I dont think that the Stros have one of the worst farm systems as long as they've got prospects like Blubaugh/Gusto/Gordon/Baez/Matthews/Brito etc... for the last 2-3 years I keep hearing how bad the Stros farm system is and every year they bring up a France or Blanco type prospect and keep on rolling along.
This is a great point and clearly brings the playing field between the importance of Framber and the importance of Tucker closer. However, Framber still only has ANY impact in 20% of all games. His impact in those games is much much greater, but he can do nothing to help the team in the other 80%. Tucker, or any starting position player can at least impact all 162 games depending on health. As for Framber's 3681 batters faced vs Tucker's 2,561 plate appearances, that only considers 1 aspect of the game - plate appearances. Once you add Tucker's 1,166 vs Framber's 121 total chances, in the field, and then add opportunities as a baserunner (which is tough to quantify because it's a continuation of a plate appearance) Their total opportunities to impact 4374 outs over 162 games becomes pretty even. But none of that considers my bigger point, which is how the player being absent would impact the team. Currently if Tucker is gone, then someone like Trammell, Hummel, or Leon must suddenly become a starter in the OF and replace Kyle's production. That is beyond scary. If Framber is gone, Blanco, Brown, Arrighetti, and Garcia are still projected to be starters and a guy like France, McCullers, Gusto, Gordon, or Blubaugh would need to replace Framber. While that's not ideal, it is far from tragic and a much better scenario than they would be facing in the OF.
If you think those names would put up anything similar to Framber's production, you're very much kidding yourself. McCullers... lol. France, Gusto, Gordon, Blubaugh are all probably back of the rotation guys. The drop off would, indeed, be tragic. We didn't have enough pitching last season so we had to get a SP at the deadline. Losing two of our top three would be game over without a TOR replacement. And Hunter-Arrighetti-Blanco-Garcia is not an adequate playoff rotation.
Without infusing the team with youth and upgrading our position players there is really no need to carry an ace. One pitcher can not make much difference in a team sport like baseball all by himself.
You could apply that to Altuve. Or Tucker. Or Alvarez. Or Hader. Or Hunter Brown. Yes, no one player makes as big a difference in baseball as they do in other sports. Yet, they’re all important. Even moreso if they’re one of 5 (and happen to be a lefty, and happen to be the only pitcher on this staff to throw 200+ innings in a season).
They want to add an outfield bat. Does that guarantee Chas in CF? No but it seems very possible. They tried to trade Meyers last year for an arm and there was no trade interest. This year he has been in discussions as well - but seems to have little value.
Unfortunately Meyers is the type of player only savvy teams will want to trade for and they will likely not be giving up real value; my guess is there is interest but it’s only 2-3 teams and it’s not what Houston thinks is anywhere close to fair value.
Or teams are valuing Meyers correctly. It doesn't surprise me Meyers has very little value around MLB. What is a fourth OF worth?
Meyers’ value is heavily dependent on how you value defense and how much of his injury history you think has prevented him from performing. In under 2 full seasons’ worth of plate appearances he has 4.7 fwar. Having him post 15 HR with elite CF defense in everyday play is not a 4th OF. He was 13th among all MLB CF in fWAR this season. I’m sure there are probably 2-3 other teams that view him as a $10M-15M/yr player. But they know the trade market for him is narrow so they aren’t going to give up that much value for him.
Unless the Astros decide to completely change course and deviate from what they have been pursing in the off season - the Astros are NOT trading Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez.
Of course none of them are as good as Framber. I thought I made it clear that I ONLY think they are closer to Framber than any RF option is to Tucker.
I wonder what the market for Verlander is looking like. Cy Verlander is gone, but I know he doesn't want to go out with a whimper. At a certain dollar amount I would surely be willing to bet on his gamesmanship and work ethic that he has another solid season left in him. Could open up a chance to trade one of the other starters (not Brown/Framber) to address the offense.
I agree Brown should be off limits. Trading any other SP besides Arrighetti and Blanco would be selling low and the return would likely be underwhelming. If they sign Verlander to a 1 year deal and then trade away anyone but Framber, then that's 3 fewer SP the team has next off season causing a huge hole on the roster going into 2026. Unless of course the trade brings back a SP (or more)
The innings Framber eat do affect the other games by keeping the bullpen fresh. Definitely to a smaller extent but it helps. If he goes 8 or 8.1 during one of our 16 games in a row stretches, the bullpen break is hard to quantify.
I think it's been pretty clear that the Astros are holding on to both Framber and Tuck. Any talk about trading them has been simply from a wish and fantasy point of view. I still think it's a clear mistake to hold Framber but it's their mistake to make.
Which two teams, exactly? The value calculator based on WAR only makes sense in terms of paying free agents. You can't pay everyone on the team and the back end of the roster is always filled out with guys like Meyers. Defense-only guys are not worth much. The trade market has told us he's not valued by anybody as a 10-15m player or they would have traded for him. The Astros would release him rather than pay close to that. He's likely to not start next season, so whatever teams you think really value him could have him if they want him.
Agreed. There was a brief glimmer during one of his decent runs at the plate last season that maybe he figured it out (or got over the injury, or whatever)…. But they adjusted and he hasn’t really adjusted back. At 28 going on 29, he is who he is at the plate. He is who he is defensively too (very good), but that could regress in the next few years. Not sure he’s adept enough at the plate to carve out a Kiermaier, Pillar, Buxton like career. A Marisnick, Michael Taylor track seems more plausible, but even those guys were slightly better at the plate in their age 28 season. Will always be over-valued here due to the Click stuff and the relative hole that position has showcased throughout the golden era (even when Springer was here… as he played RF as much). But last year was likely the best/last opportunity of everyday-starts for a non rebuilding team.
The most likely outcome is that the Astros do not win the World Series and lose Valdez and Tucker in free agency. However - what is the 15% chance the Astros win the World Series worth (with Valdez)? I would argue a lot more than the tepid return they would get for Valdez. How many times before this run were the Astros genuine World Series contenders? 4 times in 50 years? I personally would keep Valdez and Tucker and go for it. The Astros are not likely to get pieces that make a major difference long term in a deal involving Valdez or Tucker. The time to trade them for real high value was years ago. The Astros can always deal one or both at the deadline if they are not a World Series contender.
