Jalen is banking on himself here. If the bet pans out and he gets close to his ceiling I think he takes his talents to California on a supermax deal closer to home.
Yeah this wouldn't surprise me at all in all honesty. If he blows up this season or next then the Rockets are going to have to max him for sure because he'll almost certainly look towards the bigger markets as his first choices.
I have been accused of being a Jater and I would have zero issues paying Jalen if he proves he deserves it which up to this point due he has not due to being incredibly inconsistent. I think they should have waited to see how he does this season before extending him. I hope we get something close to March Jalen from this investment rather than what we got the rest of last season.
I've come around on this deal a little bit, after working through the extension / free agency scenarios Jalen will have in the future. I had been very concerned that if Jalen outplays this contract, he would turn down an extension with us, opt out after year 6, demand a 1+1, and then demand the 30% max as a UFA. This would suck. HOWEVER, I just realized that Jalen will actually be eligible for an extension after the first year of this deal. Two full years before he can get to UFA for the 30% max. So even if Jalen is really good and outplays this contract, like top 20 player good, he'll probably want to sign an extension with us at that time. That extension will be constrained at rookie extension numbers, not the 30% max. Otherwise he'd need to wait 2 full years to lock in any money, which isn't really something players do. Him signing that extension would require him opting in to year 3 of this contract. This would be great for us. So basically unless Jalen is like an MVP, top 3 itl level player, the scenario where he opts out just isn't going to happen. This was obviously thought out by Stone, so respect to him for that. Whatever you think of the AAV, and I'm not wild about it, this is a real "contract of the future". It's more about setting up advantageous future extension conditions than optimizing for length or dollars. In the modern NBA, extensions rule everything. Free agency is dead.
This matches my thoughts. This deal seems driven by FOMO. The Rockets don't want to lose Green in case he breaks out, but don't want him on the books longer than 3 years if he doesn't. The problem is that the Rockets get the short end of the stick regardless of whether Green breaks out or doesn't with this deal. The biggest benefit of this deal is that it provides a known cost for Green the next 2 seasons which will make dealing with FVV easier.
The Rockets/Stone get in love with the idea of "good value contracts" (same actually goes for Sengun) more so than they care about the fit on the floor. Re-signing JaeSean Tate was a small example of this - they could have just exercised his option and recouped some minor value for him years ago, he's not a key piece going forward. These are ostensiblly fine contracts, I agree with that, but I'm not 100% convinced that Sengun-Green is a workable pairing past their current level given both their limits but they basically went all in on both for the next 3 years.
In that sense, if he opts out after 2 seasons, we can only assume that the Rockets were content with a 2 year rental.
Don't like the player option and AAV is a bit too high, but like the shorter length to give us more time to evaluate his improvement. Would have preferred like 30M/year for 3 years with a team option.
Every deal every team makes, the team thinks the outcome will likely be acceptable. The Rockets likely were not content when they had to deal KPJ (i.e., there are scenarios can make a team not content with certain outcomes of a deal). I think Jalen's agent won this deal. There is very little downside to Jalen Green on this deal.
"2+1 says....we're not fully sold on what you are right now....but we like you and we're intrigued by what you can become."
Unless this new contract fits into a deal in mind later this season to a team that would look to keep him longer term.
I see why a deal like this was palatable for Jalen Green based off how he’s played so far in his career…a max or mega deal could be attained 2 years from now if he balls out I still need at least 22-24 ppg with a side of 5 boards and 5 assists on at least 56-57% TS
On Sengun, he's the best young player the Rockets have so far. That is a good value contract as it is easily moveable to almost any team with the Rockets receiving draft capital back. Until someone unseats Sengun as the best young player on the Rockets over a larger sample than a month, other young player contracts need to fit him and not the other way around. The Jalen contract is Stone in that it is a weird contract. I don't think the Green contract will be universally loved like the Sengun contract unless Green becomes great...in which case it would be more valuable with more years. Combined, I think Stone did a great job yesterday. I just expected Green, if he was going to get extended, would be for less and not be this weird a contract, and Sengun would have been for more. I do say that there might be something I'm not seeing with Green's deal.
That should have been the requirement for this deal, IMO. For a max extension in 2 years, he's going to need to be firmly above league-average efficiency.
The core misconception derive from the inherent perception of rookie value. Rookie max extensions are rarely paid based on their current level of performance, most are paid based on future level of performance, and as such most are significantly overpaid as a result. We can take the 2021 draft class as an example. Wagner, Barnes, Cade and Mobley all received max contracts. However, which of the 4 players are currently playing like max contract players? If all of these players fail to improve noticeably in the next 1-2 years, would they still warrant a max contract, or did you just significantly overpay? If Jalen Green plays as well, or better than Wagner, Barnes, Cade and Mobley in the coming season, his market value is now a max contract. Not because he is playing like a max contract player, but because he would be paid a "premium on potential" just like the rest of these guys (and if he isn't getting the contract from the Rockets, someone else will offer it). If this is true, the Rockets would have received a bargain contract for 2 more years. However, the market value for players is also much more accurate after 6 years in the league, compared to the first 3-4 years, because the player's potential is now much more defined. That means the Rockets do not need to worry about another team gambling on Green's potential, because no team will gamble on a player's potential at year 6. Instead, they can now pay a fair value for Green, which could be a max, or it could be less than that, but it would be a far more accurate assessment of his value.
Dude when you post the same exact idea like 30 times in the last 48 hours, you're really communicating what you think and not what they think. We get it. You don't believe he's worth $35m right now. 2+1 overpay can just as easily mean we believe in you more than anyone in the league because we know your character. It can also mean we need a neat-sized contract as salary filler in a trade next summer. Can mean a ton of things. Don't let it distract you from the fact that you think it can only mean the thing you believe. The thing you believed before the news ever came out: that the rockets are secretly nefariously doubtful of Green.
