If they sign Soto, they are trading Tucker, Framber and one of Pressly/Hader. Soto is a gamechanger in reseting the window because he's only 25. You get 2-3 MLB ready players in the deals for Tucker and Framber and your window is now another 6+ years.
That makes sense, but I think they are keeping Tucker until at least the deadline regardless of who they sign.
Soto would definitely add some much needed personality and juice to this team. Not to mention he’s a top 5 player. Not holding my breath though.
The logic behind Houston signing Soto would be that he is essentially providing 2 good players’ worth of production. So if Houston signed Soto, they could stand pat with the rest of their roster and still easily be among the top 3 teams in the AL. There’s a valid argument behind consolidating value into as few players as possible because of the scarcity of those elite players and the roster flexibility it creates, but I am not a fan of that strategy for non LA/NY teams because it ties so much value into just a few players and dramatically increases the impact of an injury to one of them. But if Houston trades Pressly, Caratini, and McCormick, they can probably afford to pay Soto $50M/yr for 10yrs, although im not sure that’s enough to sign him.
Agreed on all points. And if Jim Crane offered 12 yrs / $600M then one (or more) of the LA or NY teams go 14 yrs/ $700M If Jim Crane goes 14 yrs/ $700M one (or more) of the LA or NY teams go 15 yrs / $750M. If a player truly is prioritizing money and security over other factors, free agency makes MLB an uneven playing field with no salary cap.
If any of the 4 teams outside if LA or NY want to keep their truly special talent (the top 1-3%/top 5-20 players in all of MLB) the only way to do that is identify them and sign them to a big enough extension early; after they are proven but before they have enough money to be comfortable waiting for FA. I feel the Alvarez extension was perfect.
The injury risk thing really depends on the player. Soto, at 25, is not nearly the injury / decline risk that signing an older player contains. Especially for position players. We signed an expensive RP the past two offseasons when pitchers generally and RP in particular are volatile and injury prone. We signed a late 30s 1B who immediately declined. I'd posit that Soto is more likely to produce relative to his contract than those type of signings, especially in the short term. He's probably still improving in the next couple of seasons. and he was already a 7.4 WAR guy last year. Again this is all fun in theory, it seems much more likely that he stays with one of the two NY teams on a giant contract. But imo a Soto signing could be worth it for the logic you provide. You can get by with some guys like Meyers next season in the lineup with a force like that out there.
Despite being one of the true best talents in the game, a beast at the plate in terms of pitch recognition and making pitchers work, and undoubtedly he seems to make every team "better" when he goes there.... it is amazing that he will soon be on his 4th team before age 25-26. Granted, most of that his own doing based on not wanting to sign any extensions with his original team or the two other teams that have traded for him. Even A-Rod only played for 3 teams... and he was of the similar scenario in that he wanted to be on a contender, but was only truly affordable by a small subset of teams.
Fantasizing: Against RHP: 2B Altuve LF Soto DH Alvarez C Diaz RF Tucker 1B Singleton 3B Whitcomb CF Trammell SS Pena Against LHP: 2B Altuve LF Soto DH Alvarez SS Pena RF Tucker C Diaz CF Meyers 1B Dezenzo 3B Whitcomb
And he took two sad sack franchises to the World Series, winning one. And I doubt he’s actually ruled out his current club.
