Yeah, I don’t think it was unreasonable to think that either. That said, he also should have known the Astros don’t budge and have always been willing to pivot. This is where I agree with the others in that Boras should have known that the Astros pulling out and the Yankees seemingly not being interested would kill any leverage he has left. If he had offers on the table for 7+, he should have taken them before the Astros pulled out. And if he didn’t, he should have just taken the Astros offer because the likelihood he’s going to get one after the fact becomes a lot less likely. We’ll see what he ends up getting but the Mets don’t really need a 3B so that only leaves a couple realistic teams, one of those being the Sox who also don’t necessarily NEED a 3B.
He's going to get Correa'd. He will get stuck with a high AAV but very short contract with opt outs so he can try again next year, and he will wish he just took the Astros offer and put this to bed. I respect how Brown and the front office quickly beefed up their infield without him. You snooze you lose. At this point it might be the Tigers. Detroit won't give him the long term high dollar contract he wants because they don't want to get burned like they did with Baez. Red Sox the same thing after the Trevor Story fiasco.
But that’s how the big market teams win. They just buy up everyone. What’s the solution? A hard cap? I understand market value and all that blah blah stuff. Pro athletes just make far too much money and it’s reached absolutely disgusting levels. It’s one reason why the NBA is a horrible product now. I would hate to see baseball turn into that garbage.
And then with another middling season that doesn't even look decent until mid-August, he will REALLY be regretting not having re-signed. Also, in regards to the Red Sox, I believe Devers recently said publicly that he does not want to change positions.
Everything you are saying is reasonable. I disagree about the fielding. Range is not as much a factor at 3b than 2b which is why I feel moving Alex to 2b is not a good option. Its also why I think Altuve's value will fall faster (and is already significantly worse).They both have arms that are barely adequate- thats a wash. I also feel that any type of electronic strike zone implemented will give Alex a boost while not really impact Altuve at all. Altuve is 4 years older and out of his prime while Alex could possibly squeeze another year or two out before the age regression begins. I hope like hell that Altuve can hold off father time and continue to be a good player. But I have doubts. As for Alex, I want him to continue his 4 WAR seasons and entually make a compelling HOF case, though I think he is not far enough along through age 30 for that to be realistic. I just want him to falter vs the Astros. Overall, I want both players to continue to be great. They are both great players and I like watching great baseball.
The solution is incentives for players to stay with their current team while making it cheaper for owners to keep players than replace them. I'm open to ideas HOW.
I do think Boras made the mistake of thinking the Astros would not sign a guy with a QO attached ( he'll, I did) and had few other options, so he overestimated his position. Boras lives in the world of MLB free agency. What has happened the past 20+ years is what he knows and what he has seen and experienced. He KNOWS that a 31 year old player who has averaged over 5.5 WAR per 162g in his career and coming off 3 consecutive seasons over 4 WAR will get 7 years through age 37. That has been what has happened over and over again. Unfortunately, for him ( and Alex), the Astros still have a little of Luhnow's influence left and think a little differently.
Technically his "free agent" years started 2 years ago... so it won't be such a big deal if he gets another 4-6 year deal on top of that, but this was always going to be the risk for him or any other older players (whether they were older due to later callups - Springer, or signing an earlier extension - Bregman, Yordan).
But if teams constantly got significant diminishing returns after year 2 or 3 of those deals... wouldn't that eventually lead to a market correction? In addition to the corrections that happen within the dynamic of the game, as to which stats/metrics start to get overvalued vs undervalued, and resultant contract offers based on that? It does suck for the "upper middle class" player trying to possibly stick with the "upper middle class" team as the former is no longer going to get overpaid by the teams that usually would have done it (super big market), and the latter got to being upper middle class due to winning a lot and being ultra-pragmatic/non-emotional about it.
Yes of course there will be a market correction and this very well may be it. But Boras can't expect anything less than what previous FAs have received. And he damn sure can't go to his client and say, "Your getting less because Xander Boegaerts sucks." Everything has always gone up and Alex is looking around and seeing everyone else getting more than projected. I honestly think Alex wanted to come back and held off on offers from other teams expecting the Astros to give in to the 7th year. When the music stopped (the Walker signing) Alex didn't have a chair to sit in. Now Boras is trying to find more chairs and restart the music, lol.
I still have this weird feeling the Astros and Bregs are not a "fully moved on from" deal. Bregs tested the waters and can't see him being a stick in the mud if Houston's offer of 6/156 is truly the best deal and best successful atmosphere. I fully agree that Bregs never intended on actually leaving unless he was blown away from another offer, which never materialized.
Same, but it would still be hard to imagine given the roster construction. Would have to be essentially a 1 year deal (via opt-out). Walker did play OF in the minors and we've seen Bregman go out there, but you're sure cutting their defensive value putting one of them in LF. I can't see them increasing Yordan's time in the OF. It was like they went out of their way to make sure the first holes they plugged were the ones Bregman could fill.
I agree that the chances he comes back aren't zero. But I think 25% is very optimistic. 10% may be realistic. 162 games is a long season and nobody plays 162 games anymore. They would open the season with 4 potential All Stars for 3 spots, so would have great insurance in case of injury. I have heard that Paredes could play LF and is willing. Let's say, the goal is to play Walker, Bregman, Paredes, and Yordan 150 games and Altuve 145. Make Paredes a utility player. 1b: Walker 150g Paredes 12g 2b: Altuve 145g Paredes 17g 3b: Bregman 138g Paredes 24g SS: Pena 150g Bregman 12g LF: Yordan 40g Paredes 45g player X 77 DH: Yordan 110g Paredes 52g Paredes may not be very good in LF but it's not a difficult or crucial spot. Remember Trey Mancini and Carlos Lee? Bregman may be Rusty and slow at SS but he has lots of experience there (even if it was years ago) muscle memory may return. He may not get to as many balls but will field the ones he does. Let's hope the runners are slow. And it's only 12 games. If that doesn't work, just reduce everyone down 3 more games. There are still pinch hit opportunities. And of course 1 injury throws these numbers out the window but having that extra player could save the season.
True, also Pena being traded is always an option mid-season if the above doesn't work out. His value could be quite high as he's under control for several years and perhaps we get a solid SP in return if we need one by then.
I'm with you. Another factor is that Bregman is better vs RHP than LHP so it would reduce the need for another LH outfielder. In fact, Walker and Paredes are also very good vs RHP. It would allow Dezenzo or Leon to take over RF, Meyers and Chas to platoon in CF, and Chas to play most of the games in LF that Yordan and/or Paredes aren't out there. Also, either Meyers or Chas would be on the bench if Yordan or Paredes starts in LF, so there is a good defensive replacement if needed.
Lets see what/where Bregs ends up signing before making this post. Crane's ran his org a certain way and has been successful letting guys like Bregs go. (I like Bregs) Until Crane's model fails I'm willing to not only give him the benefit of the doubt, but I'm happy he runs HIS org the way he runs it. He's certainly not the bad guy here. Ownership shouldn't fall in love with players. Ownership should try to maximize their resources not make emotional decisions. Some fans live in the world of emotional decisions, or always looking for the chance for a new rebuild. Ownership knows that putting a contender on the field brings fans and money. So I expect Crane to try to win as long as Altuve/Alvarez and pitching are on the roster. Signing a 33 year old Walker told me Crane isn't going to be rebuilding anytime soon. Rightfully so
