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[Predictions 2024] 5 day home stretch

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Space Ghost, Nov 1, 2024.

  1. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    As noted when I voted in MN did have to provide an MN ID number. They checked this off on the state voter database before giving me a ballot. This might be an extra step for early voting but to register to vote in Mn you need to provide proof of residency.
     
  2. AroundTheWorld

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    Do you notice something about the states where cheating is easily possible?

    Do you notice a weird overlap between the two maps?
     
  3. adoo

    adoo Member

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    it’s above your head !
     
  4. basso

    basso Member
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  5. AroundTheWorld

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  6. CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul

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    This is above your head.
     
  7. CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul

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    Never fear. Trump got PA. He has nearly pay for it with his life. He got this!
     
  8. adoo

    adoo Member

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  9. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    Selzer/DMR poll for Iowa just came out. She has Harris up 3 (47-44) in Iowa of all places. It's just a poll but her polls are the most golden of the gold standard polls. This actually has been tracking for a while as Selzer did 3 polls this year and Harris has steadily improved from the original poll to now.



    For context, here are the last few Seltzer polls vs the actual election. The only miss was 2018. I personally don't think Harris is winning Iowa but if she's polling this well then Wisconsin looks a lot safer and there are big opportunities to pick up Congressional districts in Iowa and Wisconsin. This also tracks with the Trump +5 Kansas poll and the Trump +3 Ohio poll. Trump seems to be losing steam in the Midwest towards the end here. If I'm the Trump campaign, this is a five alarm fire. This was the same poll that basically forecasted Clinton's collapse in the Midwest in 2016 (and Biden's narrower win in the Midwest in 2020). Lastly, the big takeaway is the gender gap. Harris is holding steady with Biden's numbers among men but women are breaking heavily to Harris at the end. The gender gap is absolutely massive and so far in EV women are outvoting men by a reasonable clip.

     
    #49 geeimsobored, Nov 2, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2024
    Agent94 and Rileydog like this.
  10. basso

    basso Member
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    i don't believe it.
     
  11. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    Let me just say that I was telling myself that in 2016 when Selzer dropped the Trump +9 poll a few days before that election. This isn't to say Harris is winning Iowa (I think Trump will end up winning) but you can see a very clear trend line among polls in the Midwest. Trump's win in 2016 was visible in the polls in hindsight. The polls in the Midwest all started trending his direction in October and it culminated in the Selzer poll that year which basically blew up the idea that Clinton had the Midwest locked up.

    All I'm saying is that the Trump folks should be freaking out right now. I was expecting this poll to be Trump +5 or something like that (which still would've been a really good result for Harris). But for Harris to actually be winning is an absolute catastrophe.
     
  12. basso

    basso Member
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    who can say?

     
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  13. basso

    basso Member
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    Harris is not winning Iowa.
     
  14. CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul

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    Still clinging to Russia Russia Russia? Gotta come up with something more creativity than that. That’s all you got though.
     
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  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    • The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
     
  16. CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul

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    The misinformation war is in full swing. We will know by next week who is really full of shiit?
     
    Space Ghost likes this.
  17. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    The problem with the polling -
    One minute, Biden is stomping Trump.
    Next minute, Biden's career is over.
    One minute, Harris is soundly beating Trump.
    Then over night, Trump is soundly beating Harris.
    Now over night, Harris is "neck and neck".

    Bottom line, polls have not been consistent.

    Its all propaganda.
     
  18. CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul

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    Psyop.
     
  19. davidio840

    davidio840 Member

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    At least you’re honest with yourself. Not everyone chooses to ride that short bus, but glad you rode it with pride!
     
  20. basso

    basso Member
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