100% disagree with this, what do you classify as leading us to wins? Jalen has a game score over 20 only 2 games this season. We lost 1 and won 1. Every other game he's been average or terrible, I feel like any player on this team with Jalen's usage and shot attempts could do what he's doing. It's not hard to shoot 38% and average 19 points a game.... brooks on the other hand guards and shuts down the other teams best player and hits open threes. Without Brooks we probably lose 7 more games,
Sam Vecenie is gonna make a lot of JG stans super angry with his analysis tonight. What a madlad, I wouldn't touch that subject with a 10-foot pole.
Teams play us defensively based on what we are doing offensively, that's obvious. I don't get what you're trying to convince me here, that Ime does not draw up plays for Jalen? That these are all the possible plays we can run? That there is only one type of good shot in the NBA? You think defenses will do the same thing no matter what we run? Like if Giannis is going downhill or Curry is running off screens defenses just give up the same shot? That's not a reasonable position to take. Come on, this is so far out ridiculous. We are in control of our pace. We are in control of which players we start, thus in control of using more shooters or less shooters. We are in control of what the other 4 do while Green or anyone has the ball. You control how aggressive you want your players to be attacking the paint. You act like there aren't 29 other teams to learn from. Memphis is exactly as bad as us in terms of shooting (one of the worst in the NBA) and are a top 10 offense. We just witnessed the Bucks forcing us to put a guard on their stretch 5 (Lopez). I've heard it all before, go talk to a Celtics fan. Go study how the Celtics perimeter scorers struggled in the first half of the season when Ime acted like there couldn't possibly be better shots for them, until there were better shots for them a few months later.
Hahaha I'm not going to bother with this dude. Astrosrule is a consistent guy, he goes with the stats so I know I'm speaking to a person who is interested in intellectual discussion and not just letting his ego throw him around to any opinion. You are within the same post deciding stats are important for one and not for another. Go try this on people who don't watch Rockets games, we know what we watched to start the season.
Lol I've watched ever single game the rockets have played since we drafted Jalen. I have no idea what anyone sees in him. Doesn't play smart, can't shoot. I'm trying to figure out what you think he's doing that wins us games? The reason I went with game score for Jalen is because you said he won us games. What Brooks does for us doesn't show up in the box score. I never said he won us games I just think without him we lose. His plus minus is best on the team for a reason. Look at the last game. We started the game destroying the bucks, what happened? The refs decided to call some bogus fouls on Dillon put him in foul trouble and next thing you know we down 15. It's not a coincidence that this happens, he brings toughness and intensity that doesn't show up in stats. He frustrates the other teams best player night in and night out. Memphis hasn't been the same since he left and they were the 2 seed. He doesn't win us the games cuz his usage on offense is to low. But man if he got every shot Jalen did there is no way he could be worse than 38%... So tell me which games did Jalen win us? He's been terrible since the 5th game of the season. And we started 2-3 so you want to give him credit for 2 wins? Every game after the 5th game where he was just average we won by 20 plus points so can't really say he won it for us.
Honestly, I know you watch games and don't get things. There are many successful stars who a large group didn't see becoming a star. It's a natural phenomenon. I've seen how you respond to data bro, so please don't ask to provide data as though it would matter. You use a different stat for each player - whichever stat suits your narrative. If you wanna be the stats dude, be like astrosrule, have a consistent approach. Then we can START the debate.
You can't just use stats because it's not comparing apples to apples. Players have different roles on the team how do you not understand that, brooks plays his role well. Jalen is actually pretty bad at his role, Your just dodging the question. Which games did Jalen win? Its be like trying to use stats to compare James harden to Trevor Ariza. But we know what happens when we lose Ariza, team basically fell apart. We drafted JG to be our next harden only problem is he is no where near the player Harden was and won't ever get close.
Rockets team ranked by “EPM” so far this season https://dunksandthrees.com/epm 1: FVV 2: Sengun 3: Amen 4: Tari 5: Brooks 6: Landale 7: Adams 8: Cam 9: Holiday 10: Jalen 11: Jabari
I can't figure out exactly what these guys have done with their stat but they have ruined it. I read through the explanation and I don't get it. But they have Embiid #4 in EPM for "this season". So whatever they've done, it is very clearly not a "this season" stat, despite them telling you it is.
Game Theory with Sam Vecenie on Jalen (you have to skip to where it starts) He basically says Jalen has bad decision making. And he makes very good points. Jalen takes bad shots when there's a lot of time left on the clock and he's covered. He tries to score on Lopez and/or Giannis when they are set and ready for him. Parts of the later videos look like Jalen just doesn't want to pass to open teammates and would rather take (and miss) a difficult shot. Jalen can get to the rim but doesn't know when that is appropriate. To me he loves the stepback and sucks at it. "Wait till midseason to make a decision" on his shooting and if he's made it. (I've heard that for three years now.)
Yeah past performance is definetly propping him up. They also took away their wins added metric based on epm. Guessing it’s behind their paywall.
Right, I read that too, but what does that mean exactly? It says we're getting player impact "for the given date" (this season), but also, "include data from the player's entire proceeding career", which is a bit of a contradiction? If you want to avoid starting completely fresh each season, alright fine, you can do that. But if you are weighing previous seasons SO heavily that Joel Embiid is currently your 4th best performing player in the 2024-25 nba season, then your stat is worthless. It makes it completely meaningless.
These issues existed even during his best stretches. Jalen's issue is that he's best used as a pure SG role where he doesn't need to make a lot of tough decisions, and his shooting is good enough that his ability to create makes him valuable as a pure scorer. If we're going by the championship Pistons team that some have compared this core to, Jalen can play the Rip Hamilton role. Problem is he's not as good a shooter as Hamilton (relative to the league in their respective eras).
Reading through the more in depth explanation of the stat I think the disparity in what’s happened so far this season has do with this part : Yes, Embiid has been awful this season in 3 games he has played, but based on the numbers(past and present) they are “predicting” him to still be elite.
I think you want an evaluation of the current season, whereas this is a metric that is meant to predict future performance. So 'for the given date' does not mean what impact the player had, but rather what impact the player is expected to have. In doing that, they have several components, among which two are overall past performance and recent performance, where probably overall past performance has a (much) higher weight, for the players with a longer/established career, who has not started to fall down. That's why Embiid is expected to perform well, as well as 4th best among all players but not currently the 4th best performing player in the current season though. It doesn't say anything about past performance.
Thanks, I didn't see this part, that certainly explains it but doesn't change my opinion of the stat at all. I still think they ruined it. If it's predicting how good you're going to be based on how good you have been...it's not much of a "this season" stat at all. That's just not what I'm interested in seeing. EDIT: to bring it back to the original post, they have FVV as our top player "this season" by quite a bit. That's just so obviously wrong. Any stat that says Fred has been our highest impact player for "this season" is either completely broken/bugged, or it's not a "this season" stat at all.
I do see the value in what they have now but I agree I’d like something that was more heavily favored to or even exclusive to the current season.
Generally I find the impact metrics almost useless, in comparing players or evaluating performance. By nature, they have to be comparing with some base numbers, which are either when the player does not play, or league average. But can't control for the factors like opponent team's five, or even the player's teammate. You hardly get any data where you replace only one player from a 5, and see the difference. and even then that is not very meaningful because players need different styles to succeed. That 5 doing not well may not be because the player is bad, but simply it is not a well constructed 5. Similar problems with offensive/defensive ratings. They can be used to make statements about the 5s like 'Sengun can be part of a good defensive 5' but cannot be used to justify 'Sengun is a good defender'. For that you need individual metrics and eye-test. So, my way of looking at it, is always evaluating 5 players and comparing with 5 players, along with individual stats.
Yeah, Jalen isn't a complete bum, but he's not going to be a superstar level player. I don't even think he's ever going to make an allstar team. I see him as a slight tier below guys like Lavine and McCollum. He's more like a Jordan Clarkson level player.
