When ffv was signed there were some analytical people talking about the risk of quick decline small pg turning 30. So I was pretty relieved when it was confirmed that his last year was player option. Then after last year I thought, hey maybe if the Rockets don't find anyone, they should just pick up the option. Now, I'm back to being glad his last year is a team option.
Pick up option and trade him an expiring, hopefully Ant or Booker. If you let him expire best available this summer is what Harden, Ingram, Butler, Randall, LeBron.
Fred has been shockingly disappointing so far this season. So much so that I can't help but wonder if there is something wrong with him physically. He doesn't look like the same dude out there and his December has been brutal.
I don't think it's worth turning that TO down. We are going to need it to have the flexibility to make a big trade. I'm assuming we will be operating over the cap next year anyways, so no point in turning down the TO.
Disregarding the fact of whether Ant of Booker becomes available, you don't need fvv's salary to match their's. And if anything it makes no sense for Phoenix and Minnesota to gain salary by taking on FFV's contract given all the luxury tax problems they face.
You're not the only one who keeps talking about keeping these vets because the Rockets are over the cap anyways. I am surprised at all the people who think Tilman will pay luxury taxes and repeater taxes going forward like it's a given. Perhaps you guys are right and I am too cynical. However, I will choose to believe it when I actually see it. Cause I've watched this team since before the luxury tax was in existence, and I've yet to see a year in which the Rockets went over the tax. And back then the luxury tax was much tamer than it is today.
I'm looking at sportrac salaries and it seems we would be just over the tax. It's possible the team makes some maneuvers to get under it. I do believe there is a high likelihood we will renegotiate a longer term deal, with lower salary numbers with Fred. I agree with you, I don't think Tilman is going to go over the tax just for the sake of being over either. He does still see this as a business afterall.
Yes, I can see FVV returning on a renegotiated deal. But definitely not on his current option. Keep in mind the sportrac number doesn't account for 1st round pick salary nor any offseason signing the Rockets make with their MLE. The latter, unless they pass on the good ones and only sign a cheap player, will put them over the tax for sure. The only way they duck the tax is if the Suns stay out of the lottery and the Rockets don't use their MLE. Neither of which seems like a good idea just to keep FVV.
I would still consider keeping FVV. I think it's unlikely he shoots like this the rest of his career. You could pickup his player option then extend him for a lower amount going forward. Something like: 2025: $44M 2026: $20M 2027: $18M 2028: $16M That makes him more of a role player that you don't have to keep in the starting lineup for the life of the contract. He can kind of gradually take a lesser role like Horford on the Celtics. Even while having a down year he's still a leader on the team. I think there would be some drop off in team execution if we let him go that is difficult to quantify.
It seems inevitable that we will pick up the player option. I imagine we will negotiate a couple extra years onto his contract. Something like pmac references to above. maybe in a couple years Fred is our seventh guy and that’s when we win the title.
FVV's contract is expiring. if we take on his team option he is expiring next year. That's what makes his contract attractive in a trade. Phoenix is absolutely screwed. They are in mediocre hell until they divest of both Booker and Durant. Beal is untradeable. I'm not sure I'm all that hot on Booker and damn sure not hot on Durant. Maybe we can do a 3 way with Minnesota and Phoenix if Ant demands out. This trade works this year. It would be much easier after the season, but just for fun: Hou In: Ant, Dillingham, Tyus Jones Pho In: Jalen, Tate, Adams, Reed 25 swap with Rockets back, 27 own pick Minn In: Booker, Bol Bol, Rockets 27, 29, 30 pick Minnesota gets a top 10 player 3 FRP's. Houston get Ant. Phoenix gets Jalen and Reed for potential and 2 of the their picks back (can tank the rest of the year) and trade Durant to a contender for mostly picks. Jalen's poison pill made this very hard. Ant would have to force it. Phoenix are idiots not to trade Booker and Durant before next year.
Highly unlikely FVV will take that contract and except a bench role that we need for him to take next year at the latest. The only reason to exercise FVV's option is to trade him.
I won't bother judging your hypothetical trade, since 3 team trades featuring 2 all-stars and poison pill player has about as much chance of happening as I wake up next to two supermodels tomorrow morning, but my original post was just about Rockets being able to match enough salary for both Booker and Ant without FVV this year. And they can also do the same next year. They are also not going to push the team into luxury cap and start the repeater clock just to retain FVV next year, so the odds that FVV plays on his team option is nearly zero. Which means he will either be a smaller expiring or on a long term deal.
I get annoyed at how Fred plays sometimes, but we don’t really have any evidence besides the eye test that Amen-Jalen-Cam would be better this year (besides in fun factor) still, I’d like for there to be some run of a super fast and athletic lineup without FVV, just to see. Again, literally no evidence to say that kind of lineup would work…but we definitely won’t be bored
I get it. I just did it for fun. I think bringing back FVV on the team option or at a reduced extension is idiotic. He is holding back our true stars, not helping them. We can aggregate enough salary without FVV (who nobody will want unless it is expiring) to get a star. I'm really starting to think we need to ride this out and hope to get lucky in the lottery. Let FVV walk, trade Jalen if he doesn't get better and keep moving foward with a core of Amen, Jalen or trade, Dillon, Bari, Sengun. If Ant becomes available then anyone other than Amen and Sengun should be available. Maybe Jabari should be protected as well, but a player like Ant is going to get a haul. Maybe in the off-season we could get a good pick for 26 and a stop gap SG for Jalen. The next 2 drafts are loaded.
FVV currently playing 38 out of possible 42 minutes against a Luka-less Mavs team shooting 1-8. This pretty much just sums up why the Rockets number one priority this trade deadline, assuming they can't swing for a star, is to get a legit backup PG.
NBA rotation players with >19% usage and <50% True Shooting Stephon Castle (age 20) Scoot Henderson (20) Keon Johnson (22) Zaccharie Risacher (19) Alex Sarr (19) Fred VanVleet (30)
