Incredible progress in just seven months. Jalen is going to be a top 5 SG in the league this season. You can count on that and never stop believing in him.
If Jalen truly becomes a #1 scoring option, then, I mean, we're done, right? I'm not saying we'll be competing for a title this year, but the rebuild would be done. We'd have our guard scoring threat (Jalen), our franchise center and offensive hub (Sengun), and our Swiss army knife forward (Thompson). We'd also have complementary players in Bari, Sheppard, and Tari. Jalen figuring it out would also mean we can preserve our draft assets, which, in the second apron world, will be incredibly valuable. In other words, please become that guy, Jalen!
This is all true and encouraging, but he was not the Main option he was one of the teams options. So, is that good enough to give him the max? That is what is at stake, here. DD
I wouldn't say were were "done" but I would say that we're then at the stage where we evaluate the rest of the roster based on "fit" around that core. For example, is Bari who we'd want as a long-term starter? Do we bank on Reed replacing Fred's role, or do we keep Fred for the long term? Where does Amen actually slot in as a "does it all" is that at the 1 or the 3/4 and depending on the answer to that question, who steps into the other spot? It's all-round the best thing that could happen is that Jalen does prove he's the #1 scoring option and him and Alpi are our all-star duo, because once that's definitely the "hard part" of the rebuild sorted, and we can then move onto the next stage of refining the squad into a championship contender.
KPJ's #1 dickrider: "Jalen was not the main option" Jalen Green: Took the most shots and scored the most points in preseason as the MAIN ****ING OPTION. Literally attemped 25 more shots than the next option down. Gotta run them bullshit narratives though if you're going to spin your bullshit of "KPJ has more star power" (10ppg in preseason) and "Cam is a superstar in the making and will take Jalen's spot easily" (literally moved wayyy down in the rotation.) It must really hurt always being so wrong whilst claiming to be an "expert."
How was he not our main option? He was our leading scorer by a healthy margin. 20.5 ppg in 24 minutes is over 26 ppg if extrapolated to regular starter’s minutes. 26 ppg would have put him in the top 10 of scorers last season.
I'd put Jalen's odds at getting the max at less than 5%. He has the ability but not the consistency and one year of consistent ball won't be enough to really change that perception. Again....we're not the ones making the decision and there are likely things that they've seen that we haven't. Let's say Jalen plays like he did this pre-season where 75% of his games are very good and his overall average for the season turns out to be just like pre-season (a little extended because his minutes were limited). So something along 24 PPG/4 RPG/3 APG on 44% from the field and 40% from 3. What do we do? With his ability to get to the rim and create separation along with his age, that's a max level player with those stats (probably). But we've watched him for 3 years and are always waiting for the pendulum to swing (and frankly it always has). Do you trust him to continue that production after you give him a max deal? He's also the only other player to have to truly endure the absolute dross that was the Silas era (along with Sengun). Got to give the kid credit for that as well. It'd be a lie to say this team wouldn't be an absolute title contender if Jalen Green (and Amen Thompson/Sengun) produced like they did in the pre-season. There aren't *any* teams in the league that can deal with Amen/Jalen in transition. None. Zero. So we wait and see. He's going to go to RFA almost assuredly and they'll wait to see the offers he gets. I highly doubt any team gets close to a max offer sheet because you're then stuck with a potential Zach Lavine that you haven't personally watched for 3 years. And these days with this current CBA....that's a death sentence. They won't risk that. Or maybe some desperate team will. He's more maddening than Jeremy Lin was for sure. At least I always knew Jeremy didn't have superstar upside (like Rafer before him). He just kinda sucked. Jalen flashes and it's made him incredibly frustrating.
The idea that a 23 year old posting the stats you've suggested (24/4/3 with 40% shooting from 3) wouldn't get the rookie extension max from someone is crazy. Lavine got his first big contract the summer after his first ACL tear and surgery. He signed a 5 year max after his second surgery on the same knee. Jalen is young, talented, and has remained healthy. You add the sort of productive season you discussed? Forget about it. Hell, Wiggins got the rookie extension max even when he sucked. I think people forget that the free agent market is barren these days, especially in terms of young, productive, talented guys.
I feel you but @Corrosion is definitely above the vultures. He's earned that. I think he's just confusing symptoms with the causes which makes the problem seem bigger to him which in turn will make him extra doubtful about Green. It makes him think we must be oblivious to a big bunch of facts. The truth is we and him aren't happy with Jalen's efficiency thus far. We don't agree on the reasons. People like me and you take the next step: now that we've studied the negatives, is there anything in the data to suggest that this is an outlier situation That's when we go into systemic and situational analysis for context. What about system? What about tactical coaching? Development coaching? Culture? How did urger Ignite players fare? Did he have mentors? Is there anything to show he doesn't care or is lazy? How has he responded to Udoka? Did he embrace difficult coaching or reject it? How does Udoka feel about it? How does his situation compare with other prospects on tanking teams - did they also lack veterans, mentors, development environment and culture? Was their GM coming to practices to ensure we lose games? For Corrosion it seems that he equates context with excuses. He doesn't place much weight on these things in his overall analysis. Perhaps he thinks context is an excuse. Instead, after recognizing the cause, for some reason he then went about capturing the symptoms as though they're additional things to fix. Taking a picture from another angle and getting upset at that. In reality he nailed it at the start - if Green improves his selection, there will be fewer low efficiency games. You can't reverse engineer it. You can't sustainably have lower efficiency games that will result in better shot selection. That's the relationship of cause and symptom. Most importantly, despite the tower of evidence he presents, he's still not committed to the idea that Jalen won't make it. So confusing. Anyhow, they have a few more days to do this. It's going to be brutal for them. They're thinking there going to wave the "who saw it coming" or "thank god the data was wrong" flag. That's no excuse. I am saying the data (when including context) shows he struggled with efficiency but there are clear indications of something unusual. His ceiling - sometimes for a month at a time - shows something that does not jive with the idea that he can't figure it out. It seems to be just a matter of recognizing how to keep Let's see if he'll commit to whether Jalen will do what he wants or not (improves shot selection).
If Jalen is averaging that he is 100% max worthy. 25/4/3 44% fg, 40% 3 is elite. Devin Booker avg 27/4/7 shooting 47%fg and 33% from 3 at age 23 just an FYI.
First off he has to do it. His October/November/Mid December stint will be the two most important months of his career. Secondly, Lavine is a good example of betting on the wrong horse. Wiggins as well. Simmons is another. Then there's the disastrous Jordan Poole extension a few years ago which SI graded an "A". https://www.si.com/nba/2022/10/15/g...ordan Poole won't be,assists per game in 2022. Teams are learning from those mistakes. Would Jalen posting those stats mean he's finally turned the corner or does it mean he performed simply because it was a contract year? There might be a team out there that won't care. There might not. The margins for error are getting smaller. Much much smaller. It would still be a risk. But Cade Cunningham and Franz Wagner got max deals so you could be right. I think the Magic/Pistons ultimately regret those deals in a few years though. I'd be pretty ecstatic if we're sitting here in 5 months discussing if Jalen is worth the max because he posted that stat line.
Just stay at the kids table kiddo....we are having adult conversations about contracts. It is too much for your wittle bitty Bwain to understand. DD
