A thought I’ve been having is that if Houston wants to improve their long term outlook, they could just trade Framber, Pressly, and Tucker, sign lesser free agent replacements, and then proceed with their offseason goals as they otherwise would have (add 2 bats and be opportunistic for SP). Out: Tucker, Framber, Pressly, Caratini In: FA bat (Walker or Bregman), FA bat (Heyward), FA bat to replace Tucker (Conforto), SP (Kikuchi), FA P to replace Framber (Heaney), 4 Top 100 prospects, 2 Org top 10 prospects, 2 Lotto prospects Roster: 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez C Diaz RF Conforto LF Heyward 1B Singleton SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, McCormick, Kessinger Rotation: Kikuchi, Brown, Blanco, Heaney, Garcia, Arrighetti Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Ort, Scott, Dubin, Whitley, Montero Farm would be ranked in the 9-16 range in the league. Payroll would be in the 2nd penalty tier.
Would the comp then be Boston, who tried to trade off high priced, but very credentialed performers in Betts, then Sale, and then still keep payroll top 10 and hold on to some key guys (Devers)? They did make the ALCS in 2021, but not really familiar enough to know if they’re that well off for the future due to those trades. I don’t see Crane trading anybody during the contention window unless they’ve changed their stance. I also understand how sell-off trades may help a farm (and an owners pockets), but there’s even more luck/variables/unknowns whether or not that translates to improved “long-term outlook”.
That was more of a salary dump for Boston with David Price iirc, but they didn’t get the right prospects back from LA. Verdugo was middling, Wong is just now breaking in, and Downs busted. The idea would be that the Astros would fare better with the 4-5 guys they’d get in exchange for Tucker and Valdez. Anyway, I can’t see Crane signing off on a plan like that so it’s not gonna happen. But it is a potential way to serve both masters (be good down the road and stay good now).
What if Chas doesn't rebound? He had a wRC+ of 66. Meyers had a wRC+ of 86 and is getting totally cracked on. I get that Chas was much getter prior to last year, but he will be 30 next year. He's no longer in the "improving" part of his career. Isn't there at least a chance that Chas only improves 30% from his 2024 numbers and has a season similar to Jake's 2024 but with worse defense? Considering that risk, why would Chas be considered the answer and not simply another risk that needs to be disregarded? Either upgrade from outside the organization or let Meyers have the job until somebody beats him out. Chas certainly didn't beat him out last year.
If Chas returns to his ‘23 form and Meyers is the same, then Chas should easily beat him out for the CF spot. Of course, Chas could play LF and then play CF when Yordan is playing LF. That would allow Meyers to stay in CF much of the time. If Chas returns to form and there is another LF who is hitting well, other than Yordan or Chas, then Meyers wouldn’t have a starting spot anymore because Chas would be moved to CF. Chas had just 250 at bats last year and an injury in the middle of it. He’s 30. To imply that players don’t have career years after 30 is just not accurate. If he can just match 2023, he should see a lot of time in CF unless Meyers starts hitting too. Chas plays CF just fine and has a knack for the big play. Not losing much when he plays CF, regardless of what baseball savant tells you. I also think Chas is better in CF than he is playing the corner spots.
Betts, not Price, correct? I guess they had Price too. Betts was an MVP, coming off a WS win, and in the thick of his prime. As slam-dunk a multi-position star there is. If he couldn’t fetch the right prospects, and serve both masters, it just further echoes the total inexact science that exercise entails and the risk involved no matter which side of the fence you’re on.
Add the 3 bats at 1B/CF/LF. Spend the money on 2 big bats and another Comforto/Torres type bat. You should have money left over for a vet min 3B. Personally I would give the young guys a shot and adjust as needed. I agree with you that Dana shouldn't wait to make these moves. Really this comes down to would you rather invest in the OF and go cheap at 3B, or would you rather run Meyers out there again next year? Your right we dont know what they have at 3B, they do know what they've got with Meyers in CF and I would rather go young at 3B than run Mendoza out there in CF again next year.
Bregman was 30 this year. I was just pointing out Chas will be 30 next year to point out he has likely peaked. Yes players have career years after 30 but it's not exactly common. Chas absolutely could return to 2023 form, but he could also never hit the 100 level again and be out of baseball in 3 years. Funny how you never talk about the possibility that he doesn't rebound. I think the likelihood is somewhere in the middle but I think hoping he recaptures 2023 while not bringing in an insurance policy is foolish. And for the record, Meyers will be 29 and I feel the same about him. The only difference is he's currently not as far down as Chas and his defense (I understand you disregard everything except your eyes and heart so you don't agree) give him a higher floor while his lack of previous high level performance reduces his ceiling. I would say Chas: Floor: 70 wRC+ / -0.5 WAR Ceing: 130 wRC+ / 4.5 WAR Likely: 100 wRC+ / 2.0 WAR Meyers: Floor: 80 wRC+ / 1.0 WAR Ceiling: 110 wRC+ / 4.0 WAR Likely: 90 wRC+ / 2.5 WAR
Standing pat when your talent level isn't good enough is foolish if you're trying to win a championship.
Obviously, if Chas lays another egg it’s all moot. If Chas returns to 2023 form or even close to that (.800ish OPS would be close enough) and Meyers is the same then it’s just stupid to put Meyers in CF, unless Chas is in left.
I agree that everyone know what Meyers is. I think his ceiling is a very slightly above average hitter (105-110) and likely settles in about 90-95 area. Like Kiermaier he stays around a long time because of his defense but any team who counts on him to be among their top 7 or so hitters will never compete. I like Dezenzo and am hoping for good things I think he has some growing pains ahead and I would rather they happen in AAA but hope and expect him to he a starter and middle of the lineup contributor by 2026. That's why 3b to me is the priority.
We agree on this also. If Chas can get back to even 110ish level then he should take over for Meyers. In my scenario, they brought in another LF so Chas wouldn't be needed there. If they don't bring anyone in and Chas rebounds, then they are still stuck with Jake in CF because Chas is needed in LF. But if I were a betting man I would put my money on Jake to have a better 2025 than Chas.
What makes you think Meyers will ever be even avg, much less above avg? Other than hope and fandom, at Meyers age he is what he is, a good 4th OF.
Why would you bet on a guy with a much less proven track record, over Chas, who's at least proven in one season he can hit MLB pitching at an above avg level?
Hard for Chas to rebound in your scenario. He would have to do it in sporadic at bats off the bench. Since all we are talking about is 250 injury riddled at bats last year, I don't think it’s far fetched to think that Chas can produce again like he did just a season ago if given a proper chance.
He wasn’t a Chas believer before he had the good season. As the 2023 season progressed, he acquiesced a bit when it became undeniable that Chas was the better option in CF over Meyers. After Chas had a bad April in 2024 he turned on him again. It didn’t take a big sample size.
2B- Altuve RF- Tucker DH- Yordan 3B- ? C- Diaz 1B- singleton and ? LF- Chas SS- Pena CF- Meyers Not so bad if a good 3B is acquired and if Chas can get back to 2023 form. 1B probably needs attention.
