I think the problem is that this is Jalens only path to success. If he's not going to be a high volume 3 point shooter, what is he going to be? He certainly is never going to be a player like Shai, averaging 30+ ppg only taking 4 threes per game. His midrange is much worse than his 3 point shooting. How effective can a guard be if his only move is getting into the paint? Especially on this years rockets, where teams are regularly putting 3 or even 4 defenders in the the paint?
I think it's more likely Jalen will be traded next season in a package for a star player than it is he will sign another contract here.
He got more opportunities to shoot because he was hot. If he was a more consistent shooter he'd probably get more offense ran through him. But he's bottom of the barrel in offensive efficiency so no one in their right mind is going to run more offense through him.
Getting better at playing through contact and drawing fouls, plus becoming a better, more-willing passer would be a possible path to success. But I agree he needs to get better as a shooter as well. I just don't think he needs to be working on this high of a volume when he's not an elite shooter. Should be more like 5 or 6 threes a game to keep opponents honest and space the floor, not 8 or 9. In fact, his best 3P% was still his rookie season when he took only 6.8 threes per game in 31.9mpg. I think part of this is him learning better recognition of when it's a good shot for him, that doesn't necessarily mean wide open, just when he's in balance and rhythm, and passing on the shot when it's no good.
He needs to play like Ja Morant. Relentlessly attacking the rim and putting guys in compromised positions and then drawing fouls
It will stay a weird contract for a while, because he is obviously not worth the 34-36 million a year right now but he can be...... And he has a player option at age 22......has not earned anything in the Playoffs to warrant it. He is a weird, chucker type of player.
I now understand why contracts fully based on Potential could turn sour in an instant. He obviously wants that money for his growing family and his born, unborn babies.....
Like, he doesn't have to be an amazing shooter, but if he can learn to recognize two or three bad of those shots he's taking as bad, and keep moving the ball or attacking the paint in those situations instead, it would go a long way toward correcting his efficiency issues.
I guess that’s where I’m going. Say we don’t have another March explosion and this Jalen in aggregate is what we see for the year. OK player/lower end starting SG nowhere close to all star level. $106 for 3 years is a lot for that. You are betting on upside but if that doesn’t happen until year 6 maybe you are getting one year of a $50mm player at $36 million before he opts out and I guess you have Bird rights. That’s probably negative trade value. I’d really like his deal if the third year were a team option instead of player.
What was SGA looking like at Jalen's age? I remember thinking "He's okay" but I personally never saw 30 a night from Shai when he was that young. Not saying Jalen will be that good, but it's hard to say definitively one way or the other.
Shai's age 22 season was 23.7 points / 5.9 assists / 4.7 rebounds on 62.3% true shooting. So not the kind of scoring volume he produces now, but still significantly better than what Jalen is showing (19.7 points / 2.7 assists / 5.0 rebounds on 51.6% true shooting as of right now). I've pretty much given up hope on Jalen as a #1 option kind of player at this point. I'll just be happy if he can turn himself into a high-end starter like Jamal Murray or De'Aaron Fox at this point. I think that's probably his realistic ceiling at this point. At least his defense has gotten a lot better, now he needs to continue to work on his decisionmaking on offense.
Sorry I guess I wasn't clear, I was referring to his shot diet. Not saying that I expect them to be identical players in terms of production. Shooting guards can be effective in different ways, Shai is a guy that eats inside the 3 point line. All I was trying to say is "if Jalen isn't going to shoot a lot of 3s, what is he going to do?" You've got to either be good at taking a lot of 3s, or be good at taking a lot of shots between the rim and the 3 point line. I don't think you can be a great SG if you're bad at both of those things.
Why do fans care that much about age .....what if SGA came into the league older than everybody at 20 or 21.....do you think people care about that and because he started out late? The fact is SGA started out to become an excellent player consistently at age 23 forward.....and that should be highlighted.
That 26/27 cap still bothers me. The cap is $170,112,000 Lets say that Bari & Tari get 20% instead of 25% ($34m in the first year, the 25% max is another $8.5m each putting them at ~$42.5m) FVV has come off the books and you renounce his $63m+ cap hold. (or maybe you have traded him already, in that case, you are instantly a 2nd apron team after paying Bari & Tari if you took back a dollar more than $25,412,587 on the 26/27 cap & you have no salary exceptions) You are at 187,290,691 with 7 players on the roster and the cap holds of Jabari & Tari along with the incomplete roster holds (5). After paying Tari & Bari a combined $68m (That's 20% not 25%) you are at $204,587,413 with the first apron at $215,541,000. You have 9 players on your roster with $10,953,587 between you and the first apron & $24,012,587 to the second apron. The MLE is $14,144,900 The BAE is $8,806,600 The league minimum is $2,461,462 Use either and you are capped at the 2nd apron which is $228,600,000. Use the full MLE on your 10th roster spot and add 4 minimum salary players and you are $21,839 below the second apron - with one open roster spot. Giving both Bari & Tari the 25% max instead of the 20% figure would put you $16,978,161 beyond (Over) the 2nd apron meaning you can't use the MLE leaving you $1,433,261 over the apron with two open roster spots and one incomplete roster charge and no replacement for FVV which is where the MLE would likely go. I guess you can clear all that up by ditching Brooks for no incoming salary, but you have your back against the wall again the following year (unless Jalen opts out) when Amen is due a payday.
I think there's a reasonable explanation for that - It's the way the perimeter defenders play him - going under picks and the big man dropping into the paint, pretty much daring Jalen or Sengun (or whoever the pick setter was) to take that shot. Generally, he's wide open by NBA standards. Teams are not going to change how they play Jalen until he starts making those at a higher rate. Really, what's he supposed to do in that situation other than take the open shot? There's no right answer because trying to drive into a crowded paint is a worse option than him shooting the open shot. Passing the ball after running into a crowded paint is difficult when as perimeter defenders stay home on the shooters leaving no passing lanes.
Bari is pretty redundant in this and you can get a 3 and rebounding guy who is probably not that tall but at 6'9 ish or taller around 15-16 million. His minutes is already going to Tari in the future......
