If the Astros trade one of Tucker and Valdez - then they are trading both of them. They are either in to win 2025 or they are not - there is no middle ground. Unless something has very recently changed, Brown and Crane believe that they can fix their line up issues. FWIW I don't think the likelihood of resigning Valdez and/or Tucker is figuring into the Astros equation for 2025 and trading them at all. If they decide they will go for it in 2025, they are keeping both - if not, then they are dealing both. The chance of Tucker resigning is very low - less than anyone since Correa.
Of course - but hindsight is 20/20. It comes down to what is the value of having another legitimate shot at a title in 2025 versus the likely lost utility of assets you can get for Tucker and Valdez. Then again - if I am trading Valdez and Tucker, then I am dealing a handful of other guys as well -
The 2022 Astros no longer exist. No team in 2024 was close to a match to the 2022 Astros. There will likely not be a team in 2025 that would be better than any Astros team from 2017-2022 except 2020. The Astros pissed away 2023. Injuries got 2024 regarding WAR which does not bold well for the future, but make no mistake the Astros were a much better team at the end than their total WAR indicates. Granted, not banking wins early caused them to play a short series. If there is a great team in 2025, it will likely be in the NL.The Astros were 6 games back of the best record in the AL. The Astros either go for it in 2025 or they don't. I tend to be go for it crowd.
If you're going to tear it down because you're afraid you can't compete with the Yankees and the Orioles, then tear it down. Altuve, Yainer, Yordan... blow it up. I think that's a total misread on the situation in a weak AL West in particular and a weak AL in general, but that's fine. A half measured "step back" doesn't work. At least, not in the way it's being described here. Luckily, I don't think Crane operates like that. He might decide that certain players aren't worth retaining at asking price, but he's not throwing in the towel by trading away star talent.
A win is a win whether it comes from Kikuchi or Framber. If Houston can trade Framber and sign somebody like Kikuchi such that the net in 2025 is zero and the net from 2026 and beyond is positive, they should do that. That’s just taking advantage of being a team with an owner willing to use cash to buy wins (just doing it by trading for prospects instead of a pure free agency purchase) and other teams not having the resources to make long term commitments to expensive SP but still wanting to compete. I don’t consider that likely for the reasons everyone is talking about: it’s a complicated set of moves and it doesn’t fit Jim Crane’s MO. But it is something I hope the front office is at least exploring. Generally, I agree that contending in MLB is an all or nothing proposition, and if Houston trades one of their star players, they should trade every major leaguer with value outside of Altuve. But there is a universe where just trading Framber makes sense.
I'm as high on Kikuchi as anyone, but I don't think Framber and Kikuchi are interchangeable in terms of value. Framber is 2.5 years younger and has 15 career WAR to Kikuchi's 4.1. Framber was worth more WAR last season (4.5) than Kikuchi's entire career to date. I'd love to keep both, but Framber is the better pitcher in the short and long term. It's not close to a 2025 net of zero.
We’ll see. Kikuchi was extremely good as an Astro and I think he’ll be as good or better than Framber over the next 3 seasons. In 2024, Kikuchi was worth 3.5 fwar vs Framber’s 3.6.
fWar underrates pitchers who manage contact well, like Framber does, by generating a lot of ground balls. It also relies on FIP in terms of its calculation as opposed to actual results. Meaning that, for pitchers, bWar is based on actual results and fWar is based on projections. Fangraphs, for what it's worth, predicts Framber to be worth 3.7 and Kikuchi to be worth 2.9 next season. I guess we'll see. One of them at his best is a Cy Young candidate, the other is not.
I’m not sure your comments about FIP/fwar are accurate; it normalizes for fielding, which means that pitchers of all types with good defensive players behind them are penalized, and extreme ground ballers like Framber are likely penalized more, but I think it’s marginal, and the other side of that is that pitchers on poor defensive teams are rewarded; Framber would be a liability on team with bad infielders, and FIP reflects that appropriately. Also, Kikuchi’s top line numbers for his time in Houston (W/L, era, k/9, bb/9) were better than Framber’s.
I didn't think there was any chance either would be traded. It's just my opinion that letting both walk is catastrophic to 2026+ but I would be shocked if that's not what happens
But we're not talking about hypothetical teams - the question is, what is Framber's value to the Astros, given the anticipated defensive infield production. You're right, if the team infield defense turns (for instance, if Bregman is not retained or replaced with a good 3B), the value of an excellent ground ball pitcher like Framber is reduced. But I don't really want to see what happens if we run crappy defenders out there. And I wouldn't call the effect marginal if you're looking at the difference between fWar and bWar. Framber goes from 4.1 to 3.6. Yusei from 1.9 to 3.5. That either means Kikuchi was very unlucky with actual results vs. expected, his defense was terrible in Toronto, or there's a flaw in FIP in relationship to actual outcomes. But I'd agree that Kikuchi was better in almost every category in his limited time in Houston. Framber still pitches more innings/game and (of course) had fewer HR/9. But I think projecting Kikuchi for a 15-3 record, a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP is reading too much into the small sample size. He's good, but not THAT good. If you think he's that guy, the Astros should absolutely sign him for whatever it takes.
Catastrophic? Doubtful, if they keep both Framber and Tucker past the trade deadline, I would expect a Framber extension.
Doubtful they get a poor fielder at 3B in FA/Trade if they let Bregs walk. If they stay in house Dezenzo is a good fielding 3B. No Whitcomb at 3B.
Framber innings / era last three years 176 @ 2.91 198 @ 3.45 201 @ 2.82 Kikuchi best season and only season with an era under 4 was in 2023 167 @ 3.86 I'd like to have Kikuchi back, but Kikuchi does not = Framber As i've said many times, because of the two or three meltdowns each year (which are typically followed with outstanding performances) people just don't realize how consistently good Framber is
And regardless of what advanced stat one wants to use You can have a season of good results when the advanced stats say you shouldn't have, happens a lot But at this point, Framber is a stud regardless of what any advanced numbers might say.
I do too BUT I think too much has been made of "Dana's" work to extend all those players in Atlanta 1. Dana wasn't the GM. Yes, he was on the front office team, but he wasn't calling the shots 2. At the end of the day, while the GM is important in the process, signing guys to long term extensions is as much about ownerships view on those type of deals as it is the ability of the GM to negotiate Crane has shown he will ante up to extend guys before they are nearing free agency and the price tag is huge. I'd be very surprised if Framber was extended and i'd be absolutely shocked if Tucker was
None of this will happen, but i'd love to see it Sign Santander, 4 years, 85 million Sign Kikuchi, 3 years, 50 million Mets get: Tucker, Pressly, lower end prospect Astros get: Mark Vientos, Jett Williams Santander replaces Tucker in RF, he isn't the player Tucker is, but he is a consistent power bat that could hit middle of the order. Vientos replaces Bregman at 3B and again, nowhere near the player Alex is overall but a power bat with great potential. Williams more than likely ends up as an OF with plus athleticism and could be someone who contributes in 2025. Getting rid of Tucker and Pressly salaries allow for the signings of Santander and Kikuchi, which makes our potential starting staff as good as any in baseball
