2024 Hypothetical Astros Trades Thread

The comp pick is essentially a crap roll.

Alex Santos is the comp pick the Astros got for Gerritt Cole leaving. He has been a non-prospect for 4 years and now balls out in the AFL before the Astros need to make a 40 man decision (Whitley balled out twice in the AFL).

And when they picked him, it was at the end of rd 2. Because they are above the CBT, this pick would be after 4th rd.

A Corbin Burnes-lite trade return is much more attractive.

And while you are asking if I am "sure", are you sure that the 2025 rotation will absolutely he worse without Framber?

Framber could get hurt.
Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Garcia, and McCullers could all have All Star type seasons, and Javier could return like LMJ in 2022.

Maybe not Lance, but the rest could happen.

 

Comp pick is a crap shoot but so are these hypothetical prospects. Did trading away Oswalt for Happ, Villar and Wallace result in any real benefit for the Astros?

 

But the Brewers traded away Burnes and still won their division.

They got a starting 3b with 6 years of control who had a 2.6 WAR rookie season and a SP prospect who sat at the bottom of the top 100 lists and also had 6 years of control.

Ortiz has almost already made that trade a win in 1 season regardless if Hall ever gives them anything.

 

The Burnes trade worked out, but many like the Oswalt one do not. It’s all pretty random. Johan Santana was a Rule 5 pick but you shouldn’t expect that level of production from most Rule 5 guys…

 

I do not think the Astros will trade Framber, but you haven't said anything to convince me they shouldn't

Every starting pitcher is an injury risk. There is probably a 20% chance Framber has an injury riddled season worth anywhere from 0-2 WAR, and an 80% chance he make 25+ starts and finishes with 3-5 WAR (4.5 is his career best)

Lets say, for argument that he has a 5 WAR season for $22M in excess value.

Then It comes down to the GM and scouting. What mind of a return makes it worth trading away 1 season if a 5 WAR pitcher making about $18M.

Will Brown bring in a prospect or 2 that will be productive MLB players? Can the scouting be trusted? I absolutely trust them to find pitchers. I'm not sure about position players.

If the Astros trade away Framber for 2 prospects, that's 12 seasons of control, 6 of them being pre-arbitration. If either of them has a Jake Meyers or Jose Urquidy type first 3 seasons then the Astros win the trade.

Pick the right players.

 

Ugh. They don’t have a healthy starting 5 yet. Can we please stop talking about trading the ace of the staff?

 

Players aren’t just a WAR statistic walking around. Framber eats innings in addition to being an ace. That saves the bullpen for every other day of the week where the collection of young 5 and 6 inning guys tax the pen. He fills a vital role that nobody else on the roster is gonna fill.

If you think trading away the staff ace and workhorse for a couple of Meyers, Urquidy type back of the roster players is a win, then I don’t know what to tell you. But 99% of baseball fans and baseball front office folks would disagree.

 

...but maybe they should be?

War vs War?

 

trading Framber only makes sense if you bring in Kikuchi or someone of that durability and potential quality. If not, trading Framber could cost us the division. The man is a tank, one of the best combinations of durability and quality in the league. He is not reliable for the post season. (I think the pitch clock is a big disadvantage for someone like him.). But he is an enormous factor to getting to the post season.

 

I understand all this.

But if this team is going to improve SOMETHING must change.

There is a zero % chance that both Framber and Tucker return in 2026.

There is probably a less than 20% chance that either of them do.

If you let them walk then this team's window is closed. They are at best, the 3rd best team in the AL West heading into 2026.

Tucker simply can't be traded because there is 0% chance you replace his production and the team is already weak at position players/run production.

Theoretically:
Brown can replace Framber
Arrighetti can replace Brown
Blanco can be Blanco
Garcia can replace Arrighetti

Bring in another SP by signing a veteran to a 3-4yr $15-$20M AAV deal or from the Framber return. Kikuchi is my choice (4yr/$68M or 3yr/$57M+ $10yr player option w/$5yr buyout to win bidding) but there are several options.

Gusto, Blubaugh, Gordon, France, and/or McCullers round out the rotation until Javier or trade deadline reinforcements arrive if needed.

Framber's innings may be too much to make up, but I think it's worth the risk to add potential and depth to 2026 - 2030

I would hope he brings back 2 semi- established players who were/are 45 or better prospects w/ 4-6 yrs control remaining and maybe a lottery pick type prospect.

Maybe:
NYM - Brett Baty, LuisAngel Acuna, and Dom Hamel?

 

All those percentages are just your beliefs. You can’t predict the future like that. I can’t change your preconceptions but maybe you’ll agree with this: if the team is doomed without Tucker/Framber in 2026, a couple of Jake Meyers level guys aren’t going to change that.

Compete in the Altuve window. Rebuild when the window closes. Flags fly forever.

 

Yes they are my beliefs.

The problem with your point is that the "Altuve window" is through 2029 but you are talking about sacrificing 2026-2029 to compete in 2025.

I am talking about gambling that other players can equal Framber to compete in 2025 after making a move to improve 2026-2030.

If you are going to make a mistake, make it a mistake of aggression and not a mistake of omission.

 

But I'm not talking about a couple of Jake Meyers level guys.

Jake was never considered a top prospect and never appeared on any lists.

I'm talking about players who scouts say have the tools and potential to be regular starters in MLB.

 

I'm not of the belief that if you trade or let Tucker/Framber means the end of the dynasty. Depends on who replaces them. In 2026 Abreu/Montero/Framber/Tucker will be off of the books. They will have plenty of money available to replace these guys. Plus by then guys like Matthews/Baez/Melton/Gomez etc... should be ready to contribute to the MLB team.

 

Ryan Pressly for Mike Yastrzemski.

Astros may need to pay $2-4M or throw in a lottery ticket type prospect, but it fills a hole without adding salary.

 

No, I’m not talking about sacrificing those years. I don’t share your pessimistic view of the future if we try to compete in 2025. I don’t share you belief that Framber is gone. I think we can keep our best players now and then find adequate replacements if they leave. I don’t think your suggestion comes from aggression, I think it comes from a place of negativity, and fear.

And Meyers was your suggestion, along with Urquidy, as the sort of production we could hope for from these theoretical prospects. I think we can always find those sort of guys - cheap, club controlled, mid. We lack high end prospects but we have plenty of guys in the minors who can be replacement+ level dudes. We produce those every year.

 

I like your view better than my own.

 

This is how I see things too.

If Dana can sign/trade for 2-3 guys under contract for multiple years and they spend the money saved by letting Framber/Tucker go well this era of excellence will continue. It also wouldn't hurt if Matthews/Melton/Baez/Janek turnout to be star level players in 3 years.

 

What a "meh"

He solves no problems...that swap actually makes the team worse.