Here’s an excerpt from Chandler Rome in his latest athletic article Are other trades in the offing? That Pressly is being dangled in trade talks prompts wonder whether either Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker could join him. Both players are projected to make more than $15 million in their final year of arbitration eligibility and nothing Brown said on Tuesday made it seem like Houston is hellbent on extending either. “I don’t think we’re going to be in the business of giving multiple seven-year deals or multiple eight-year deals, but if there’s an opportunity to sign a guy that we feel is going to be good for six or seven years, I think (owner Jim Crane) would do it,” Brown said. Tucker, who will turn 28 in January, will command the exact sort of deal Crane swears off. Making either him or Valdez available would elicit the sort of return Houston needs to replenish its farm system. Pressly’s salary, age and suspect 2024 will not yield anywhere near the same prospect haul. Perception is important, though. Trading either Valdez or Tucker could signal that Houston is headed for a rebuild. Whether Crane could handle that is a question one league source raised this week. This is the same owner who has famously boasted the team’s championship window will never close under his watch. Dealing either Valdez or Tucker should not prevent the Astros from contending in 2025, though it would make the task more difficult.
Chandler has the exact wrong point if view on this Not bringing back Bregman, signing short term stop gap veterans or letting less than premium prospects take over, and then letting Framber and Tucker walk is exactly what's going to close the window. The type of return either of those guys would yield is exactly what allows the window to remain open. Maybe 2025 is a down one ( like 2023 and 2024) but there is still enough talent to challenge for the division and 2026 would be a damn sight better
Basically i see a few main approaches to filling the necessary voids. They might need to salary dump Pressly to make it happen. Resign Bregman, sign Walker- run it back with a few other smaller tweaks. Resign Bregman or sign Walker, re sign Kikuchi, trade Framber to address other offensive holes. The least appealing option IMO, trade Framber to address a hole, resign Kikuchi and hope for a bounceback from Chaz or prospect breakout while making a bunch of smaller/platoon signings to mitigate the holes without major offensive signing. It's hard for me to see a scenario in which we trade Tucker and improve the team this season, but maybe they can swing some kind of 2 for 1 trade to get lesser but team controlled players. Tucker may have a history of failing in October, but we no longer have the luxury of "just" planning for october, we have to get there first.
I think Goldschmidt is much more likely than Walker. He doesn't have a loss of draft pick attached to signing him and will be a much lesser commitment. If they can sign Goldschmidt and Bregman and bring in a regular starter in either LF or CF then the team should be better than 2024. I would love for them to resign Kikuchi but the only way the money is there is if they make calls trade. Tucker makes no sense for 2025, but all the sense in the world Long term. Framber is who I would trade, but only if the team gets a real MLB starter in return ( not a prospect or reclamation). He doesn't need to be a TOR, but also not a question mark. If Framber brings back 2 young vontrollablebpueces - a starting OF and MOR-BOR SP and maybe a lottery ticket prospect then trade him. If not, then trading Pressly and Caratini is the only way they can afford Kikuchi.
If the Astros "fill" 1B with 37 year old coming off the worst season of his career they deserve what happens. Maybe they can pair him as the platoon partner with Singleton, but even that's risky given his age and Singletons lack of track record/awful defense. As long as they make other significant additions you may be able to get away with it, but I haven't seen many other "significant" players on the market. Even Robert has a sketchy track record.
The poor man’s offseason: Goldschmidt, Heaney, Conforto, Urshela; trade away Caratini, McCormick, and Pressly 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez C Diaz 1B Goldschmidt LF Conforto SS Pena 3B Urshela CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Singleton, Trammell Rotation: Framber, Brown, Blanco, Heaney, Garcia, Arrighetti Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Scott, Ort, Dubin, Whitley, McCullers/Montero Thats probably a 87 win team with more upside than downside.
I agree that Goldschmidt is a risk, but on a 1 year deal at a salary $15M or less I think it's worth it. I would definitely plan on giving him 1-2 days off per week. It could be Singleton or maybe Whitcomb. Play the matchup game. But he had a 116 wRC+ after July 1st and 120 wRC+ in the 2nd half. Worth the risk on a 1 yr deal.
That's sounds an awful lot like our reasoning for being optimistic about Abreu heading into last season.
Yikes. Goldy and his .716 OPS hitting 5th. I like Conforto. Urshela is as bad as Meyers with the bat. That lineup is worse than what we ran out these this year.
I'd try to swing a trade for Andrew Vaughn. Former top ranked prospect..hasn't put it together for the White Sox. I'd take my chances on him putting it together, and, if not, he's a good bat against lefties at least.
Would carry some risk for sure. The lineup would likely be the best in the league against lefties, but unless Goldy really came back to life or another lesser hitter had a big breakout against righties, it would be a very average lineup against righties.
Don’t know if any of these guys have legit MLB talent- but for the sake of them being Cubans they are #AstroWatch status
If they traded Pressly, Caratini, Tucker maybe they could do something like this. Sign Walker, Bregs, Comforto, trade for Robert. Get a legitimate MLB ready prospect in the Tucker trade. Altuve 2B Alvarez DH Walker 1B Diaz Bregs 3B Robert CF Conforto RF Prospect LF, Whitcomb Pena SS Bench Dubon, Dezenzo, Gamel, backup C. Framber, Brown Blanco Arrighetti Garcia Hader Abreu Scott Whitley Ort King Cheap FA signing like Scott The milb should be better too because of the haul you get for Tucker.
Unlike Springer and Correa who seemed to have a career year within a season or two of leaving, Tucker is coming off an injury plagued season and lackluster playoff performance. Also, right fielders are easier to replace defensively than up the middle players. There is a case to trade Tucker and I believe the Astros see it. Brown is a different GM than previous and may very well push for it (whatever that'd be worth) especially if Bregman is re-signed (which would save face for the Astros in showing they do take care of their players within reason).
Dana Brown has stated that Alex Bregman is their biggest priority this off season. Unlike much of what Brown says, this makes sense and is most likely true. I'm sure the preference is to bring him back, but the priority is probably to know whether they need to go a different direction to fill 3b or check it off the list. My interpretation of Brown saying they are willing to go over 6 years for the right player, in the right situation, is code to Boras that they will go 7 yrs if there is a 7 yr offer somewhere else. I'm optimistic. But it's obvious that the Astros are not going to make any major moves until Alex is off the board. That will determine exactly what money they have left for all the other holes, as well as if 3B is still one of those holes. I don't see any scenario, short of a major trade coupled with little spending, where they are not above the 1st CBT. The differences between the 1st and 2nd CBT are minimal, so there's no reason to not spend up to $280M (except that it's money, lol) Estimated $7M below 1st CBT right now. Bregman signs @$27M AAV. That puts them right at 2nd CBT so less than $20M to spend before the real penalties start Trade Pressly and Caratini to save $20M Save $5M for trade deadline. Just under $35M remaining. Areas to improve: 1b: currently Singleton-Dezenzo/Whitcomb. LF: currently McCormick CF: currently Trammel-Meyers SP depth: currently McCullers, France, Gusto
I think Bregman is their top priority…for now. I think they made what they consider their best and final offer, and they’re giving Bregman some time to shop it around before they move on. I suspect if Bregman doesn’t sign by the end of the month, Houston will move on. That puts Bregman in a bit of a pickle because I think his market is significantly impacted by what happens with Soto. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boras is telling him to wait it out, since he represents both clients; he’s focused on getting Soto his $600M now, then he’ll circle back to all the teams who missed out and try to get Bregman his $200M. However, there’s also logic that it serves Boras to have Bregman re-sign with Houston, as that will take a backup plan off the table from all of Soto’s suitors and potentially make them more aggressive. I said awhile back that I think the best realistic offer Houston might make to lock Bregman up is a 6 year deal with a vesting 7th year option, and I still think that’s the case. $156M/6yrs plus a $24M vesting player option gets him $180M potential. An additional sweetener might be to front load the first year and give him an opt out. Should be an interesting few weeks. I definitely think Houston’s plan is to try to sign Bregman then pivot to Walker if it doesn’t work out. I’m trying not to read too much into a cash considerations trade but the Trammell deal makes me think their OF is set and they’ll use him to platoon with whichever of Meyers or McCormick is struggling more against RHP; it’s actually a plan I really like, provided they upgrade at both 3B and 1B. I would be totally ok with these “everyday” lineups to start 2025: Against LHP: 2B Altuve (excellent) SS Pena (excellent) DH Alvarez (excellent) RF Tucker (excellent) 3B (Bregman) (very good) LF McCormick (excellent, with risk) C Diaz (very good) CF Meyers (good) 1B Dezenzo (below average with upside) Against RHP: 2B Altuve (excellent) RF Tucker (excellent) DH Alvarez (excellent) 3B (Bregman) (very good) C Diaz (very good) 1B Singleton (above average) LF Trammell (average) SS Pena (below average) CF McCormick/Meyers (below average, with risk)
I like everything you said, except that they made their best and final offer for Bregman first. I believe they offered 6/$156 and I think it was a "We are forced to offer something, Chapman's deal is the floor, but we don't want to overdid vs ourselves " type offer. I think they fully expect to eventually get to 7 yrs and nearly $200M ($180M+) and will.
Say they have 34 mil remaining, if they trade Chas and Meyers or let them walk in arb that should give them another 8 mil or so, so they've got 42 mil to play with 21 mil for 3 years for Walker with most of the money in years 2-3 after Abreu, LMJ come off of the books. 15 mil for Robert, 7 mil for Conforto or Torres. They could also trade Tucker, bring back Kikuchi and get a MLB ready prospect in RF plus other top notch prospects to further strengthen the farm I'm not sure which way I would go. But Dana does have options. Trading Tucker should bring back quite a haul.
