Advanced NBA Stats - which ones do you believe in?

There are so many, and I find it confusing. Which ones do you believe in? Or do you say they are all useless, only counting stats count? Or only the eye test?

Advanced NBA stats provide deeper insights into player and team performance, moving beyond traditional metrics like points, rebounds, and assists. Here's an overview of these stats:

Player Impact Metrics
1. Box Plus-Minus (BPM)

• Definition: An estimate of a player's overall impact per 100 possessions based on box score stats.
• Usage: Measures a player's impact on the team's performance while on the court.
• Adjusted Versions:
  • OBPM: Offensive Box Plus-Minus.
  • DBPM: Defensive Box Plus-Minus.

2. Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM)

• Definition: Uses play-by-play and box score data to estimate a player's impact on the game.
• Advantage: Adjusts for teammates and opponents, providing a more accurate measure than BPM.

3. LEBRON (Luck-adjusted Player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized On-Off)

• Definition: A comprehensive impact metric developed by BBall Index.
• Usage: Combines box score data, on/off splits, and adjustments for randomness to evaluate a player's all-around impact.
• Components: Offensive LEBRON and Defensive LEBRON.

4. Player Impact Estimate (PIE)

• Definition: Measures a player's total statistical contribution to the game, scaled by the team's overall stats.
• Formula: (Player's stats ÷ Total game stats) × 100.
• Context: Easy to interpret as it gives a percentage of total impact.

5. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

• Definition: Combines box score stats into a single per-minute rating.
• Limitations: Doesn’t account for defense or team context well.

6. Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)

• Definition: Estimates the number of wins a player contributes compared to a replacement-level player.
• Usage: Popular for comparing players across seasons.

7. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)

• Definition: Similar to WARP, measures a player’s total value compared to a replacement player.
• BPM Relationship: VORP is derived from BPM.

Team Metrics
8. Net Rating

• Definition: Difference between a team's Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).
• Formula: (Offensive Rating – Defensive Rating).

9. Offensive and Defensive Ratings

• Definition:
  • Offensive Rating: Points a team or player produces per 100 possessions.
  • Defensive Rating: Points a team or player allows per 100 possessions.

10. On/Off Stats

• Definition: Measures the difference in team performance with a player on the court versus off the court.
• Example: On-Court Net Rating – Off-Court Net Rating.

11. Pace

• Definition: The number of possessions a team uses per 48 minutes.
• Importance: Helps contextualize stats for teams with different playing speeds.

Shot and Scoring Efficiency
12. True Shooting Percentage (TS%)

• Definition: Adjusts scoring efficiency for field goals, free throws, and three-pointers.
• Formula: (Points ÷ (2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA))).

13. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)

• Definition: Adjusts field goal percentage to account for the extra value of three-pointers.
• Formula: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) ÷ FGA.

14. Usage Rate (USG%)

• Definition: Estimates the percentage of team possessions used by a player while on the court.
• Formula: (FGAs + 0.44 × FTAs + Turnovers) ÷ Team Possessions.

Rebounding Metrics
15. Rebounding Percentage

• Definition:
  • Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%): Proportion of available offensive rebounds a player grabs.
  • Defensive Rebound Percentage (DREB%): Proportion of available defensive rebounds a player grabs.
  • Total Rebound Percentage (TREB%): Proportion of total available rebounds grabbed.

Defensive Metrics
16. Defensive Win Shares (DWS)

• Definition: Estimates the number of wins a player contributes to their team through defense.

17. Steal Percentage (STL%) and Block Percentage (BLK%)

• Definition: Percentage of opponent possessions where a player records a steal or block.

+/- Stats
18. Plus-Minus (+/-)

• Definition: Measures the point differential when a player is on the court.
• Types:
  • Raw +/-: Doesn't adjust for context.
  • Adjusted +/-: Accounts for teammates, opponents, and game situations.

19. Real Plus-Minus (RPM)

• Definition: A player’s estimated impact on team performance, adjusted for teammates and opponents.

Advanced Playmaking Stats
20. Assist Percentage (AST%)

• Definition: Percentage of teammates’ field goals assisted by a player while on the court.
• Formula: (Assists ÷ Teammate FGs Made).

21. Turnover Percentage (TOV%)

• Definition: Turnovers per possession used by a player.

Miscellaneous Stats
22. Floor Impact Counter (FIC)

• Definition: Aggregates box score stats to measure a player’s overall contribution to the game.
• Formula: (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – (Missed Shots + Turnovers).

23. Clutch Stats

• Definition: Stats during clutch situations (last 5 minutes, score within 5 points).

24. Win Shares (WS)

• Definition: Estimates a player’s contributions to team wins.

These stats collectively provide a comprehensive picture of basketball performance, helping analysts and fans understand the game's nuances beyond traditional box scores.

 

I'll try to post a few on this thread later or tomorrow, when I'm back at my computer.

 

I looked at this one and it had some weird results...Jay Huff really high still, etc.

 

OK here we go, as of Nov. 26, 2024 (18 games played) - if I get around to it, I might update this later in the season.

BPM: Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (9th in NBA)



EPM: Best Rockets player: Fred van Vleet (11th in NBA) - also: Alperen Sengun (13th in NBA)



LEBRON: Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (12th in NBA) - also: Fred van Vleet (13th in NBA)



PIE (filtered for at least 20 minutes/game and at least 14 games played): Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (4th in NBA)



More in next post.

 

PER: Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (17th in NBA) (really 15th if you filter out Robert Williams and Banchero, who have played few games)



VORP: Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (7th in NBA) - also: Tari Eason (18th in NBA) and Fred van Vleet (28th in NBA)



Net Rating (filtered for at least 25 min/game and at least 14 games played): Best Rockets player: Alperen Sengun (7th in NBA) - also: Fred van Vleet (15th in NBA)



On/Off (only comparing Rockets players' impact): Best Rockets player: Dillon Brooks

 

I have subscriptions to Stathead, Cleaningtheglass, BBallIndex, etc. - if you are interested in me looking something up, and I have the time, I can try to do it.