Why all this panic about Green? He’s started all hot, cooled off a bit, and is now figuring it out again. He’s defense has been solid and his on off is really good. He’s clearly very important to the team. I really don’t get it.
I’m only concerned that he’s not shooting well or getting to the line, which is what we really need to see from him. After an admittedly strong start, in his last 5 games Jalen is shooting 37% from the field. He’s averaging around 3.5 free throws per game. And he’s shooting 25% from 3. This follows a pattern throughout the last 3 years. He continues to be wildly inconsistent and overall, very inefficient. His shooting has never been reliable and that continues to be the case. I’m glad he’s playing better defense, but we are paying him to make shots and get to the line. If he’s not doing that we are locked into a bad contract.
Meh, I don’t agree at all. 30ish mil a year is not much at all for a player who averages 20+ ppg, plays solid defense, and will occasionally take over games. In 2026 - when we have a better picture about Green, Eason, and Amen - his contract will be peanuts compared to the cap.
I believe it averages over $35 mil a year. I’ll acknowledge that the contract is probably only a $10 mil per yr overpay. It’s not the end of the world but it was also unnecessary.
Hence 30ish. 33 mil this year, 36 mil next season and the one after that. He'll make up less than 20% of our cap going forward, and we'll be operating over the cap anyway. By the way, if you let Green hit FA, I bet he gets way more than you may think. The good thing about his contract is, in the 2026 offseason, we'll have a good idea of what we need to pay Eason and Amen, and we can negotiate with Green based on that.
I would have rather traded him and recouped value than overpay him on an extension. Look at what OKC did with Giddy last year. Jalen would have likely fetched more than the return OKC got for Giddy. The choices weren’t overpay him now or overpay him in free agency.
Giddey and Green aren't comparable, and there's not way I'm trading Green for the return they got for Giddey. I just think I'm much higher than you on Green. I think he's squarely part of our core, along with likely Sengun, Eason, and Amen. That grouping fits really well together, especially if you add in a great shooter like Reed. To me, with his improvements on defense, Green's floor has risen to a two-way #2 or #3 offensive option on a very good team. He is a very, very valuable prospect I want to keep.
If he doesn't get back to shooting like he was and getting to the line more frequently, then yes, I don't think he becomes an All Star, obviously. But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable piece who can be part of the core of a championship team. Jamal Murray averages about 20 ppg on .36 shooting from 3 and can occasionally dominate as needed. That's the most likely mold I see for Jalen. His defensive improvements have really raised the floor for him in my eyes. If he's an above average defender, then I can deal with some offense streakiness, because, at the end of the day, players like that demand a lot of defensive attention even when they are cold, because they could blow up at any point.
but let’s just acknowledge that Jalen has never shot more than 34% (his rookie yr) and has shot 33% the last two seasons. So 36% is a big jump. Hey, I hope we see that. And if he’s shooting like Murray he’s worth the contract no doubt. Guess we’ll see what things look like at the Allstar break.
Definitely afraid Jalen might end up being in that Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Kuzma category of guys who never figure out how to consistently shoot efficiently. Some guys get better over time and some never really improve. So far he hasn't shown any pattern of improvement on his shooting. The problem is that at 33-34% you can't really have him on the floor 30+ mpg even if he's a solid defensive player now. His best role in that case is 6th man. But, one, who do you replace him with in the starting lineup (Amen maybe but then Alpi needs to shoot better), and two, would he even accept the change in role?
Jalen playing consistent defense already means he's shown significant improvement at 22. It's hard to criticize him for the 3% (especially given his increased volume this season) while giving every other member of the starting lineup a pass for the same thing. He's the 3rd best 3 point shooter on the team after Eason and Sheppard, and those guys between them shoot half as many as Jalen does.
Not giving anyone a pass... the shooting woes this season have been pretty bad. However, I will say that it's been only 11 games and some of the other players have stronger track records of shooting better in the past, and I expect them to get back to their usual form. Green does not have any track record of shooting three pointers efficiently. My thing with him has always been "Will he shoot 36%". If he clears that mark, I think he is a very good player, maybe an all-star (at least once or twice). If he does not he's in the same no man's land as a guy like Clarkson, not quite good enough to start, but too good to just be a backup SG.
36% vs 34% seems like a pretty arbitrary line to draw. One more made three by Jalen through 11 games would have him at 36%. And give him room to grow. He's the same age that Clarkson was in his rookie season.
He just can't increase the efficiency. Thankfully, the "bad" games this year are a helluva lot better than his bad games last year (so far). Hopefully a hot streak is coming soon.
One thing I don’t think people are talking enough about is how clutch Green has been this season. 4th in clutch points despite being only 21st in clutch minutes.
Would like to see the source for that data. The only player on the Rockets playing meaningful minutes in the fourth quarter with a worse net rating in the fourth quarter than Jalen this season is Jabari (they are both the only ones with a negative net rating in the 4th quarter - Alpi has the 3rd worst net rating in the 4th quarter). All small sample size, of course. If you exclude garbage time (which is when Cam, Jock, Aaron, Reed would have gotten their minutes), it looks like Tari, Amen, Dillon were the ones mostly carrying us in 4th quarters.
Last night again the wizards would’ve been an efficient game if he hit one more 3 and go 2 of 6 instead 1 of 6. He would’ve shot 7-15 overall for 45%.
