I think fans are too set on Green as the guy because of this deal,and how it relates to long term extensions. This trade keeps Green under club control next season without risking too much long term if he busts. If Green improves, but doesn't necessarily look foundation worthy it keeps him extremely tradeable if we look to move him for a superstar. Its a calculated choice that mainly pushes back the call on a talented young player.
I would have definitely waited a year and gathered more data from this season... Unless he were willing to take a TRULY team-friendly deal (something like a 2/45 or 3/70 with a TO or NG year). I'm not saying he should or would have taken that deal, I'd fully expect it to go to RFA. To me, Jalen hasn't proven he can consistently be a winning net-positive player, and if you can't confidently expect that from a guy I wouldn't commit 25% of the cap to him for potentially 3 years. But 15%? Okay maybe worth the gamble and at worst you can trade him down the line as a 6th man making 6th man money if you need to.
Your expectations regarding rookie extensions are wildly outside the market. How has Cade proven to be a max extension player but Green is only worth 3/70?
Because they did not go further like with the KPJ contract you implied......add incentives like playing 80 games..... 3 pt percentage above 36% get extra 10 million.....for example. That would have added extra spice to the contract. They just stopped. He was already a 2nd pick, that meant he earned close to 9 million annually already.....but I guess he only deserved half of it. (compared to Alpe's 3 million)
Cade hasn't proven he's worth that at all, it's a huge gamble for Detroit. I would have 100% waited until after this season with Cade as well.
The pistons have zero risk with Cade. If he flops, detriot is tanking anyway so having one horrible contract doesn't matter. If Jalen flops, having 3 years of an albatross can hurt the rockets a lot.
Yeah, 5 years $224,000,000 is a joke. But Detroit has to overpay. Neither the city nor the organization is a big draw for players. I give Stone credit for not handing out such a contract automatically (although I hope for the best case scenario with Green, whatever that might be).
This week, Green agreed to a three-year, $106 million contact extension with the Houston Rockets and Draya was quick to chime in. She responded with five simple words on Instagram: "Congrats!!! Term short. Money lonnnnng!"
I've been critical of Green, particularly the streaky shooting, But I do think this is a good deal for the team (almost shocked he signed it). He's such a young player and has tremendous upside despite the disappointing shooting so far, this deal buys the team two more years to see if he develops on the potential. If not, they aren't stuck with him long term and the contract is entirely tradable. It's also a good deal for Jalen as it gets him to the veteran max 30% faster - should he earn it,
Do we like the deal? It's an easy No. I don't understand how this gets 80% yes vote. Extending Green isn't bad, as I do believe Green will be serviceable and has potential to be worth the max. Still, the deal's "creativity" just seems like a poor calculation from Stone's office that's hard to justify. There's a reason rookie extension doesn't get handed out in this way. The best-case scenario in favor of the Rockets in this deal is that Green grows into a superstar, but in any case you can always resign him to a full 5-year max with player option after next season in restricted FA. The only reason to extend early for a risky prospect like him is to split the risk in order to get long-term team-friendly terms and/or savings if the most favorable scenario plays out. They managed to save a measly ~$9M/year for 2 capped-out non-tax-paying years as the upside? And even this little upside is immediately countered by the risk of losing him 3 years early... The worst-case scenario for the Rockets is that Green gets injured or regresses during his Year 4, and then you're stuck with him for $35M/year for 3 more years. Three whole years, not two! How's this risk/reward profile justifiable for the team? The issue is that a 2+1po deal is a lot more player-friendly than a 4+1po deal. Imagine if Sengun gets Jalen's exact deal instead of his 4+1po, I don't think Clutchfans will be as happy. That just shows you how much Jalen's deal favors the player over the team. Honestly if Rockets would love to gamble on Jalen's stardom, it's almost more logical to just hand him $35M/year for 5 years with no player option. Yes, two more years of risk (perhaps a career-ending risk for Stone to take), but at least you get legitimate upside from the deal to build a super-team around your core duo.
I gotta say, your post makes no sense. If Jalen develops into a superstar, the PO gives both sides an incentive to negotiate early and extend him in 2026 using his bird rights. No other team will be able to negotiate with him. He’s not going to turn down a 30% cap level extension that basically sets him up to sign a 35% supermax the exact year he is able. Conversely, if he doesn’t work out, then this contract is much, much easier to trade.
~$9M/year for 5 years would be substantial upside, especially given that in a good-case scenario the team would be playing taxes to compete for a title when Jalen is in his prime during those later years. I would try to negotiate for $35M/y for 4 years + a 1-year team option. That's $45M savings versus $140M (minus whatever a non-star Jalen is worth) risk. I wouldn't give him 5 straight years (since wait and see is better), but even that is better than the current deal.
I actually don’t think there is much chance of losing Jalen if he becomes a superstar. We’ll just pay him the most we can as soon as we can. As weird as it sounds, I do think there is some risk if Jalen becomes a very good player, but not quite a superstar. Then, I think there may be some risk of Jalen opting out in the hopes of a team giving him a massive extension.
Well, I see your argument that Rockets is in the driver seat to retain the superstar Jalen, fair. But still, the risk/reward profile of the deal is pretty bad for the team, compared to giving/matching a max extension (or whatever he's worth) next summer. Trading a 2+1po $106M contract for an underperforming player is by no means easy.
I don't think there's any circumstance in which we're trying to "dump" Green next offseason. Trade towards a star, sure. But dump? No way. A year after that, however, if he's still underperforming, he'll only have two years left and will be easily movable if he doesn't work out. Conversely, large, five year contracts can be absolute albatrosses that destroy franchises. A team may be willing to absorb a bad contract for two years. More than than is usually off the table. Like I said before, the largest source of "risk" to me is if Jalen becomes a very good but not great player. Like, borderline All Star. In that case, the Rockets may be hesitant to give him a massive extension, resulting in him opting out in 2027. Conversely, had we just given him a non-max five year contract, he would be a very valuable asset in such a situation.
