I will say defensive numbers are typically a young man's game such that the stats rarely show them being worth much in free agency. Though, Kiermayer made a good living, Cleveland traded a valuable prospect for Straw, Tampa traded for Siri, Pillar hung around for a while, and the Astros have been employing cheap defensive first CFs for a while suggesting they think there is value there. There is ample evidence that smart teams value defense, but that they spend money on hitting. Yes, a good defensive and hitting CF is worth a ton more. The Astros with a few very notable exceptions have employed club controlled talent or cheap defense-first talent at C, SS, and CF for a while suggesting they think they can get cheap value there so they can spend real money on pitching and offense at positions that defense is less important.
There is certainly value in CHEAP defensive first centerfielders if you have enough offense elsewhere - which is why I would try to upgrade offense at 1st and LF before messing with CF. Meyers is a better hitter than Straw and doesn't cost a lot of money. I also am not saying to abandon defense - it has been a big part of why the Astros have been good. However - I don't know that the Astros would pay Meyers 12-15 million a year when they would for a 3 WAR player at another position. Developing guys that can hit well enough and play CF is important.
You have no idea about how bad that White Sox clubhouse has been the last 5 years. There were so many bad chemistry guys it is hard to tell who is just a bad guy and who acts out in a bad culture. For example Kendall Graveman and Dallas K were huge cancers when they were in Chicago and are not. Still - I would probably try not to take both Moncada and Robert together. Moncada was a guy that didn't stay in shape and formed a faction with Yasmani Grandal and Jimenez and they had a brawl with Tim Anderson. Robert basically threw his hands up and shut down when the Sox refused to trade him. He then came back and played well in the hopes they would deal him at the break in 2023 - they didn't and he shut down again. I personally expect Robert to have a huge year if healthy and on a good team with veterans. For example - he hung out with Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig and Raisel but stopped this year because they were bad influences.
The Astros are likely to pay Meyers about $2M. He's likely worth well above that even if you don't trust WAR. The talk about $12-15M for Meyers is really not relevant. Meyers is unlikely ever to be projected for 2 WAR during a FA year much less 3 WAR. Defense first guys just aren't projected to be worth much in WAR in FA because they typically age poorly and rarely reach free agency with value. Their free agent pay reflects this. Defense, even what is projected, is still paid less than hitting because it is riskier. Though for reference, Kiermayer got about $12M (extended while still under club control) a year and he was likely projected around 2-2.5 WAR (edit: it was 1.9 FWAR using their depth charts) at the time. An equivalent hitter likely would have gotten $15-$20M. I think Meyers's track record is a lot worse than Kiermeyer's despite being similar level hitters.
I am well aware of what the Astros will likely pay Meyers - and that is why I suspect that he will be the centerfielder next year. Yes 12-15 million dollars is relevant - as there is an effort to value WAR across the board in dollar terms. If Meyers is really worth 2-3 WAR per 162 - the Astros wouldn't have struggled to find anyone to deal a reliever for him like they did last year. Kiermaier is one of the best defensive centerfielders of the last 25 years - and even then, he got paid because he also flashed a solid bat. Even late in his career, it was injuries that derailed him - he was a 4-5 WAR player when healthy. My point is that WAR is not valued consistently across the board at all positions and that is expressed in what teams actually pay players - and that isn't entirely explained by the age of a player either.
The Astros have several holes for 2025 that simply must be addressed, and their likely best position player and best pitcher will be free agents after the season. Meyers isn't an all star and should never be among the 6 or 7 best hitters on a team, but he's not a hole that needs replacing in his 1st arb season. I would even say, if he has a similar year in 2025, they should not actively look to replace him in 2026, at arb 2 salary. If a CF has a breakout in AAA next year, that's different. I'm just talking about actively looking for a replacement, not one happening organically. But regardless, Jake will need to take a big step forward in 25 and 26 to be worth an arb3 salary in 2027.
I disagree with some of this. I dont have an issue with Dubon playing 3B more than that. I also dont have an issue with Dezenzo being counted on to be the starting 3B going into/coming out of Spring Training. I've got no problem with using a 5 man rotation.
They aren't winning anything with a crap bottom of the lineup like that. What this really comes down to is if you let Bregs walk. You've got a choice of going out and getting a guy like Robert and Walker but you will have to go with Dezenzo or a vet like Urshela/Rengifo at vet min at 3B. Or you add Walker and keep Meyers in CF and have the bottom of the lineup like you have listed. Give me Robert and Dezenzo over Meyers and whoever they decide to put at 3B. That doesn't even begin to address the LF issues. If they only add 2 bats I hope they go with Robert and Walker. This will not only help the offense but the defense as well, with Walker being a GG type guy at 1st and I'm not sure Robert isn't as good as Meyers defensively. Then go with Dezenzo at 3B and a platoon of Gamel/Whitcomb in LF until hopefully Matthews/Melton are ready. That's if Crane wants to go cheap, which I wouldn't have an issue with if they bring back Kikuchi or somebody comparable to him in the rotation. What I dont want to see is a bottom of the lineup that you listed.
You really love you some Mr. Mendoza and I'm thinking you're going to get what you want and the Stros aren't winning crap with Meyers in CF. I told you this last offseason and I'm telling you this again this offseason. Best the Stros can hope for is that either Matthews or Melton can takeover for Mendoza err... Meyers in CF around the trade deadline. Sometimes WAR is a misleading stat.
I would be really happy with an OF of Tucker/Robert/Duvall An infield of Walker/Altuve/Pena/Dezenzo. with Diaz catching This should be able to be done within the budget. BTW, that's a very good defensive team for the guys that think Meyers glove makes up for his lack of a bat.
I think Dubon as a backup starting a couple of games per month at a position is fine, especially at 2b. But more than that lends itself to a very weak lineup. He's a career 87 OPS+ hitter who was 88 this year. He simply shouldn't becstarting more than a couple of games per week, ideally less. You and I have discussed Dezenzo and understand each other. I have no issue with a 5 man rotation, in a vacuum. What I don't want is only 5 healthy SP, or pitchers who are clearly SP quality relegated to the bullpen in order to keep a 5 man rotation.
I heard you mention the values for top 100 prospects and got me started on this huge project. I looked up values and started listing the estimated surplus/trade values of all Astros prospects and current players. I will probably have all kinds of hypothetical trades posted soon. Thanks - I think, lol. I need to go back and finish the podcast, lol.
Last post I'm gonna make in this regard for a little while. The collective production of the offense is what matters, not 1 through 9 depth. The Yankees just had the best offense in the AL and went to the WS with a 2.5 man lineup. Every team has holes in their lineup near the bottom, it is not something to be concerned with. The goal is to improve the net offense and defense, not shuffle the roster around just to avoid offensive holes. If the Astros are able to get improvements at all the liabilities great, but something tells me the resources aren't there for that. Our offense sucked last season because we had multiple holes, a mediocre offensive shortstop, an injury to our best player, Bregman played half a season offensively and Jose Altuve was extremely meh after the first month of the season...not just Jake Meyers.
Easy to say when the top two hitters on the roster totaled 18.7 WAR between them. If the Astros can line up the two best hitters in the AL back to back, they too can afford to carry more crappy bats in the lineup. The Astros top of the lineup (Altuve - Yordan - Tucker - Bregman) was worth less WAR than those two this season. It's easier to improve on the margins, replacing 0.3 WAR guys like Singleton with better versions, than it is to acquire the kind of guys hitting #2 and #3 for the Yanks.
Dubon is a guy I would have starting 2-3 days a week. But maybe less because you've added guys like Walker/Robert and he could give Altuve a break once a week along with giving Robert a break once a week and Dezenzo a break. Anyways We could debate Dubon but if he only started once or twice a week I certainly wouldn't take issue with your plan. They've got enough pitching now, although I would like to see them bring back Kikuchi or the equivalent of him. Starting pitching is the strength of the team. Bring Kikuci back that means you've got 5 very good starting pitchers and Garcia is back (Although I would like to see Garcia coming out of the bullpen) Then you've got guys like Blubaugh/Gusto etc.. down in AAA- AA to supplement the MLB starting staff. I'm not that worried about the bullpen even if they hopefully decide to move Pressly. I'm hoping a Pressly trade can bring back a MLB ready prospect.
Look at the Yankess using your plan and them struggling to score runs against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a deeper lineup and that's why along with their starting pitching that they're about to win a ring. I'm still baffled at your stance against putting the best bats in the lineup as possible and still have say, Robert in CF instead of Meyers and Walker at 1B vs the crap that they put out there last year. Still a very good defense and all within budget. Again, why wouldn't you want this?
We talked about this on our pod last night- Kiermeyer is probably a reasonable comp for Jake and he got 1/8 and 1/10 I believe his last two FA seasons? War would probably say Jake is worth 25M in surplus value the next 3 years (if you think he gets to 5 war totaland that war is worth 8M) but nobody would pay him that. We had him traded for a 40 grade prospect if you were going to blow it up. look forward to seeing it.
