 year old mediocre Bregman could get 10M for 1 year especially given the average salary goes up over time, not down. I don’t know what Bregman’s specific targets are, but I doubt 1 year at 10M is the make or break as much as the total guaranteed money he’s looking for.
Maybe not lazy but he has played the last 5 years with zero personality. Total flat-line demeanor from him since the scandal broke. His hitting is flat most of the time too when you need him to come through.
2019: Monster MVP Type Year 2020: Wackass Covid Year 2021: Releases his blandass salsa in the spring, has worst year of his career 22/23: Perfectly respectable+ middle of the order run-producing bat 2024: Not good at all
