There's an older guy that has done that in 500 PAs over the last 2 seasons if one thinks the Astros time to contend is likely only for another season or 2 such that youth isn't necessary. Was a very good defensive catcher last season and stats suggests this is not an outlier. Had an outlier hitting season last year, but has hit well enough the past 3 years that he's still likely an average or better catcher. Hits better than most pinch hitters and can hit RHPs. Costs $6M next season. Prospect cost to acquire such a bargain would be virtually nothing.
If you look back at my posts, you will see this is exactly what I would like, in a vacuum. The issues are: 1) The Astros already have holes in the lineup and limited money to spend. 2) Diaz is essentially unplayable at 1b and Yordan can't play LF more than 25% of the time. There is an argument that Altuve should be 2nd up for DH starts. 3) Diaz made a great deal of progress and was actually better than I ( and maybe Astros?) expected in 2024. 4) As a catcher, Diaz is All Star level. That's not the case at any other position. Anytime he is at a different position the Astros lose an advantage. The argument to move Diaz off of catcher is a long term, not short term one. The rigors of catching is the reason, not Yainer's ability as a catcher ( which is adequate not great or even very good). The Astros are in win now mode and the advantage of having Diaz at catcher outweighs any "freshness" benefit of playing him elsewhere (which I have personally advocated for) at least until he has a couple more years of catching wear and tear on him and he enters his late 20s.
Part of this is that Yainer needs practice time and work at 1b or LF to get to the level that he is playable. He probable won't be in 2025. Yordan needs to be a DH 90% of the time with a LF game thrown in every couple of weeks to keep that as an option for the post season. Altuve really SHOULD be a 50/50 2b/DH, especially with Dubon on the team, but Yordan's presence won't allow that. Still, he should DH everytime Yordan is not, especially vs a LHSP. All this adds up to the Astros needing to keep Diaz catching, at least in 2025.
I don't know if this is on the Astros radar for 2025 or not, but. . . Altuve is rapidly declining as a 2b, and not playable at any other position. He is under contract for 5 more years, and should be getting more and more starts at DH as the years progress. Yordan is a HOF level hitting talent. He is also fragile and an injury risk simply doing baseball activities at game level effort. He is adequate but not good fielder at the least important defensive position on the field. It is simply vital to keep him healthy. He is under contract for 4 more years. The best and most likely LF currently on the roster has been very good vs LHP but nothing special (especially at a bat first position) vs RHP. At times he has been quite bad, especially in 2024. The gold glove caliber replacement for 2b if/When Altuve DH's also hits LHP but not RHP. Therefore, it's best for Altuve to DH vs LHSP, but this moves Yordan to LF and keeps the regular LFer from playing vs his best matchups. This team needs a LF ( and a CF) who can mash RHP. Right now, this is a 2025 problem but it could get very ugly by 2027 and 2028.
It is hard to really predict what players will get - there are a few teams that may pay a premium for someone like Bregman. My best guess is Walker gets close to 3/60 on the market. Kikuchi isn't getting a "prove it" contract, he will likely want 4 years and teams will want him at 3 years at around 20 million a year. Bregman should get at least 25 million a year for 6-7 years - and I could see him getting 27-28 million a year or more from a team like the Yankees or Diamondbacks. At some point the short length and lesser money is going to be very appealing to both Crane and Brown. They may be willing to pay Kikuchi/Walker a combined $40,000,000 a year for three years over paying Bregman $28,000,000 a year for 6-7 years. Especially with a possible rebuild coming. If the Astros move Pressly and Caratini - because that clears up right around $20,000,000 next season - and the commitment to Kikuchi and Walker suddenly is $100,000,000 over 3 years.
Yeah and Contreras is a notoriously poorly prepared catcher when he is back there full time - he is great part time. I would love to have Contreras to back up catch and get time in LF and 1st ... if the Cards want to move off that contract.
Agree with this.... but I suspect there will be more than a 2.5 million AAV. My "ideal" scenario would be a reasonable trade for Wilson Contreras - so he can catch 25% of the time, play some LF and 1st base.... get him 550 at bats.... sign Kikuchi or another #2-3 starter after moving Pressly and Caratini..... and look for another bat on a short term deal with upside....
Nah - the Astros have a catcher already. They need 2 above average bats, ideally one that is capable of hitting near the heart of the order - and they need another solid arm for the rotation. That bat in the heart of the order can be Walker, Contreras or someone in trade....
Baseball contracts don't make sense to me. Kikuchi 2021 - Age 30 - 1.7 WAR over 29 games 2022 - Age 31 - -1.1 WAR over 32 games 2023 - Age 32 - 1.8 WAR over 32 games 2024 - Age 33 - 1.4 WAR over 32 games 0.1 WAR over 22 games Toronto, 1.3 WAR over 10 games Houston Kichi average over the last 4 years is < 1 WAR (3.8 WAR / 4). If one projects Kikuchi to an optimistic 2.0 WAR for his 34-36 age season, that contract would be $16 million per year (assuming 1 WAR costs $8 million).
My free agent contract limits for who I think should be their top 5 targets: Bregman $160M/6yrs +7th yr $35M vesting option Santander $125M/5yrs Bellinger $125M/5yrs Kikuchi $50M/3yrs +4th yr $18M vesting option Walker $50M/3yrs Adding 3 of those players at those prices or less would be a home run offseason imho.
Diaz is playable at 1B. Even playing horrendously bad this season such that it is unlikely he'll have an extended streak that bad defensively going forward, he hit well enough to be playable at 1B. His career defensive numbers suggests he's merely one of the worst first basemen in the game, but that isn't enough to make him unplayable. Sure it may make people scream at the TV as they see him play 1B defensively more often than they see him hit. The hitting is much more valuable than his defense at 1B hurts. Even if he never plays 1B, he will rest from catching enough such that Caratini can still be worth $6M catching while also providing a PH off the bench that can hit RHPs. Heck, Caratini probably can play 1B and be worth $6M. I wouild expect Caratini's hitting to spike at 1B like most catchers when they are playing 1B. I would not consider 1B optimal with or without him hitting better as a 1B. It is just going to take nearly $20M more to get someone actually good at 1B such that the $6M isn't a big deal. Alvarez just played 35% of the time in LF and was easily better than any qualified LF when he played LF. I'm not so concerned with the regular season PAs as long as the Astros add someone like Kikuchi. Alvarez should be the LF in the postseason to get an additional average or better hitter in the game that liely can't play defense. I've got no problem with Diaz catching. I'm fine with Diaz catching three quarters of the time. Caratini still would provide enough value in that 1/4 as a catcher to be more than worth $6M. Though, he also provides a situational bat off the bench. I just fully expect something will go wrong next season such that either Diaz or Caratini will be hurt for a month or that someone else will be hurt for a month such that it makes sense playing both of them.
So what I am hearing this fall is that Diaz should be playing DH exclusively when he is not catching. Altuve is getting too slow and should be playing DH as often as possible. Playing Alvarez in left field is too risky and he needs to play at DH full time to avoid that risk. Is there no limit to how many DH's you can fit onto a 26 man roster? Platooning 1st base is the obvious solution for Singleton. It will take a platoon at third to replace Bregman and perhaps we should consider a platoon in left field. Apparently the roster will be expanding by about 5 players. The Astros have held on to players that are becoming defensive liabilities just to keep bats (also ageing) with no place to put them. I have always hated the very idea of platooning. If a player is so bad at his job 1/3 of the time that you have to carry an extra player he is taking up two roster spots.
When the discussion of potentially adding Walker comes up, the Astros were absolutely reprehensible defensively at 1B last season. They were an absolute trainwreck. Singleton and Diaz are butchers, maybe Diaz gets a little better there...but I wouldn't expect much. First base is at the bottom of the defensive value ranking but still, there's a lot of gain on the fringe there that normally isn't considered from the position.
WAR is a not a good metric for evaluating every player. But say you think the Astros "unlocked" something that helped Kikuchi going forward. His 10 starts for Houston is good for a 4 WAR pace over the course of a year. He's got really good stuff, strikes out lots of guys, his improvement seems repeatable in the short term. He's also stayed healthy for the course of his career. The Astros clearly value him as more than an "optimistic 2.0 WAR guy". Or they wouldn't have traded what they did for him. I think Nook is right, some other teams will see what he did for us after the trade, look at the quality of his pitches, and value him highly, too.
Part of the issue is using WAR for pitching. It's a great tool to evaluate position players, but for pitching the formulas are completely different. The differences between bWAR and fWAR are magnified as well. Example = His fWAR for 2024 was 3.4 and even w/ a negative fWAR in 2022 he has averaged over 1.5 fWAR in that same 4 years he has been under 1.0 in bWAR. And there is a liklihood that he is a better pitcher than his pre-Astro numbers show. Bottom line is that SPs who are effective, healthy, and has only the same risks that all SPs have are at a premium and worth more. Period. 7 SPs had at least 175 ip and 200 Ks in 2024. Kikuchi was one of them and his Astro numbers project to 192 ip and 243 Ks. That would tie him for 8th in MLB in IP and lead MLB in Ks. Kikuchi is going to be in demand and make way more than most of the hopes posted here.
Yes, but will he be an All Star or merely good at the position? 32 catchers had 300+ PAs. Yainer (wRC+ = 117) was tied for 3rd best. 43 first basemen had 300+ PAs Yainer was tied for 17th best. Having a 117 bat at catcher is huge. It's like having Springer in CF and Correa at SS was for this team 2015-2019 (we don't talk about 2020)
The question isn't really whether he is playable at 1st. He obviously is at this point of his career - because he has played some there. The goal is to maximize his value and to win ball games. He is a better catcher than he is a first baseman for many reasons. Playing him there 20 games next year is likely fine, unless they want him to focus on catching. It isn't a matter of whether Caratini is worth his salary next year, of course he is. He is a very solid reserve catcher that is well respected and his salary is reasonable for what he is. The question is whether the Astros would be better served using his money elsewhere - and that is an open question and largely depends on what the team does. If adding Kikuchi or Walker comes down to needing the salary of Caratini - then you deal Caratini. If the Astros make a deal for Wilson Contreras - then you deal Caratini. Caratini full time at first base isn't a good idea - it is at best mediocre - especially if Bregman is gone. The Astros tried that and the line up wasn't good. Depends on many things - including Alvarez' health. If there is a left fielder available in trade or free agency - then there is no issue with Alvarez DHing. The Astros just don't want a lot of holes.... for example, having a hole at 1st and DH last year wasn't acceptable. Again - it isn't a matter of getting rid of Caratini just to get rid of him - it depends on what their plans are.
