I have been posting the betting markets not because I think at any moment in the market dictates the polling outcome, but to track the sentiment and momentum. In two weeks, we have gone from a 'toss-up' in the betting markets to a full blown lead. The important take away is this spread continues to widen. Also I have been tracking the popular vote spread. It has been marginally decreasing. The Republicans have not won a popular vote in 20 years, and that was only by 2.4%. Harris is at a meager 1.7% lead right now in the national. Anything below a 2.3% is almost a guarantee loss. Harris is a loser and always has been a loser.
I don’t think you understand what sentiment and momentum mean in relation to this Peter Theil owned polymarket. A small handful of people have dumped millions in bets for Trump in recent days that have increased his percentage here on this one particular betting site. That is not related at all to overall public sentiment or momentum. It’s two or three human beings that have a sh$t ton of money and likely are Elon Musk or other Trump donors who are substituting putting their money in a campaign ad and instead inflating this betting market, and then assuming their online activists like you will then propagate a narrative out of it. How does it feel to openly be used as a tool? Do you have any shame at all being some obviously used as a propaganda messenger on the behalf of Trump?? You claimed for years to be objective to now just blatantly working for his campaign.
I don't think I am. Democrats bragging about an all-time-high stock market is like Trump bragging about the Dow when he was in office. Great for the wealthy, meaningless to those who don't have a 401k. It hasn't trickled down for 40 years. The Fed just cut rates because inflation is cooling, but regular people's sentiment changes at a slower pace than the "economy" at large. Trump is a clown whose solutions, both when he was in office and those he has proposed now, will exacerbate the economic woes of the lower and middle classes. Everyone's mad about the price of groceries now? Wait until he slaps a 20% tariff on everything HEB imports from Mexico. A vote for Harris is a vote against self-induced chaos. I know that isn't much, but it's where I am.
Cheaper than going to Nordstrom to buy a gift. Unless you are in San Fransisco and you get 950.00 worth of free goods.. I kid I kid.
LOL…polymaker is being manipulated. I suggest you put down ALL your money on this. Trump will thank you for it!
My prediction is if Trump does win he won’t actually get his 20% tariffs. The Republican Congress has too many business interests to Go along with it and even Trump himself knows how much goods are manufactured cheaply over seas. Like his bibles. Also while Trump was president he put in tariffs but also relaxed some even with the PRC when got favorable deals for his famliy.
You could just go look at the other betting markets before writing your post. Average right now is +19 for trump https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
He's expected to do them through executive action. The extreme nature of them scares me. I'm also scared about the efforts Congress will make to pass tax free tips and overtime which are both terrible ideas.
He likely will pass some token tariffs but I doubt even if he can do it by executive action, as 20% tariffs across the board will violate treaties we have with many other countries. Given how much he manufactures overseas he won’t risk tariffs to products he and his family sell. If he does actually do it and Congress goes along we will see inflation skyrocket and the economy go in the tank. Especially if he does actually try a mass deportation program.
If anyone truly thinks Harris could win this election, there is a triple-your-coin opportunity. Harris bids are extremely under-priced at this level. Almost no risk what so ever. This bid is so lopsided with Trump scammers headed up by Thiel. Take their money while you can.
polymarkets employs nate silver and they are tied to trump but other betting agencies have him as the firm fav.
He did the same thing 4 years ago. Bill Clinton years ago was the same way … brought out to stump very hard in key states. No idea how much difference it actually makes. I’ll say this - he is very good at it. So I wouldn’t read desperation into what he is doing.
