D BPM has him negative EPM has him in the 14th (I think ) percentile for defense If you look at on-off on basketball reference, opposing teams offensive rating when green is on the floor is 109 ish ... When he is off the floor other teams offensive ratings drop to 101.5 When green is on the floor , opposing teams assist at a higher rate , and turn it over less frequently. I hate offensive and defensive rating but his D rating is 109 and the teams overall is 106 There's nothing in the data to suggest green is a good defender. I agree the film on him has been a bit better this year, but the film also shows he's a weak link on the team Which stats do you have that say he's good ?
Me: Says what actually happened* YOU: "YOU'RE A NARRATIVE HUNTER AREN'T YOU" LMAO Youre an idiot. There's your Narrative. Run with that.
If JR Rider was 22 being a leading scorer on a potential 55+ win NBA team then ya has on pace to be JR Rider. AI at the same age as Green was doing his thing of averaging around 22 ppg on a 22 win team. Let's have some patience.
His dbpm was higher before last night. And last night his defense was rather emaculate minus one of two possessions which can be said of any player which goes to show how limited advanced stats for defense is. Sometimes there is no shortcut to basketball analysis. Spitting out advanced metrics that you have no understanding how mathematical models are formed for those metrics is a shortcut that often leads someone astray from actual analysis.
Gawd, the impertinence, the team and Udoka are the reason for the 55+ potential..... How can folks be that delusional. If chucking is actually worshipped around here, then people like him are the perfect role model.
Last time I checked Green was part of said team? Is there a high usage player on this team I throw under the bus like you instantly like a coke addict?
First of all my background is in econometrics and data analysis , so I wouldn't say I have no idea how the models work . I agree the defensive metrics readily available to the public aren't great . Buuuut BPM is generally though of a a decent one , same with epm . And the fact that they are flawed may suggest some error , but what percent ? If all the defensive metrics have green near the bottom of our team ... Maybe if specifically for him they are missing out on contributions then he might be average . But I don't think we can say he is a GOOD defender yet . Maybe one day I will pay for synergy
And I'm a mechanical engineer who studied dynamic system modelling(setting up systems of partial differential equations... The type of systems used to model things like climate modeling) But without the actual intellectual curiosity in understanding the specific advanced metrics, this background knowledge you and I have is useless. Go watch the entire game. Green was pretty damn amazing on defense the entire game. Near emaculate switching, communication, not being lazy and just playing passing lanes(cough... Whitmore... Cough), using lateral foot speed to not allow blow bys. Maybe one or two possessions on defense you could fault Green with witch you could do for any player. Yet his dpbm fell last game which to me shows the uselessness of advanced defensive analytics. Most NBA analysts also believe that advanced offensive metrics are more reliable than advanced defensive metrics.
Well then don't ask which metrics ... And then proceed to trash all metrics Advanced offensive metrics don't do green that many favors either
I have a different takeaway from this than you. The defensive rating gap with Green on/off on this team being this small suggests Green is part of the linked chain that makes this defense great. I would expect the gap to be a lot larger if he was a bad defender. One, He's a starter. So his minutes align more against opposing star offensive players. Also this team has two of the best bench defensive players in the NBA with Tari and Amen. So when you are being replaced by elite defenders from the bench and you are a starter who mostly plays against opposing star offensive players, and team defensive rating only falls to only 109 from 106 when Green is on the court suggests he's holding his own.
No his advanced offensive metrics haven't been great this season. He's been disappointing on offense. You think I don't call out where Green actually deserves criticism?
He's been better as an on ball defender - One on one defending his man ..... but he's still atrocious as a team and help defender. He gives up an awful lot of back door / baseline action.
I can see the validity in this thesis . A few counters points ... #1 - rotations are fluid . Many times green is also in the game with those two. #2 - some of what you are saying is picked up from his individual on-off .... The 109 to 106 is on the team page . If you go to the on-off section , it shows an on court d rating of 109 and off court of 101.5 .... The 106 team overall is from when he is playing AND not playing . So the drop off is actually quite steep. #3 not only are our rotations fluid , so are other teams . It's not guaranteed other teams stars come off just because green takes a break . #4 this analysis also leaves out other starters changing out . Yes Eason and Amen are great , Brooks , FVV (and sengun too maybe) are also good . Aaron Williams and a recovering Steven Adams may not be . Overall the season is still young and I agree I see some positives on film . I just don't think it's enough to call green a good defender yet . We will really find out once a few more pieces are shuffled around . And we see more
I strongly disagree with this. His off ball communication and teamwork on switching is great especially when he's switched onto a big and smartly and efficiently is able to communicate the switch back to a non mismatch with a teammate whether it's Alpi, Adams, Brooks etc (someone stronger and bigger) without a defensive gap that allows an opening for the opposing team. He also is great at helping and stunting drives from a off ball defensive position and quickly recovering back to his originally defensive assignment if the driver passes back out due to Green stunting. Green has created multiple turnovers this season from stunting from a off ball defensive position towards the driver.
