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Climate-Related Disasters

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by rimrocker, Jun 5, 2023.

  1. Mango

    Mango Member

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  2. Buck Turgidson

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    Nobody, not the TCEQ, not the Railroad Commission...NOBODY gives a **** about abandoned wells. They literally just do not care.

    If you're not pissed off enough yet, read that Tribune article I posted above.
     
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  3. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Buck Turgidson

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    LOL
     
  5. Xerobull

    Xerobull ...and I'm all out of bubblegum
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    Thanks for the check, @rimrocker:


    An ‘Unidentified Seismic Object’ Shook Earth for Nine Days—Now We Know What It Was

    Scientists have traced a baffling monotonous planetary hum that lasted for nine days back to a glacier in Greenland

    BY STEPHEN HICKS, KRISTIAN SVENNEVIG & THE CONVERSATION US

    [​IMG]
    Dickson Fjord before (August 2023) (left) and after (September 2023) (right) the landslide.

    Søren Rysgaard (left); Danish Army (right)
    The following essay is reprinted with permission from [​IMG]The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.

    Earthquake scientists detected an unusual signal on monitoring stations used to detect seismic activity during September 2023. We saw it on sensors everywhere, from the Arctic to Antarctica.

    We were baffled – the signal was unlike any previously recorded. Instead of the frequency-rich rumble typical of earthquakes, this was a monotonous hum, containing only a single vibration frequency. Even more puzzling was that the signal kept going for nine days.

    Initially classified as a “USO” – an unidentified seismic object – the source of the signal was eventually traced back to a massive landslide in Greenland’s remote Dickson Fjord. A staggering volume of rock and ice, enough to fill 10,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, plunged into the fjord, triggering a 200-metre-high mega-tsunami and a phenomenon known as a seiche: a wave in the icy fjord that continued to slosh back and forth, some 10,000 times over nine days.

    To put the tsunami in context, that 200-metre wave was double the height of the tower that houses Big Ben in London and many times higher than anything recorded after massive undersea earthquakes in Indonesia in 2004 (the Boxing Day tsunami) or Japan in 2011 (the tsunami which hit Fukushima nuclear plant). It was perhaps the tallest wave anywhere on Earth since 1980.

    [​IMG]
    Pre- (30 minutes before) and post-landslide (7 minutes after) Planet Labs satellite images.




    Planet Labs (CC BY-SA 4.0)
    Our discovery, now published in the journal Science, relied on collaboration with 66 other scientists from 40 institutions across 15 countries. Much like an air crash investigation, solving this mystery required putting many diverse pieces of evidence together, from a treasure trove of seismic data, to satellite imagery, in-fjord water level monitors, and detailed simulations of how the tsunami wave evolved.

    This all highlighted a catastrophic, cascading chain of events, from decades to seconds before the collapse. The landslide travelled down a very steep glacier in a narrow gully before plunging into a narrow, confined fjord. Ultimately though it was decades of global heating that had thinned the glacier by several tens of meters, meaning that the mountain towering above it could no longer be held up.

    UNCHARTED WATERS
    But beyond the weirdness of this scientific marvel, this event underscores a deeper and more unsettling truth: climate change is reshaping our planet and our scientific methods in ways we are only beginning to understand.

    It is a stark reminder that we are navigating uncharted waters. Just a year ago, the idea that a seiche could persist for nine days would have been dismissed as absurd. Similarly, a century ago, the notion that warming could destabilise slopes in the Arctic, leading to massive landslides and tsunamis happening almost yearly, would have been considered far-fetched. Yet, these once-unthinkable events are now becoming our new reality.

    As we move deeper into this new era, we can expect to witness more phenomena that defy our previous understanding, simply because our experience does not encompass the extreme conditions we are now encountering. We found a nine-day wave that previously no one could imagine could exist.

    [​IMG]
    Before and after the landslide and tsunami.
    Søren Rysgaard (left); Danish Army (right)
    Traditionally, discussions about climate change have focused on us looking upwards and outwards to the atmosphere and to the oceans with shifting weather patterns, and rising sea levels. But Dickson Fjord forces us to look downward, to the very crust beneath our feet.

    For perhaps the first time, climate change has triggered a seismic event with global implications. The landslide in Greenland sent vibrations through the Earth, shaking the planet and generating seismic waves that travelled all around the globe, within an hour of the event. No piece of ground beneath our feet was immune to these vibrations, metaphorically opening up fissures in our understanding of these events.

    THIS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN
    Although landslide-tsunamis have been recorded before, the one in September 2023 was the first ever seen in east Greenland, an area that had appeared immune to these catastrophic climate change induced events.

    This certainly won’t be the last such landslide-megatsunami. As permafrost on steep slopes continues to warm and glaciers continue to thin we can expect these events to happen more often and on an even bigger scale across the world’s polar and mountainous regions. Recently identified unstable slopes in west Greenland and in Alaska are clear examples of looming disasters.

    As we confront these extreme and unexpected events, it is becoming clear that our existing scientific methods and toolkits may need to be fully equipped to deal with them. We had no standard workflow to analyse 2023 Greenland event. We also must adopt a new mindset because our current understanding is shaped by a now near-extinct, previously stable climate.

    As we continue to alter our planet’s climate, we must be prepared for unexpected phenomena that challenge our current understanding and demand new ways of thinking. The ground beneath us is shaking, both literally and figuratively. While the scientific community must adapt and pave the way for informed decisions, it’s up to decision-makers to act.
     
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  6. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Leaky old wells are why gas are likely as "dirty" as coal on the aggregate. :(
     
  7. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Interesting VOX article on climate havens (there are none). A few excerpts:

    The Census Bureau estimates that as climate change warms the planet over the next several decades, 100 million will migrate into and around the US. Increased flood risk may have already pushed several million people out of coastal and low-lying areas across the US, as wildfires start to raise questions about migration in the West.

    “The idea of a climate refuge itself is kind of an escapist fantasy,” said Billy Fleming, director of the McHarg Center at the University of Pennsylvania. “To the extent that a climate refuge even exists, it’s not a particularly physical or geophysical phenomenon. It’s social and economic.”

    Climate risk is a complicated equation that complicates the already difficult and complex calculus of buying a home. Better access to data about risk can help, and a bit more transparency about the insurance aspect of homeownership is especially useful, as the industry struggles to adapt to our warming world and the disasters that come with it.

    https://www.vox.com/climate/377199/...ven-risk?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
     
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  8. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    So you're telling me we don't have a chance?
     
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  9. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Not at all. However, you can't be willfully oblivious and must make the best choices you can.
     
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  10. Buck Turgidson

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    If you had $10M where would you move to?
     
  11. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    I'd take $1 million and move to Portugal. After 5 years of residency, you can apply for citizenship. That makes you an EU citizen in 5-7 years, which means you can move anywhere in the EU. That's faster than most other countries. Portugal also recognizes dual citizenship, so you can keep your US citizenship. This gives you $9 million to buy one place or 2-3 if you want to increase your odds. You can live anywhere in the US or the EU, which gives you more than double the size of the lower 48 and currently, 27 additional options for good government. If you're going to bet on another place, you need to place the bet soon because the best places will be too expensive for most in just a few years. I suspect it will be a sudden change more than a gradual one.

    In Portugal, I'd live in the north due to ocean influence bringing more rain and generally cooler temps. In Spain, I'd live near the northern coast because you get more rain. In France, I'd live in Brittany or Normandy, again because of the ocean influence. Parts of Norway, Finland, and Sweden would be OK. I would not live in Greece, Italy, or Malta. UK will have water problems into the future--it's not a big place but there are a lot of people on the island and they all need to go to the bathroom, which is causing havoc with their water supplies--they have a lot of work to do. Parts of interior Europe might be OK depending on governance issues, but you run the risk of more severe heatwaves and drought.

    In the US, I'd look for water and good government along with or near a strong university or well-educated populace because you will need a community full of expertise and intelligence to adapt and change. Also, strong local agriculture. I like the Oregon Coast, but inland a bit because you will get a tsunami at some point and the whole reason for this exercise (as far as I'm concerned) is to find a place for kids and grandkids to live their best lives. I'd probably end up somewhere around Newport or Astoria. Vermont, NH, and Maine will probably be a good bet, but all the East Coast money will reach that same conclusion and price a lot of folks out of the best areas. Upper Midwest is a popular choice and has a lot going for it as far as trends go, but I can't shake the vibe that there are better places. SoCal, the SW, Florida, much of the Gulf Coast, and good chunks of the southern-SE states are dead men walking. The combo of heat and/or humidity will be tough to overcome. Plus, you know, tornadoes and hurricanes. Interior West is not a good choice because of the certainty or drought, lack of drinking water, and fire.

    I don't know enough about South America or Asia to make a guess there. New Zealand is a popular choice right now, but they are tough to get into. Australia is mostly desert and has some drought and fire trends that make it suspect. Of course, there will probably be a place somewhere in Africa that nobody recognizes now but will have everyone flock to it in 20 years.

    All that said, if you don't care about leaving a legacy to kids and grandkids, pick the place you think you'll be happiest and go for it.
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    Brilliant. Let's talk more later.
     
  13. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Do you have any particular thoughts about Canada?
     
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Not really. It seems the less radical of a move for an American, but it only gives you one additional option for governance. Some potentially good places, but I would stick to places with good, sustainable water. I would caution anyone who thinks the wheat farms are just going to move north from the US as Canada warms. Canada has a Climate Atlas and it shows every major city with a substantial increase in days over 30C (86F) in the coming years. Still, that would put many of them on par with places like current Denver or current Memphis for summertime temps.

    Pro tip: Midwest winters aren't what they used to be, though of course you get a storm every so often. The temps are milder than they were even a decade ago. We'll continue to see fluctuations as the warming atmosphere upsets the traditional balance between southern warm and northern cool and subsequently alters the flow and predictability of the jet stream.
     
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  15. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    @rimrocker any thoughts around the Great Lakes?
     
  16. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Of the three US areas with some projected advantages--PNW coast, New England, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes--the Great Lakes is much more affordable right now. You can buy some acreage near Duluth or Marquette for not too much and land is cheaper away from the larger towns. You can have decent farming land and fresh water. The winters are still bad but getting less harsh. It might be worth it to buy some land now and sit on it for a bit.

    Related, I think we will soon see families and friends chipping in and buying a place or two together. 60 acres on or near Lake Superior/Northern Lake Michigan/Northern Lake Huron could conceivably be the start of a solid family compound with a good well and enough arable land to support a small group. I have some friends in Rhinelander, WI and they are convinced they are in a good place.
     
  17. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    There been a lot of talk Duluth, Mn being a climate refuges the Daily show even did a thing about it.


    Was just up in northern Minnesota yesterday near there and it is beautiful right now. It’s leaks leaf color now. Also we’re having another warm fall. Temps are in the 70’s right now even in northern MN.
     
  18. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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  19. Buck Turgidson

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    #479 Buck Turgidson, Nov 2, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2024
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  20. Buck Turgidson

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