Wonder if the Red Sox would be a good trade partner. Boston is rumored to be looking for a lefty SP and a bullpen arm to possibly be their closer or at least be their setup man. Triston Casas is a name that seems to be in a lot of those rumors, along with former Astro Wilyer Abreu. Anyone think Boston might be interested in a Framber Valdez & Ryan Pressly deal? Casas would solve the 1B problem. He has an injury history but would be very low cost (isn't a free agent until 2029). I imagine Boston would insist Masataka Yoshida would have to be in the deal. He's owed $18.6 million for the next three years but he could be a decent option in LF. I'd think Pressly would approve the deal if he had a legit opportunity to close. Not sure what the entire deal might look like but the framework would be something like Framber Valdez & Ryan Pressly for Tristan Casas & Masataka Yoshida. I'd like to think Houston would be able to get a little more back. The deal would open up a hole at SP that would have to be filled, maybe with a low-end option like Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson/Marco Gonzales/Martin Perez.
Quick exercise Steamer projections. WAR stays constant - age 32 then - 0.5 WAR per year. $8M value per WAR. 3 yrs of arbitration salaries $1.36M/WAR, $2.13M/WAR, $3.59 M/WAR ( per Fangraphs) Framber 3.7 WAR /$17.5M est. = +$12.1M value for argument let's say as a closer Pressly doubles his value to 1.2 WAR /$14M = -$4.4M value. Yoshida 3.0 projected WAR /$54M = -$30M value Casas 10.0 projected WAR /$18M = +$62M value Astros are giving up $7.7 M total in value Red Sox are giving up $32M total in value Abreu 6.8 WAR / $13M = +$41.4M value Substitute Abreu for Casas and it's much closer= +$7.7M to +$11.4M
Those arbitration salaries are no good; for players like Abreu and Casas it’ll be double that. Regardless of what the numbers say, I think it would be monumentally stupid for Houston to trade Framber for essentially 1 defensively limited non-elite hitting young player who is already using service time.
Thanks for this. This poor information from Fangraphs is a contributing factor to why many of my trade suggestions are viewed as too Astro friendly. I guess that information is an average of all players, with stars getting more. I would be better off finding a comp.
@Snake Diggit what would a deal centered around Arenado and Nootbaar look like? I saw a mock for them and RHP Ryan Hernandez to NYY for Jasson Dominguez…and I thought, surely we can match that type of offer.
I’d say Nootbar has about $25M in surplus value, with Arenado roughly even value since Colorado is covering $10M of his salary. So my hypothetical would be something like: Astros get: LF Lars Nootbar 3B Nolan Arenado $16M ($10M from COL, $6M from STL) Cardinals get: CF Jacob Melton P AJ Blubaugh P Trey Dombroski
interesting. Thanks. Seems like a lot. I like Lars, but I’m not sure I want to bet on Arenado…he’ll be 34 at the start of next season and under contract through 2027.
I could be way off. Big potential variance on perception of Astros prospects and Arenado. It could be much less like swapping Melton out for Zach Cole.
The Orioles are likely going to lose Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. In the event that the Astros try to trade Framber and/or Tucker and/or Pressly- the Orioles could be a good match in some capacity.
Nootbar plays about 2/3 of a season, every season, btw ...and why wouldn't you give Arenado's money to Bregman?
Because Areado makes about 16 mil per season for the next couple of seasons and Bregs is rumored to want 25 mil per season.
Arenado is making $74m the next three seasons and the Rockies are picking up $10 of that. So he'll cost $21m per. He's unfortunately fallen off since his Gold Glove / All Star days. He's already at the "overpaid on the back end of a contract" part of his career.
The Cards would have to pickup 5 mil per yr, so Arenado would be making 16 mil per year. Arenado is still very good in the field and being a dead pull hitter makes him Crawford Box friendly. I read somewhere he still has good exit velocity. Ilf Bregs walks, they will bring in Palanco.
The hypothetical trade we were discussing had the Cards picking up $6m total, so 2 per year. That brings him to $19m/season. You can see his exit velo here at baseball savant. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nolan-arenado-571448?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Exit velo in the bottom 9%. Dropped way off the past two seasons. His bat may be cooked. Still a good defender, like you said.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024...-space-framber-valdez-ryan-pressly-trade.html In the spirit of that article: Orioles get: SP Framber Valdez RP Ryan Pressly $2M Astros get: 3B Coby Mayo OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. OF Stiven Martinez Astros shed ~$30M in payroll and get an MLB ready MLB Top 20 prospect who can slot in as their everyday 3B, 1B, or LF. They also get a top 100 OF prospect and a very high ceiling big bonus DSL lotto. Houston can then use their ~$50M in available payroll to sign 1 more big bat (Bregman, Santander, Walker), a pitcher to provide innings insurance (Manaea, Heaney, Gibson), and a cheaper veteran RP to replace Pressly (Neris, Martin, Finnegan).
Agreed, best we as fans can hope for us if Bregs walks they can use that money to sign a guy like Walker and Palanco.
