With Green's deal at 35 mil per year and Sengun's at 37, we should have plenty of room to resign FVV. In fact, playing around with cap calculator, we could even opt into his contract and still have decent breathing room before the luxury tax.
I hope that the Alpi/Jalen deals mean that we will keep FVV for a few years as well. His impact on the team as a whole cannot be overstated. Together with Ime, he changed the culture and he helped to unlock Alpi. Also, he is only 30. Can probably still play another 4-5 years at the same level.
I think it is now likely FVV will be extended next summer. IMO, it is certain (1) the Rockets won't trade him during the season nor (2) he returns next year as a lame duck. It's possible (3) they don't want to extend him next summer and trade him to another team that will. Most likely (4) he extends for 2-3 years in 2025.
Why not Reed and Amen become so good that FVV becomes redundant, but the Rockets keep FVV because he's as good as Reed and Amen?
I think the concern is how much of the cap space FVV will occupy. If he can be signed for a lower contract, I'd say by all means. If Amen develops a shot, he can pretty much play any position and fit with anybody. It would be a bit tricky if Reed turns into a star level PG. Assuming Jalen is here to stay in a big role given his contract, it's going to be hard to find enough minutes for both Reed and Fred together with Jalen in the backcourt. Perhaps, eventually Reed will beat out Fred as the starter and Fred coming off the bench as the vet backup. If so, then again he should be paid accordingly, definitely not what he is getting now.
I love Fred as much as anybody, but comparing him to Jalen is wild lol. I loved watching Fred ball out when he was Jalen's age... at Wichita State against solid OVC competition. Jalen's potential is massively higher, but that's not even the issue. The question is can we extend Fred, not should we. Everyone who watches this team knows we cannot function (for now) without him. Until Amen, Reed, or whoever steps up to run the show when Freddy is out, we need to have him here, and maybe even after those guys can take over for him and he can be like a Ricky Rubio type for the squad. Massively valuable player for our specific team composition. I'm so glad he came here.
imo, The only scenario where we lose FVV is also the best rebuilding scenario. It’s where the Core 7 all hit in such a way that FVV becomes a 2nd Apron casualty. By my calculations, that means Jalen and Amen get 25% Max contracts, Reed gets the Sengun-discount contract, Jabari gets a Jaden McDaniels contract (16% of cap), Tari gets a Naz Reid contract, and Cam is sold on a contract equivalent to Jabari’s.
I think the concerns over cap/apron space are overstated. I don't think things get too dicey for the cap if FVV signs a three extension after this season.
He's an expensive player, and an older player. It's not that I don't love the guy, but the best case scenario for the rockets is that our future replacement for FVV as primary playmaker is either Sheppard or Amen, or a combination of both. If we end up with Mark Price and Magic Johnson, both in their early 20s, we have no need for Fred.
You don't get rid of Michael Jordan in his early 30s because you also have Mark Price and Magic Johnson in their early 20s. You don't get rid of a player because the team is just too good. On best scenario, I think the best scenario is that FVV, Amen, and Reed are hoisting up the Larry O'Brien together. I'm doubtful that FVV will be on an extension that he's not worth his contract. You look to cut the Steve Kerr's and Horace Grant's before you look at getting rid of Michael Jordan. I suspect FVV's talent will be more the deciding factor on if he stays in Houston than on whether Amen and Reed become great.
But FVV is closer to Steve Kerr and Horace Grant (high end role player) than Michael Jordan (GOAT superstar).
I actually think it may be advantageous for the rockets to start negotiations at a low number then just pick up FVV's option as a means to agree on a high upfront number and a lower figure in the out years. I think that would be a win win now that we don't have any need for cap space that first year.
If Amen and Reed are Mark Price and Magic Johnson, FVV is Michael Jordan. Also, FVV is significantly better than Kerr and Grant were. Kerr and Grant are just lucky to have played with Jordan.
In that scenario, Freddy may stay anyways because I honestly don't see that big of a market for him outside of Houston. There are very few teams who are in our situation: so much raw talent, but no one to facilitate and mentor everyone. Even OKC has their guy with SGA, so they wouldn't need a PG like Freddy. Most "really good team on the verge of breaking out" situations don't need someone to come in and be ball dominant like he is. I think he was such a good fit here and will continue to be so compared to other teams he might go to. I mean he could chase the bag, but I feel like we already gave it to him.
