5 days left. Its been entertaining. Many will weep. Others will rejoice. But nobody is leaving the country. Post your predictions. Any prediction. Betting markets are tightening in the Presidential race and the markets are widening in the popular vote. Hold all insults and shaming until after the election. EC prediction: Trump - 312 Harris 226 Popular: Harris +1.6% Republicans will take House, Senate and Presidency. Senate: (51D-49R current) 46D-54R House: (220R-212D current) 221R-213D Biden will lose his ****.
Dont know, but Trump suddenly dropping a lot on Polymarket...wondering what that is all about. Reminds me of Bari/Paolo.
Trump has dropped some seriously bad quotes the past few days. IMO, even worse than saying that he will do things for women whether they like it or not is saying they should shoot a neocon scion in the face; those guys already don't like him and have a tremendous amount of power. FAFO.
i see the bombastic extremist trump performing worse than he did in 2000, losing to the younger / more stable Kamala in 2020, Trump was 4 year younger, at age 74 Arch Republicans, such as Liz Cheney, stilll voted for Trump Trump had no criminal charges against him in 2024 Trump is 78-yr old, showing signs of Senility / dementia / losing motor control in public there are GOP groups organized to defeat Trump Republicans for Harris Lincoln Project there are military generals and former Trump cabinet members publicizing that they would vote forharris Trump has been indicted as a criminal on 34 counts
My guess is that because he is preemptively making excuses about cheating in PA, people see it as a sign of inevitable loss. But who knows? It is a 50/50 chance like it has always been.
My predictions haven't changed from early September based on what was happening then: Trump wins the EV (over 300) and the PV (51-52%).
You mean when Bucks County, PA was actually caught cheating (as ruled in court)? That's a lot of Trump support in a swing state. You worried?
Maybe you need to learn what "caught cheating" means. The court ordered them to extend voting. Tell me who was caught for cheating. What crime were they convicted of? What was their punishment?
I’m still cautiously optimistic Harris wins. I’m far more optimistic that she wins the overall popular vote but think the swing states will be very close. I think the Democrats take the House but lose the Senate as they will lose WV and MT. they could possibly lose OH too and WI has tightened up.
I also predict we won’t know for certain who won for days possibly weeks and the post election time will be turbulent.
Bucks County had to be ordered by the court to extend voting because they didn’t follow the rules, which is exactly the kind of stuff Trump points to when he talks about cheating. Call it what you want, but when election rules aren’t followed, it’s a problem that affects trust in the results. It really is easy to tell who’s thinking critically and who’s just going along with the flow.
Polymarket is interesting. On one hand, it's a winner takes all. And in top of that, there is a derivatives market. And further, for many of these markets, the market is often very highly unpredictable when they end. In other words, if liquidity is low, these markets can bounce around wildly over time. If anyone wants to use Polymarket as an indicator, all markets need to be taken in account. If most markets are heading in the same direction, that is a good indicator. Some of these markets will be trading 2 or 3 days after and people will try to arbitrage the chaos.
Prediction:Trump will rant about stupid ****. His latest is Kamala will prevent buildings from having windows. Big beautiful windows.
I want to be accurate in what I call it. It wasn't cheating. Nobody in PA has been caught cheating. That isn't what Trump was talking about. He mentioned prosecuting people. That is what Trump said. It's why I asked who was prosecuted for which crime and what punishment did they receive? Who do you think should be prosecuted for which crime? What do you think the punishment should be? You either don't know what you're talking about when say "caught cheating" or you were being dishonest. You either don't know what Trump said, even though the images are in this thread or you're being dishonest. Stop sane-washing for Trump.
